Coastal Power Blackout – Power assets vulnerable to rising seas demand rethink of energy resilience & transition strategies across North Asia
By CWR 24 September, 2024
Sea level rise stress tests showed low national exposure but material exposure for clean energy portfolios & significant threats at province/prefecture levels. What exactly does this mean for China, Japan & South Korea and where are the opportunities, find out in CWR's new report
Hong Kong, 10th September 2024 – CWR releases a new report, “Coastal Blackout? Power assets vulnerable to rising seas demand rethink of energy resilience & transition strategies across North Asia”. The report which analysed 849GW of power assets located in coastal regions in China, Japan and South Korea reveals that fast rising seas could swamp coastal power plants of these economic powerhouses sooner than we think, causing coastal blackouts.
SLR stress tests showed low national exposure but significant threats at province/prefecture levels…
…such high levels of SLR exposure demand a rethink of energy resilience & transition strategies
According to the report, power assets almost equivalent to the national installed capacity of Indonesia are vulnerable to 1m of sea level rise (SLR) whereas at 3m, power assets affected will be greater than the combined national installed capacity of Vietnam and the Philippines. CWR’s SLR stress tests also find risks at province/prefecture levels to be material. Even at just 1m of SLR, the report notes that 18% of Guangdong and 30% of Tianjin’s power assets are vulnerable while Ibaraki prefecture, the birthplace of Hitachi Ltd, will see 20% of its power assets impacted. As for South Korea, its most populous province Gyeonggi-do (which surrounds Seoul) will see 10% of its power assets hit at 1m, whereas Busan, its second largest city, will see up to 40% of its power assets underwater at 3m of SLR.
“We were surprised by the stress test results. While we found low national exposure, deep dives into 63 provinces and prefectures plus different power types from coal & nuclear to solar showed a double whammy hit: 1) clear concentrated risks at province and prefecture levels; and 2) material exposure for clean energy portfolios across all three countries” said Dr CT Low, CWR’s Geospatial Risk Lead and lead author of the report. “Evidently, such high levels of SLR exposure demand a rethink of energy resilience and transition strategies for China, Japan and South Korea” he added.
1m SLR also affects 18% Japan’s & 24% South Korea’s solar assets; 3m affects 24% & 41%…
…could stymie their already laggard transition efforts
Sizeable shares of national solar assets will be hit – 18% for Japan and 24% for South Korea will be impacted at just 1m of SLR, warned the report. At 3m of SLR, their exposure goes up to 24% and 41% respectively. As for nuclear assets, the report said that 24% of China’s and 14% of South Korea’s nuclear fleets are vulnerable to 3m of SLR. “Such levels of exposure in clean energy portfolios could stymie transition efforts. For Japan and South Korea, this could further set back their already laggard transition actions. There are also clear EV adoption implications for all three countries” warned Debra Tan, Head of CWR and co-author of this report.
Three metres of SLR may seem far-fetched but Tan notes otherwise: “the unimaginable ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica today plus soaring global heating from current emissions are putting us on track for multi-metre SLR by 2100. As abrupt jumps in SLR are likely, we may well see up to 1m of SLR as early as 2050. We must pay attention to what’s really happening in our polar regions.”
Unimaginable ice melt + soaring global heating = on track for multi-metre SLR…
…as abrupt jumps are likely, may well see up to 1m as early as 2050
No doubt the world is heating up. According to the World Meteorological Organization, annual warming breached 1.5°C in January this year and has continued to rise to 1.64°C as of July 2024. This brings us ever closer to the critical threshold of 1.8°C. The State of the Cryosphere 2023 Report notes that even if we breach this threshold temporarily, the irreversible melt of West Antarctica & Greenland will be triggered. If we get to 2°C of warming, ice scientists warn that a shocking 12-20m of SLR will be locked-in. When we will see these levels depends on our ability to cut emissions.
“Rapid and deep emissions cuts is the only way to slow down fast rising seas but our current carbon pledges are not good enough. Every effort needs to be made to fast track transition and our report reveals multiple opportunities – for example, there are 44GW of coal-fired power plants that are vulnerable to 1m of SLR – we can start by retiring these now, after all they may be flooded within 30 years” said Dr Low. The early retirement of such fossil fuel plants will not only help slow down rising seas but also ensure energy security said the report.
44GW of coal-fired power vulnerable to 1m SLR = significant decarbonisation opportunity through early retirement
The decarbonisation opportunity through early retirement is significant – 44GW is greater than the combined national installed capacity of Malaysia, Cambodia and Brunei according to CWR. Here, the report says that China has a key role to play as it has the lion’s share of these vulnerable coal-fired power plants. The report, a part of CWR’s new “Accelerated Threat Series”, also urges other governments, corporates, institutional investors and lenders to take action. CWR’s “5 to-do’s to build power resilience to rising seas” shows the way, starting with in-depth assessments of SLR hotspots to building grid flexibility.
The analysis for the report was not without challenges and limitations – for example neither storm surges nor electricity distribution across various grid systems were factored in but as Dr Low insisted “sooner & higher rising seas means we can no longer ignore these risks. Storm surges from typhoons today are already knocking out power and fast rising seas will only magnify these acute risks. No industry or city can run without power so take action to waterproof your assets or portfolios now, especially in the hotspots identified in the report.”
“The impetus is clear, beyond energy security, there is a lot at stake: coastal populations, cities, trade & economies…
…only 6 years to deliver deep emission cuts. Don’t wait.”
There is simply too much at stake to do nothing. And while this report only focused on China, Japan and South Korea, CWR says that this does not mean that other regions are not impacted – they are. As Tan said “The impetus is clear, beyond energy security, there is a lot at stake: coastal populations, cities, trade and economies. We cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice. Once triggered, we cannot “undo” rising seas, we can only slow it down. There is time to do this, but not much left – 6 years to deliver deep emission cuts. Don’t wait.”
Media
For more information, please contact: Dr. CT Low
Email: ctl@cwrrr.org
Report Link:
Quick access – Infographics/charts
- Fossil fuel early retirement opportunities – similar to some of ASEAN’s power capacity
- Deep dive by power types – At-a-glance exposure to 1m, 2m & 3m of SLR by power type for 3 countries
- Clean energy portfolio at risk – national shares of nuclear, solar & wind vulnerable to 1-3m of SLR for China, Japan & South Korea
- Prefecture/province level SLR exposure for Japan & South Korea
- China Spotlight: at-a-glance SLR exposure for 11 coastal provinces/municipalities
- Share of national power capacity vulnerable to 1m, 2m & 3m of SLR for China. Japan & South Korea
- Facing reality – see how fast warming is accelerating
Quick access – Key takeaways
- Executive Summary
- 5 to-do’s to build power resilience to rising seas
Further readings
- Crude Awakening! Fast rising seas threaten global oil trade & energy security — Almost 2/3rds of global oil produced is shipped by sea but 12 of the Top 15 Tanker Terminals are impacted at just 1m of rising seas. CWR’s new report reveals why oil no longer provides energy security but instead threatens it
- No River, No Power – are we energy secure when rivers run dry? – CWR’s new report revealed 16 Asian countries’ power generation assets with installed capacity greater than the G7 ex-US face sizable trifecta exposure from escalating climate risks and rivers running dry. There are clear national energy security implications unpack this reliance on 10 climate-sensitive rivers now!
- War & Climate Change: Suez & Panama Canals’ Trade At Risk — All eyes on the US & UK as they swoop in to put an end to the Ansar Allah attacks on ships in the Red Sea. But where are the efforts to battle climate change over at the Panama Canal where drought is also disrupting trade? Is war really the best strategy? CWR’s Lam shares 3 thoughts
More on Latest
- Power Out Risks Rising! 5 Ways Extreme Weather Causes Blackouts — Typhoon Yagi was a wakeup call – even ‘typhoon-resistant’ wind turbines can’t withstand our accelerating climate. And if they’re vulnerable, how about the rest of our unadapted power systems? CWR’s Lam breaks down 5 ways power is at risk
- We never imagined we’d have to urgently deal with fast rising seas — Seas are rising so unimaginably fast that the urge to just give up is strong. CWR’s Tan walks us through 8 things she never imagined & her 3 hopes to slow down fast rising seas
- CDP The State of Play 2023: Climate Transition Plan Disclosure — Companies disclosing climate transition plans jumped 44% last year but significant disparities exist in the ‘credibility’ & ambition of these plans says Wan, Head Of Capital Markets APAC at CDP. He shares more key findings from their recent report
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