Hiss or Miss? 5 Trends for the Year of The Snake

Hiss or Miss? 5 Trends for the Year of The Snake

By Debra Tan, Dawn McGregor, Chien Tat Low, Dharisha Mirando, Sophie Lam, Yisih Chai 24 February, 2025

The Wood Snake, simultaneously opportunistic & dangerous, slithers us into a year of escalating climate risks & volatile global politics. Will 2025 be a hiss or miss? Don't slide backwards, 'ladder up' with our 5 trends for 2025

Welcome to the year of the Wood Snake. The snake symbolises wisdom, growth & longevity and the wood element, flexibility & tolerance. Additionally, snakes are seen as a powerful symbol of rebirth and rejuvenation with their ability to shed their skin. All this is rather apt given our new climate normal and volatile global developments.

Snakes are simultaneously opportunistic & dangerous – will 2025 bring a powerful rebirth or a venomous bite?

But we must be cautious in 2025 as snakes are simultaneously opportunistic & dangerous. And even more, in Western culture, snakes are often associated with temptation, sin and evil forces, famously symbolised by the serpent in the Bible who lured Eve into eating the forbidden fruit. So, will 2025 bring a powerful rebirth or a venomous bite? Before we dive into whether it’s a hiss or miss, let’s take a look how we fared with our predictions for the Year of the Dragon…

What we said in the Year of the Dragon…

We said, “broken records will be the new norm in 2024” and that “scorched earth forces us to up adaptation efforts” – sadly we were right. The tail of the Dragon literally brought apocalyptic fires upon LA before Chinese New Year and “doomsday prepping” did enter mainstream dinner conversation as predicted – “is my home safe? Where shall I move? Will my insurance cover losses?”

We said, “broken records will be the new norm in 2024″…

…sadly we were right

Stark gaps in adaptation measures were shown from extreme floods in Valencia, which resulted more than US$1bn in economic damage to Typhoon Yagi which displaced 800k across Asia. We even had drought (rather than geopolitics) choke $270bn in trade in the Panama Canal. We’re simply not ready.

With global annual heating exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in 2024, it’s harder and harder to ignore these gaps in adaptation & insurance in the year of the Snake – see our predictions here in Trend #1 below.

Our Dragon prediction #2 – “With wars escalating and continuing tense geopolitics … we are arguably tracking SSP3” – proved distressingly accurate. While CO₂ levels ended up at 422.1ppm for the year, highs of 428ppm were hit several times in 2024. If CO₂ continues to rise at the current rate levels we will hit 600-670ppm resulting in 3-3.5°C of warming by 2100 – basically, we’re on track for SSP3. This highlights the need to stress test with SSP3 as the base case but are companies facing this reality? Spotlights will be thrown on this by the cunning Snake – more in Trend #2 later.

Accelerated global heating also resulted Dragon Trend #3 – “ice kingdom cracks & the mighty ice dragon awakes to unleash unimaginable havoc” coming true in the form of faster melting ice resulting in sooner and higher sea level rise (SLR). If you haven’t been following – read this – it’s much worse than we imagined!

Also, our oceans are heating up, soaring to a new paradigm in 2024 – adding to thermal expansion, another key component of sea level rise. It’s bad … ice scientists are very worried, which we saw first-hand at COP29. Indeed, the ICCI’s State of the Cryosphere 2024 report now warns that 1m by 2070 is now possible if emissions continue. The writing is clear on the wall: adapt now or watch billions in assets sink – more on this in Trends #2 & #3 for the year of the Snake later.

Adaptation funding gap now US$187-359bn/yr – we expect to see co’s pick up the slack

So, where’s the money to protect us from these rising risks? At COP29 rich nations pledged to increase climate finance for developing countries to “at least” $300bn per year by 2035, which Global South negotiators said was and “insultingly low”. Meanwhile, the adaptation funding gap is increasing and now stands at US$187-359bn per year. So lots of heavy lifting on adaptation is still needed and we expect to see companies pick up the slack in the year of the Snake – more in Trend #2.

Fanning the flames that’s causing rapid ice melt and rising risk gaps is oil demand, which after an early-year dip, climbed back up due to colder weather, cheaper fuel, and abundant chemical feedstocks; more oil was produced in 2024 than any previous year. Global demand for natural gas is also increasing; at a stronger rate in 2024 than in the previous two years and is forecasted to grow at 2.5% in 2025. Thankfully, coal demand & production is expected to plateau in the next three years and in most advanced economies coal demand has already peaked & expected to decrease through 2027.

More oil produced in 2024 than any previous year + natural gas demand increasing – clearly more needs to be done to curb fossil fuels

Clearly more needs to be done to curb fossil fuels – accelerated threats demand a rethink. In response, we launched the “CWR Accelerated Threat Series”. First, we tackled the thirsty & power-hungry internet sector seeking to make it a green finance sector; next we used accelerating coastal threats to push for a rethink of oil reliance as well as the early retirement of coastal coal-fired power plants as these may no longer provide energy security.

Some good news – after a year of intense engagement, ICT will now be incl in HK’s green taxonomy

Here, we rode the Dragon and fired up engagement across multiple stakeholders to fast track transition with our ICT reports on transition & water risks. After a year of intense engagement, the ICT sector will now be included in Hong Kong’s green taxonomy. On rethinking oil, we are pleased to see our Crude Awakening report reach the global centre stage with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres saying that “the world’s biggest ports for oil supertankers will be overwhelmed by rising sea levels” in his 2025 Special Address at Davos; even the FT cited our report on Coastal Blackout.

We’re on fire! And now that these conversations are lit, we see the Snake churn up “grand rethinks” across these – see Snake Trends #3 & #4 below for more. Separately, we also saw progress in fashion through our involvement with initiatives like SmthGood’s platform and NTU’s inaugural Decarbonisation Summit that had fashion as one of three workstreams.

Finally, the Dragon did also “soar to new heights & take a flight through innovation” on the green front, especially in China. “The Middle Kingdom” did “channel the dragon” to dominate global clean energy expansion with 373 million kW of renewable energy coming online last year – this is enough to power Japan. At the end of 2024, this mega year-on-year growth of 23% meant that China’s hit its 2030 target for wind and solar capacity an impressive six years ahead of plan! Also, China first national energy law prioritising renewables took effect in November 2024. Plus, EV adoption continue to rise – In 2024, the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 40.9% of the total sales of new cars, an increase of 9.3%  from 2023.

“The Middle Kingdom” did “channel the dragon” to dominate global clean energy expansion – 373mn kW of RE came online last yr!

Indeed, the UN Emissions Gap Report 2024 confirms China is on track with its NDC targets with existing policies. The same cannot be said for the US, which the UN says is “less likely” to achieve its NDC under current policies. President Trump pulling the US out of the Paris Agreement at the tail of the Dragon will likely only widen the US’ implementation gap. Such moves by the US will only force others to reposition in the climate fight, rebalancing the disharmony in the Snake year – more below on this in Trend #5.

As you can see, many trends in the Dragon year will flow into the Snake year – this is because龙蛇同源 (Lóng Shé Tóng Yuan) “Dragons and Snakes Share the Same Origins”.  Actions/events in the year of the Snake will build on those in the Dragon – taking them the next stage of transformation. So, harness the harmony and unity between these two powerful symbols as we move from the Dragon to the Snake…

Enter the Snake…

The Wood Snake holds the promise of wisdom, adaptability and intelligence. It’s also expected herald positive transformation as the world slithers into new beginnings – if are willing to move on, once can ride the wave of change; if they can’t, they will face difficulties fighting the inevitable.

As it’s all about renewal and regeneration, we’ve also transformed our website to better reflect the fast-evolving risk landscape. In an era marked by unprecedented accelerating water & climate threats, we 1) aim to unpack and value complex climate & water Risks; 2) Rethink transition & development to “slow down” these risks; and 3) adapt, adapt, adapt and build Resilience so that finance, corporates and governments can all make better decisions today for water tomorrow. And so, we have revamped our website to reflect these three R’s.

With climate water risk gaps widening, it’s now all about Climate & Water + 3Rs – Risk, Rethink & Resilience…

…so, join us to rethink Climate Water Risks for resilience at www.cwrrr.org.

Plus, since we have covered water risks beyond China since 2018 and have moved the conversation towards rethinking climate & water risk for resilience, www.chinawaterrisk.org no longer reflected what we’ve been doing or will be doing going forward. With climate water risk gaps ever widening, it’s now all about Climate & Water plus three Rs – Risk, Rethink & Resilience – so, join us to rethink Climate Water Risks for resilience at www.cwrrr.org.

But don’t worry, all the links to our old website still works. And … we’ll still cover China regulations with regular reviews/opinions on China. Plus, all the good old stuff – like our Resource library and 8 Things + 5 overviews are still there!

Change is difficult but we must evolve to stay ahead. It’s up to you whether you build on the lessons of the Dragon in the coming year … to avoid the pit full of venomous vipers and make 2025 a year of powerful rebirths & transformations, be sure when channelling the snake to hiss not miss with our 5 trends for the year of the Snake …

1. Snakes signal danger ahead! “Ladder up” with adaptation or risk sliding backwards …

Snakes represent danger across multiple cultures and with global heating records broken year after year, we are now in a dangerous world. Exceeding 1.5°C means >10% of global GDP (>US$10trn/yr) will be lost and >800mn deaths. With many of our planet’s climate systems relating to the cryosphere are now reaching their tipping points due to persistent global heating, its 三蛇七鼠 (sān shé qī shǔ), literally “3 snakes and 7 rats”. Today, all types of water risks are intensifying in frequency and magnitude – we are battling with more rain, bigger floods, longer droughts, stronger typhoons & rampant wildfires.

Yet, the worst is still to come. Risk gaps are ever widening – as risks are slithering ahead at top speed while adaptation efforts are stubbornly slow, or worse still lacking as we are not facing the reality of the new risk landscape. But if you can’t see the new climate water risk landscape how can you see opportunities ahead?

Take for example, insurance where systemic shifts are taking place. Already there are locations that are uninsurable as insurers are refusing to underwrite risks in fire/ flood prone areas. Such shifts will become more likely in the future putting pressure on mortgages which are typically predicated on such insurance, impacting asset valuations in these areas. As banks’ loan books will also suffer, they are also paying closer attention.

Persistent acute risks are already accelerating the end to insurance as we know it today, not tomorrow. But as traditional insurance products fade as they no longer work, other instruments like catastrophe bonds are on the rise. As are services & opportunities around these – from cat bond hedge funds to AI services that help map & predict risks to prepare & protect against imminent threats ahead.

It’s adapt or die for the insurance & banking sectors. But it’s not just finance, climate risks can make other sectors obsolete unless it innovates and transforms.

And as snakes are all about transforming and surviving, we expect corporates to “ladder up” with adaptation to avoid insurance premium hikes in the short term and preserve asset values in the longer term.

Here we see strong action led by the real estate sector as payback can be immediate for acting now as Link Asset Management shows – it was able to reduce its insurance premiums by stepping up flood adaptation. Check out our conversation with its Head of Sustainability and Risk Governance at Link Asset Management Limited.

However, neither insurers, banks nor corporates can reduce risks without government adaptation action. Here, we’re pleased to see the Real Estate Development Association (REDA) & the Hong Kong Federation of Insurers (HKFI) directly engage on city-wide adaptation plans with the government last year. And this year, we expect this continue with more gusto – not just catalysed by our new report (see Trend #2) but in response to rising threats which are existential for Hong Kong.

“Government action is key but we’ve yet to see transformative city-wide adaptation plans for HK”…

…don’t forget we are heading to 1m of SLR by 2070 if emissions continue – HK$1trn of assets are vulnerable as per the HKMA

As CWR’s director highlights: “Government action is key but we’ve yet to see transformative city-wide adaptation plans for HK to address existential threats from multi-metre sea level rise, which is becoming increasingly likely every year we don’t cut emissions.” Don’t forget we are heading to 1m of SLR by 2070 if emissions continue – already at 0.55m of SLR, HK$1trn of assets are vulnerable to typhoons & coastal flooding as per the HKMA.

The great game of snakes & ladders has started – corporates, industry sectors, finance & governments are all players – they can either ladder up by recognising the risk & building adaptation or risk sliding back to zero. The chance of sliding backwards is high as systemic shocks are abound – this is because slower moving risks like rising seas are now “fast-moving” – they can wipe out other sectors besides finance & real estate – see Trend #3. But all players have to recognise that they cannot win by themselves in this game – adaptation has to be collective to be effective.

There’s a long, long way to go … but in this ever shifting environment, it pays to stay on top of the science get on top of the 3 snakes and 7 rats with risk assessments  to understand exposure and unlock innovations and stress test right to see the range of impacts. The latter is especially key when acute risks are accelerating but as Trend #2 shows, not everyone is doing this well.

As the LA fires showed – binary threats are here – billions of dollars can be razed to the ground. Water is similar – you either have it or you don’t – we must be prepared. Building resilience is now an essential priority. Resilience is not just about surviving immediate shocks but sustaining long-term operational stability and growth. It’s not just about adapting hard infrastructure, people too must be readied for climate risks, emergency services coordinated and early warning as well as response systems in place. All these must be adapted for the climate that we are and will face.

To meet these daunting tasks, leverage the year of the Snake to transform and adapt, adapt, adapt like crazy to preserve value and financial stability. But make sure efforts on this front are commensurate to the risks ahead as the wrong step may bring maladaptation, write downs & even doom. If you don’t know where to start, we can help you value and benchmark threats ahead; after all we do have at least an entire zodiac cycle’s worth of experience!

2. No more forked tongues! Channel the holistic nature of the Snake to align climate (transition & adaptation) strategies …

The snake eating its own tail is an ancient symbol of the eternal cyclic renewal representing duality as well as completeness, analogous to the holistic balance of the yin yang symbol. But its slippery nature also indicates flexibility allowing it to slither away from danger. These are two qualities we have to harness to in times of escalating risks – strategies must be holistic to address the complex & interlinked climate water risks but they must also be flexible to address the fast-evolving nature of the climate water risk landscape.

At times like these, we are all more than ever at risk of adopting misaligned climate strategies…

…not stress testing properly could result in maladaptation planning & misinformed investment decisions

At times like these, we are all more than ever at risk of adopting misaligned climate strategies – from inadequately disclosing on emissions & physical risk impacts, to not stress testing properly for the real risks ahead which could ultimately result in maladaptation planning and misinformed investment decisions.

On all fronts, we are off to a slippery start – even the top tycoons in Hong Kong are behind. Our report reveals that the Top 4 HK developers are ill-prepared for climate risks – their “no sense climate strategies” today could lead to material write downs write downs for tycoons with significant stakes in listed companies with assets worth over HK$2.3trn (US$295bn).

As CWR’s director noted, “The stakes are high – up to 18% of a single developer’s assets are on track to be permanently submerged by 1m of SLR which scientists now say can occur by 2070 if emissions continue.” Clearly, we must start preparing prioritise transition & climate risk defence now.

So how did we gauge if the listco’s were ready for the threats ahead? We reviewed them to see if 1) physical risks pertaining to coastal threats disclosed by the listco’s are realistic; 2) whether adaptation strategies match the risks that lie ahead; and 3) how transition is progressing as this will “slow down” escalating climate risks.

We found “stark gaps on multiple fronts” from stress testing methodologies, sampling issues, tool selection plus one even failed to evaluate significant chronic risks like sea level rise. These developers will face significant impacts from SLR, and their actions – or inactions – could determine whether Hong Kong sinks or swims. Get all the details and see how each real estate listco’ fared – access the press release, report, or company factsheets.

37-56% of HK’s Top 4 developers’ props are at risk from storm surges today..

…but current disclosure is far from perfect making benchmarking difficult

But it’s not just developers who must pay attention. When 37-56% of the Top 4 developer’s properties could be at risk from “unlucky” storm tides today – it matters for the financial regulators that companies are disclosing material risks properly today and not tomorrow. However, our report showed that current disclosure is far from perfect making benchmarking difficult. In short, the 4 listco’s are still disclosing in “forked tongues” masking the real risks ahead.

As they are unlikely to improve themselves, we call on regulators to set better guidelines to standardise stress testing to ensure they are comparable and credible. A strong push on this front is on the cards as Hong Kong heads for full adoption of the ISSB Standards no later than 2028 for large publicly accountable entities, while Mainland China aims for mandatory disclosure by 2030. Already, HK large caps face “comply or explain” for some aspects from 1 January 2025 with more becoming mandatory in 2026. Over in Singapore, some aspects are already mandatory for FY2025.

But beware, risks are escalating at a rate that outpace risk assessment tools & make them outdated – resulting in underestimation…

…if you don’t know where to start, we can help

This movement toward mandatory climate disclosure will bring opportunities for consultants, auditors, stress testing experts as well as tool developers. But beware, physical risks are now escalating at a rate that outpace risk assessment tools making many of them outdated resulting in an underestimation of the real risks ahead.

Also, there is a tendency towards using one-size-fits-all tools resulting in quality trade-offs – this was from our report – as the lead author of the report said some companies were “let down by the quality of its stress testing and tools used resulting in massive risk gaps” – see which here. If you don’t know where to start, we can help – after all we helped set some of the global disclosure guidelines/frameworks related to water risks including coastal threats.

Once we face the reality of the real threats ahead, we have the daunting task of drawing up adaptation plans – on this front, governments, city planners, regulators, companies & banks are still far apart. We also have to face the hard truth that we cannot adapt our way out as we’ll hit hard limits on adaptation. This is why we must have aggressive transition plans – rapid decarbonisation is the only thing that can slow down rising risks. Transition is in a way the best for of adaptation … it’s all connected – the head of the snake is eating the tail.  Don’t wait, leverage the snake to transform – get holistic and start your transformative resilience journey now.

3. Be Snake Smart! Rethink energy security & development to preserve the ice kingdom…

Even 1.5°C of warming is dangerous for ice. Our cryosphere is crying for help today and its plea can no longer be ignored. From the towering glaciers of the Himalayas to the vast ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, the rapid acceleration of ice melt is a stark reminder of the climate crisis we face.

Greenland ice losses are tracking IPCC’s worst-case projections…

…+ East Antarctic Ice Sheet, long thought stable, is now destabilizing…

The ice kingdom doesn’t just have cracks … everything is now on thin ice – Greenland Ice Sheet losses are mind-blowing, tracking the IPCC’s worst-case sea level rise projections plus we can no longer save the West Antarctica Ice Sheet from melting but only slow it down through emission cuts. Worst still, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, long thought to be stable, is now destabilizing. Check our update or see what ICCI’s chief scientist has to say.

Everything is on thin ice now

It’s all very bad news … ice sheet melt will unleash ‘higher & sooner’ SLR that will devastate Asia’s populations across island nations or clustered in coastal capitals, mega-cites & economic trading hubs. 1m will impact 200mn Asians – this can now happen by 2070 if emissions continue. But as sea levels do not rise evenly, regional disparities in SLR mean we may see these levels earlier.

Ironically oil trade, key culprit in speeding SLR, will also suffer – 12 of top 15 oil ports can be underwater by 2070, disrupting 2/3 of global oil trade carried by sea…

..no doubt, 2025 will see a grand rethink of energy security…

Ironically the global oil trade, a key culprit in speeding up SLR, will also suffer. If emissions continue, 12 of the top 15 oil ports can be underwater before 2070, disrupting two-thirds of the global oil trade carried by sea. Our analysis showed that Japan & South Korea could face energy insecurity as key ports receiving significant shares of oil imports are also vulnerable to 1m of SLR.

So even oil, once a cornerstone of energy security, now poses a threat – we must transition out of oil faster to slow down fast rising seas.

No doubt, 2025 will see a grand rethink of energy security and we’ve revamped our website to leverage the momentum of this rethink in the coming the Snake Year. The fact that the UN Secretary-General is now talking about this paradigm shift a clear signal that this oil rethink is on the cards.

But beyond energy, we also have to rethink development across Asia as we are operating in a tight water-energy-climate nexus. If emissions continue our Himalayan ice banks that provide water to 1 in 2 Asians may no longer hold, resulting in peak water by 2050 for 10 major rivers. Power supply will also be impacted as over 90% of the power assets located in river basins require water to generate electricity. Coastal power assets will also be impacted – sizeable chunks are vulnerable to 1m of SLR.

Mountain glaciers lost an average of 273Gt of ice per year during 2000-2023 – the author of this 2025 Nature paper said that this ice loss in a single year is equivalent to the total water consumption of the entire global population over 30 years, assuming 3L of water per day.

…but we have to also rethink dev across Asia as we are operating in a tight water-energy-climate nexus

Also alarming, is a recent Singapore study that points to 1.9m of SLR by 2100 if emissions continue. This growing body of research signals that we’re now likely tracking the IPCC’s “cannot be ruled out” scenario of 2m and 5m SLR by 2100 and 2150. Terrifying indeed.

For many in Asia, the cryosphere and its implications for rising seas or freshwater reserves have long been out of sight and out of mind. But this is no longer the case. The impacts of melting ice are slithering closer to home, like sea snakes rising from the depths, poised to unleash devastation. It’s a slippery slope … once we unleash this pit of vipers, there’s no putting them back.

We may have already caused the tipping point for permafrost. Abrupt permafrost thaw emissions are not accounted in our carbon budget as we did not expect it to thaw today. Worse still, the Arctic-boreal permafrost region is now a net source of GHG warming and these emissions will rise if warming persists. Even if we can magically deliver negative emissions, a new 2025 study now shows permafrost regions could release around 14Gt of carbon, further exacerbating climate change and undermining mitigation efforts.

To avoid further crossing key tipping points, we’ll be unpacking these complex “hidden” cryosphere risks from SLR, to freshwater reserves, ocean currents plus more next month on the World Day for Glaciers – so stay tuned!

4. Shedding skins! New emerging green finance sectors, building makeovers + positive water strategies

As 2°C is too hot for ice, we must work harder to cut emissions to stay within 1.5°C. We are very far from delivering the 43% emission cuts from 2019 levels by 2030 to stay within this threshold – so far, projected cuts as per all NDCs will only deliver a mere 2.6% by 2030. This means we still need to deliver cuts of over 20GtCO2e which is not possible without rethinking development, energy and green finance. As we’ve discussed rethinking development above, we now turn to green finance.

So far, projected cuts as per all NDCs will only deliver 2.6% by 2030 = we still need to cut >20GtCO2e…

Green finance too needs a rethink. And with the Snakes ability to transform/shed its skin this is the opportune time. This transformation means moving beyond the normal carbon intensive hard to abate sectors of cement, steel & shipping to seize up to 14% of global GHG emissions in new emerging green finance sectors which have yet be created.

…& with the Snakes ability to transform & shed its skin this is the opportune time…

…we have to seize up to 14% of GHG emissions in new emerging green finance sectors which have yet be created

ICT is one such critical sector that must go green. It’s power hungry and the exponential growth of generative AI/5G/fintech/digital lifestyles only means that data centres which currently account 2-4% of global GHG emissions could balloon to 23% by 2030! By the way, 2-4% of global GHG emissions is similar to emissions from global shipping.

We kickstarted our work to help ICT shed its skin and emerge as a new green finance sector with our China ICT report in 2023. And after a year of powerful engagement in the Dragon, the sector is now poised to become a new green finance sector in the year of the Snake. Driving this in 2025 is Hong Kong’s Green and Sustainable Finance Cross-Agency Steering Group co-chaired by the SFC and HKMA, which has a transition finance workstream developing transition finance sectoral principles with ICT as the pilot sector.

ICT is critical – data centers’ GHG emissions (2-4% now, same as shipping), could surge to 23% by 2030

We will thus continue to engage on this front in Hong Kong and beyond. We are especially worried about the ASEAN region where data centres still run on coal-fired power yet, expansion rates can be as high as 25% per year. For example, Malaysia has attracted billions in investments for data centres amid increasing global demand – Microsoft and Google recently announced investments in the country of over US$4.2bn. Johor Bahru is the fastest growing data centre market in Southeast Asia.

But it’s not just power, there are also concerns on the impact to water resources from this growth. Johor Bahru City Council Mayor said in May 2024 that domestic needs should not be compromised by such investments, especially given the significant challenges with water and power supply in Johor. Indeed, in our 2024 report “China ICT running dry?”, we found that China’s 4.3mn data centre racks use ~1.3bn m³ of water but this could be 2x by 2030 or surge to 20x with AI which = the water use of 500mn people! If data centre growth is left unchecked, water risks will increase and could even threaten national water security.

We expect to see more focus & action from co’s to protect the watersheds/ basin they rely on – without sustainable ones there is netiher resilience nor long-term operational stability or growth

So, power & water risks must be considered holistically and corporate expansion strategies must take into account the watershed. Here, we expect to see more focus & action from corporates to protect the watersheds/ basins they rely on because without sustainable watersheds/ basins there is netiher resilience nor long-term operational stability or growth. This will take the form of ICT giants setting water neutral/ positive targets, which in Asia is nascent but growing – we know because we’re helping global ICT players.

But it’s not just the ICT sector moving on watershed protection and risk mitigation strategies, other high water use sectors such as F&B and Fashion are also moving ahead – get in touch if you want to know more or need help with your strategy curation. Governments too are thinking “big” on the water front – how they can use regulations to get corporates to pay for use and pay to pollute.

Besides risks, water can also provide opportunities. Cleaning and supplying water uses power – a lot of it. Carbon emissions from the power hungry water sector are sizable, estimated at 2% of global GHG emissions – this is similar to global aviation emissions! However, if we were to look at overall water management (wastewater treatment, emissions from surface water bodies, degradation of wetlands+), emissions balloon to 10% of global GHGs – this is close to 6GtCO2e which is the emissions of the US!

Yet, unlike high emitting sectors, water (like ICT) has not been prioritised for transition

Yet, unlike other high emitting sectors, the water sector (like ICT) has not been prioritised for transition. We are seeking funding to make this happen (just like we did for ICT) … contact us if you want to collaborate on shedding skins to fast track “net zero water”!

We are seeking funding to make this happen…contact us if you want to collaborate on shedding skins to fast track “net zero water”!

There’s no time to waste as once tipping points are crossed, we cannot “undo” rising seas; as it we’re already skating on thin ice at 1.5°C. Every carbon cut counts and given that top property developers are extremely exposed, surely it’s time to shed inefficiencies for green building makeovers? This makes sense as the real estate sector accounts for around 40% of all GHG globally (including embodied carbon); in Hong Kong, buildings account for approximately 90% of total electricity consumption and over 60% of carbon emissions.

Hong Kong with its local building regulatory ecosystem is uniquely positioned to adapt to a new normal & become the trailblazer for climate resilience cities, but only if it acts quickly & methodically as highlighted by IXO (a decarbonization engineering and advisory specialist).

Check out their 5-prong recommendations for how Hong Kong can achieve this through city-level frameworks, holistic retrofitting, reforming building regs to reducing embodied carbon in construction.

Indeed, HK based developer, Hang Lung Properties already has targeted strategies to tackle steel emissions that accounted for ~40% of its total embodied carbon emissions in 2023. It’s collaboration with Baosteel has resulted in using nearly 100% low carbon steel in the building structure of its Plaza 66 extension in Shanghai. Such efforts show that it is clearly possible to design, calculate & limit embodied carbon emissions. More importantly, it shows that Hong Kong based developers can lead the way!

So, in this year of the Snake, delay no more and tap your creative side to innovate & adapt – emulate the Snake and overcome obstacles through resourcefulness and intellect, after all, 螣蛇无足而飞 (Téng Shé Wú Zú Ér Fēi) “a soaring snake flies without legs”.

5. Poisonous geopolitics pervades! Global climate setbacks = G77+ China to lead in adaptation & transition…

Geopolitics today can feel like a snake pit with volatile developments. In this multi-polar world, there’s undeniable momentum to look inwards & protect oneself. This fragmentation is overshadowing collective climate action. The US is out of the Paris Agreement again emboldening other countries to pull back on some targets. And then despite the promise of peace talks, we are still warring. All this means emissions will only continue to rise. According to Carbon Brief, Trump’s re-election could add 4GtCO2e to US emissions by 2030! Not exactly great when we need 20GtCO2e of emission cuts for 1.5°C by 2030.

Trump’s re-election could add 4GtCO2e to US emissions by 2030…

…bad news for G77+ China – not responsible for historical emissions, yet will be hit by bigger & sooner accelerated climate threats

This is bad news for the G77+ China – they were not responsible for sizeable historical emissions, yet they will be hit by bigger & sooner accelerated climate threats. The US$1.3 trillion annually they demanded from developed nations to aid mitigation, adaptation, and address loss & damage caused by climate change is far from being met – developed nations only agreed to help channel “at least” US$300bn a year by 2035. This far outcry meant the mood at COP29 was one of bitter resentment, even anger.

It’s a sorry state and it’s not fair, but are we going to wallow or step up? At this point, you have to ask, “if not me, then who?” Surely, we must step up and take action to reduce climate risks by adapting and transitioning? We see the G77+China do just that in the year of the Snake – leveraging a pun of an idiom “蛇/舍我其谁 shé/shě wǒ qí shuí – if not a snake/me, then who?”.

Asia makes up >50% of global emissions + is the most vulnerable to rising seas…

…means much more rethinking of development & weaning ourselves off fossil fuels

Here, in Asia, we must do our part to cut emissions to slow down ice sheet melt after all, we account for over 50% of global emissions AND we are the most vulnerable region to rising seas. This means we’ll have to lean into Trend #2 and do much more rethinking of development and weaning ourselves off fossil fuels – we cannot stay within 1.5°C without transitioning away from them as they account for 68% of global GHG emissions in 2023. Yet, the key pledge to transition away from fossil fuels, which should be taken forward in COP29, was instead delayed to COP30 this year.

We see China, currently the world’s largest emitter taking up the vacuum created by Trump. It’s massive expansion in green energy has given it kudos, plus it’s also pioneering a new style of low-carbon development which the G77 can emulate – already we see Thailand, Mexico and so on embrace Chinese EVs and then there is China’s strong push for new style nuclear.

Ultimately, shedding fossil reliance means we’ll need another form of stable energy for the grid. Nuclear can provide this – currently at ~10% of powergen, it is to grow. According to the IEA, global investments are set to double to U$150bn by 2030; there are currently 63 reactors under construction, 50% of this is in China.

While the Fukushima incident led China to dial back its ambitious nuclear expansion plans of a whopping 500GW by 2050, China did continue to spend on nuclear R&D and a Generation IV Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) was built and completed in 2021 in the Gobi Desert. This 2MW small modular reactor piloted has several advantages over traditional uranium reactors, including safety, reduced waste, better fuel efficiency plus the best news – it does not need water and can be used in arid landlocked areas. Nuclear waste can also be used as a fuel source. If this pilot works, China will likely scale up implementation by 2030.

But shedding fossil reliance means we’ll need another form of stable energy…

…nuclear investments are set to double to US$150bn by 2030; 63 reactors are under construction (50% in China)

Separately, we also saw China tout the Linglong One (ACP100) as the world’s first commercial small modular reactor, that’s nearly ready to provide 1 billion kWh of electricity annually and power over half a million homes. But it’s not just China that’s interested in small modular nuclear, tech giants are also going nuclear given their skyrocketing energy use

Google in October 2024 signed the first corporate agreement to purchase nuclear energy from multiple small modular reactors  and later that month,  Amazon has signed three agreements to support the development of nuclear energy projects – including enabling the construction of several new. Meanwhile, Microsoft signed a 20-year deal to purchase power from the Three Mile Island energy plant, which will open in 2028 after improvements. Nuclear is certainly shedding skin – according to the IEA, we could see an aggressive add of 120GW of SMR by 2050 – this will require US$670bn; the G77 could tap into this.

But then again, do we need so much power for AI? Again, China could be the disruptor – Deepseek, built around computing & energy limitations, was developed on a US$6mn budget vs. US$100mn for OpenAI’s GPT-4. Who knows, this open-source AI could end up slashing AI power usage.

A word of caution – critical raw minerals – we have been covering these for a while and since 2016 & 2017 we’ve said that domestic demand for these to power a “Green China” will be so great that it will not have enough for export. Indeed, there are concerns over this now prompting Trump to suggest a takeover of Greenland to secure rare earths. The tight supply of these will only add to geopolitical tensions.

There are many moving parts – world politics and climate risk landscapes are both changing – faster than we understand sometimes. In times like these, its best to hunker down and tackle the biggest threat – whether you are in Australia, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, South Korea, India, Bangladesh or China – we’re all going to be devastated by fast rising seas. We must therefore all do whatever it takes to slow them down.

But it’s not just govts, the private sector’s role is undeniable…

…in 2023, China’s listed firms earned US$9.9trn – 57% of China’s GDP…

…what China & Asia does matters

But it’s not just governments, Asian tycoons must also lead as they too have a lot to lose as we’ve just shown. Private sector’s role is undeniable – in 2023, China’s listed firms earned CNY72.7trn (US$9.9trn) – this amounts to 57% of China’s GDP. What China & Asia does matters – like we said before, together we account for >50% of global emissions – we must take responsibility; if not us, then who will take the lead to protect our future? We’ve got this … the fact that Indonesia’s President announced that the country plans retire all fossil fuel plants in 15 years is encouraging! But no plan has been released; all eyes on the NDC updates later this year though  nearly 95% of countries miss the UN climate pledge update deadline, which is not comforting. This means more physical risks, which means adapt, adapt, adapt!

Dare to slither into new beginnings…

With the US out of the Paris Agreement, emissions will likely rise. Climate & water risks will only continue to intensify and accelerate. We must face the harsh realities of the ever-evolving climate risk landscape and shed what doesn’t work so we can slither into new beginnings with aligned climate strategies that makes sense. This takes courage and we may fail, but it’s better to try than not try at all, especially given the hundreds of millions of people and trillions of dollars at risk; mostly in Asia.

The best way to do this is to “蛇打七寸” (shé dǎ qī cùn)“ to beat the snake, one must strike seven inches below its head”, meaning tackling the issue at its core. But because there’s a lot going on in climate, in politics, in finance, in business, everywhere, we may fall into snake pits.

We must plan resilience for 3-4°C…

…but also decarbonise to avoid it – Asia holds >50% of global emissions

To avoid this and strike at the core, we must plan resilience for 3-4°C because that’s where current climate policies & current emissions are taking us. But because tomorrow’s risks are already happening now, we must implement adaptation for at least 2°C. At the same time, we must decarbonise like crazy to slow these risks down. We cannot do this by ourselves so ride the transformative power of the Wood Snake and help us to rethink climate & water risks for resilience.

Risks are moving faster than we’ve ever imagined – so we must imagine even more! Rise to the challenge and join us to futureproof Asia.

Further readings

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• Beyond Net Zero in HK: Much to Lose & Everything to Gain – Decarbonisation & engineering specialists McNeill & Karpe, founders of IXO Partners, share 5 prong recommendations for HK to trailblaze from holistic retrofitting, reforming building regs to reducing embodied carbon in construction