We never imagined we’d have to urgently deal with fast rising seas

We never imagined we’d have to urgently deal with fast rising seas

By Debra Tan 24 September, 2024

Seas are rising so unimaginably fast that the urge to just give up is strong. CWR's Tan walks us through 8 things she never imagined & her 3 hopes to slow down fast rising seas

Sea level rise (SLR) was not a water risk we’d have to deal with for some 80-100 years. Or so we thought when we wrote our 5-report series on how to value/assess these risks back in 2020. We were wrong. Seas are now rising faster in this century than it ever has over the last 3,000 years. Yet, the rate of SLR increase is still accelerating. In fact, at the rate we are emitting carbon, we worry that we may see up to 1m of SLR by 2050. But whether this comes true is up to us – we can avoid this with rapid emission cuts in the next 5 years.

We worry that we may see up to 1m of SLR by 2050 … but whether this comes true is up to us

And it’s not just us that is urging rapid deep transition … in late August, the UN released a technical brief called “surging seas” in which Guterres, the UN Secretary General warned: “Rising seas are a crises entirely of humanity’s making. The world must act and answer the SOS before it’s too late.”

Why the SOS terrifies us …

The SOS has been sounded by ice scientists – year after year since 2021 they have released alarming stats highlighted in the State of Cryosphere reports. If you have been following them, you will know that they grow bleaker with every passing year as we have been unable to rein in emissions. And if you haven’t heard of these, the ice SOS call is clearly not loud enough.

The SOS has been sounded by ice scientists – year after year since 2021…

…it comes down to this, future SLR is “higher & sooner” than previously thought

In case you’ve missed these, it comes down to this … emerging research on climate ‘tipping points’ and ice-sheet dynamics is indicating that future sea-level rise (SLR) is “higher and sooner” than previously thought.

Clearly this is bad news for global coastal populations including us here in Hong Kong where it could sink government revenues as well as the real estate sector. Fast rising seas can also threaten the global oil trade & energy security as well as cause coastal blackouts across APAC powerhouses of China, Japan & South Korea as highlighted by our latest report.

8 things we’ve never imagined

Certainly, it is depressing and for the first time in 13 years since founding CWR, the urge to just give up is strong. Yes, it’s that bad … here are 8 things I never imagined when I first started out …

1. That we would breach 1.5°C in 2024 – some 76 years ahead of target date of 2100. I know this may be a temporary blip due to El Nino but every additional 0.1°C of temporary overshoot above 1.5°C (even if temperatures later decrease) increases the risk of triggering ice melt tipping points, which only speed up and increase SLR. But it’s not just SLR, other types of water risks from floods, droughts, cloudbursts to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) have also ramped up. While these are not surprising (as water is largely how we “feel” climate change) it does feel like we are “moving backwards” as impacts outpace adaptation. Our infrastructure, be it water or power, is simply not built for the climate we will face – what is happening today is just a taste of what’s to come. FYI August warmed by 1.51°C which means the rolling 12 months of warming stands at 1.64°C.
2. That our oceans are heating up, soaring to a new paradigm in 2024 – ocean temperatures rose dramatically in 2023 charting alarming new highs throughout the entire year indicating a new paradigm at the start of 2024. For 3 months at the start of this year, temperatures were above 21°C, the high reached in 2023. Did you know that in 2023, our oceans heated up at the rate of detonating 8 atomic bombs per second – that’s equivalent to dropping 252 million bombs for the entire year in the ocean. And it’s getting worse not better – this is 31 million bombs more than 2021. Such soaring ocean temperatures will set off vicious heating cycles, rapid polar ice melt and accelerate rising seas through thermal expansion as well as polar ice sheet melt. So basically … bad, bad and bad. And don’t get me started on the other ocean threats of oxygen loss & acidification.
3. That never-seen-before heatwaves & rain will occur in Greenland & Antarctica – never would I have thought that heatwaves in March 2022 would cause temperatures to soar by a whopping 40°C and 30°C above the norm in Antarctica & Greenland respectively. This size of change is crazy – Hong Kong’s hottest temperature recorded this year was only 35.4°C at the beginning of August. Hotter temperatures mean that rain, not snow is now occurring, and rain is bad news as it accelerates ice sheet melt & SLR. Did you know that 7 billion tonnes of rain fell across Greenland for 3 days in August 2021. This is a mind-blowing amount – this amount of rain over 3 days is enough to provide all of Hong Kong with water for 7 years!! As I am writing this, it’s the dead of winter in Antarctica, but another heatwave is raging. It’s supposed to be -50°C to -60°C down there but it’s not – temperatures range from -10°C to -30°C instead. It’s a topsy turvy world when summer temperatures are occurring in the dead of winter. Certainly, this is extremely bad news for ice melt & SLR.
4. That current Greenland Ice Sheet losses are mind-blowing, tracking the IPCC’s worse-case sea level rise projections – the Greenland Ice Sheet is the second largest body of ice in the world – it’s massive, the size of 7 UK’s. Yet this bastion of ice is not holding. A 2024 study shows that losses are 20% more than previously thought and are now tracking IPCC’s worse-case projections! One of the reasons why SLR is accelerating is because we are losing ice mass at average rates of around 270 million tonnes of ice per year. SLR is speeding up because the 7 worst years of ice loss on record all occurred in the last 10 years. Why should we worry? Because the Greenland Ice Sheet holds up to 7m of SLR.
5. That we can no longer save the West Antarctica Ice Sheet from melting … we can only slow it down – I attended my first cryosphere conference in 2017 in New Zealand. I heard Professor DeConto speak about Antarctica and it terrified me. But never would I have imagined that we will likely lose the entire West Antarctic Ice Shelf by 2100, which means we can no longer halt the melt of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet but slow it down. The CWR team was depressed for a whole week when this study came out. The Thwaites “Doomsday” Glacier is a part of this … and while some studies say its ice shelf could collapse by 2026, others say it may not speed up ice sheet melt. But then, last week at the international cryosphere gathering in Beijing, we heard from global ice sheet scientists that compelling new studies (which will be published soon) point to much higher melt and SLR on our current emissions path. Clearly we need more research to understand ice dynamics but just when we need more money, funding for research on Thwaites is running out. The same is happening to us – just when water risks are rising, funding is being reduced.
6. Worst still, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, long thought to be stable, is now destabilizing – many parts of this ice sheet are now behaving like the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. While the West Antarctic Ice Sheet holds up to 4m of SLR, the giant East Antarctic Ice Sheet holds 52-54m of sea level rise of which 4-15m will melt if we continue on the current emissions path. We should be very, very, very worried … we already know that Antarctica is warming faster than the IPCC AR6 projections, so ice losses & sea level rise projections are underestimated. Indeed, Antarctica’s contribution to SLR has also been increasing in the recent decade and certainly, rapid ocean warming does not help as a part of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is underwater. An August 2024 study that accounts for earth uplift also indicates higher SLR contributions from Antarctica under a high emissions scenario.
7. That sea ice losses last year in the dead of winter in the Antarctica was almost the size of India – sea ice which protects polar ice sheets from increasingly warmer oceans have now shrunk to new record lows. During the winter of July 2023, Antarctica saw unprecedented sea ice losses of 2.77 million km² – this is almost equivalent to the entire land area of India. Sea ice losses also greatly diminish albedo, the ability to reflect the sunrays and cool the planet. Evidently, losing this large reflective surface, the size of India, means that ocean & land temperatures will only rise further. Sea ice losses are also dire in the Arctic – this plus hotter oceans have led to a further weakening in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in recent years.
8. AMOC is weakening; it’s collapse will have devastating effects on the Earth’s climate systems. Shockingly, updated climate models now indicate our current emissions path might lead to a collapse of the AMOC, potentially as early as 2025 – I never imagined this could happen so soon. Again, when I started CWR this was something I thought would not happen until way after 2100 when I would be long gone. As it is, this will change climate as we know it when most of us will still be alive!!

We have a lot less time than you think – so adapt now & decarb fast

If this is the first time you are hearing this, it’s time to get up to speed. There is time but not much left to act to slow down global heating & SLR. West Antarctica & Greenland will both cross irreversible melting thresholds if we exceed 1.8°C, even temporarily. Given that we are at 1.64°C of warming as of August 2024, we are indeed dangerously close to the threshold – once crossed, irreversible SLR of up to 12m will be unleashed.

The last time the Earth was this hot, seas were 6-9m higher than today. Our current emissions path means we will more likely than not see 2-3m of this by 2100…

…so, a just-in-case plan + fast tracking emission cuts are musts – 900mn people & $$$ trillions in assets depend on these

According to the UN, even if we somehow miraculously stopped emitting today, we have already locked-in up to 1.1m of SLR today based on historical emissions to 2016. But, 2016 is 8 years ago and today, we have overshot 1.5°C in January 2024 – the last time the Earth was 1.5°C warmer, seas were 6–9m higher than today. Our current emissions path however, means we could well see 2-3m of SLR by 2100 if emissions continue to rise.

So, when it comes to SLR, it’s not a matter of if but when. If this was the case, then surely having a just-in-case plan for 2-3m of SLR by 2100 is wise, as is doing whatever it takes to fast track emission cuts. 900mn people who live by the sea and trillions of dollars of assets and economic activity depend on these actions. While many countries still lag on drawing up a transformative just-in-case adaptation plan for fast rising seas, we see some positive action on the decarbonisation front.

Silver lining at last! 3 rapid decarb opportunities …

As you can see it is all rather dark, but there is a silver lining to the pervading gloom. Here, I want to highlight 3 rapid decarb possibilities which keep our hopes up – they all from China …

1. China emissions to fall in 2024? China’s emissions exploded as it lifted over 1bn people out of poverty to be the world’s largest emitter. It’s now the largest global emitter and we can’t limit warming without China, so thankfully, Carbon Brief notes that its emissions could see structural decline from 2024. This is due to falling carbon emissions from steel & cement sectors plus there is a massive surge in clean energy…
2. China’s clean energy add in 2023 alone can power the whole of France. In 2023, the world spent US$1.77trn on clean energy – almost 40% of this or US$676bn was spent by China, followed by the EU27 (US$361bn) and the USA (US$303bn). China’s efforts will bear fruit in 2024 – the newly installed capacity of solar, wind, hydro & nuclear in 2023 will generate 423TWh per year according to CREA. This amount of electricity is massive – it is equal to the total electricity consumption of France. Imagine if the rest of the G20 countries can transition at this pace! We may well stay below 2°C of warming!
3. China EVs & hybrids soared to account for 50% of sales in July 2024. This was 24% in Q42023. The jump is not surprising as EVs are not only competitively priced but there is a wide range of them to chose from. Whereas China’s EVs are welcomed in Mexico and Thailand, others like the US, EU27 and Canada (all large emitters which are responsible for 29% of global GHG) have imposed punitive tariffs of up to 100%. You would have thought they would embrace cheap cars to fast track global transition as they are falling short of their climate pledges; especially since these 4 have contributed 33% to global warming from 1850 to 2021 compared to China’s 12%.

So, the real question is not can we slow down rising seas, but does the G7 really want to?

Because if the G7 really wanted to, it would have either embraced cheap Chinese solar and EVs or built these industries from scratch like China did. China only started talking about these “strategic emerging industries” (SEIs) in 2011. By that time, the world, led by the G7 was already 17 years into the climate change discussion. It was COP17; I remember because 2011 was also when we launched CWR and started talking about these new SEIs. At that time, Germany led in solar and Japan in EVs – back then, China’s plans were but pipe dreams.

There is no negotiating with the melting point of ice…

…we are literally rearranging deck chairs as the Titanic goes down – it’s time to set aside our differences!

Rising seas will doom us all. Those that have contributed the least to climate change will suffer the most. Just when we need the world to come together, it is becoming more fragmented. Right now, there is a higher likelihood of widespread war than meeting the 1.5°C target. As there is no negotiating with the melting point of ice, we are literally rearranging deck chairs as the Titanic goes down. It’s time to set aside our differences and start talking, for only then can we slow down rising seas.

Further readings

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• Coastal Power Blackout – Power assets vulnerable to rising seas demand rethink of energy resilience & transition strategies across North Asia — Sea level rise stress tests showed low national exposure but material exposure for clean energy portfolios & significant threats at province/prefecture levels. What exactly does this mean for China, Japan & South Korea and where are the opportunities, find out in CWR’s new report
• CDP The State of Play 2023: Climate Transition Plan Disclosure — Companies disclosing climate transition plans jumped 44% last year but significant disparities exist in the ‘credibility’ & ambition of these plans says Wan, Head Of Capital Markets APAC at CDP. He shares more key findings from their recent report