Save Our Earth! “Stop the Melt” One Year On

Save Our Earth! “Stop the Melt” One Year On

By Jamie Chan, Debra Tan 22 April, 2026

New research in the past year finds almost all sea level rise modelling has been underestimated. CWR sums up key cryosphere updates for our Chinese ice factsheet launch

Happy Earth Day! In the spirit of glacier preservation, we’ve launched a Chinese version of the “13-Factsheet Guide to Stop the Melt” to save our cryosphere and slow down rapid ice loss & sea level rise plus preserve freshwater ice banks.

A lot has happened since the English version was released last year on the first ever World Glacier Day. Back then, the English factsheets carried the slogan “2°C is too hot for ice”, now the Chinese factsheets say “1.5°C is too hot for ice”. This is because ice is more sensitive to warming than previously thought; leading ice scientists now say the safe limit for ice is closer to 1°C.

The WMO’s latest State of the Climate 2025 report delivers a dire message: the Earth’s energy imbalance is highest in sixty five-year record. “The State of the Global Climate is in a state of emergency. Planet Earth is being pushed beyond its limits. Every key climate indicator is flashing red”, said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

Given this heightened urgency, we’ve produced a Chinese version with the Chinese National Committee for International Association of Cryospheric Sciences (CNC-IACS), the Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IGSNRR-CAS), the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI), and the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). We hope these factsheets will activate cryosphere interest & action in China.

There’s much at stake and strong policy directives can give us hope for adaptive change. But first, we have to recognise that things have gotten a whole lot worse for the ice kingdom and sea level rise…

Exceeding safe limits = ice melt has sped up

The fact that the 20-year average warming has already surpassed 1°C in 2021 is deeply troubling. But remember, ice doesn’t respond to averages but warming today, and warming for the month of March 2026 is at 1.48°C. It should come as no surprise that ice losses are speeding up everywhere. Just in the past year we’ve seen…

• Tragic ice-related disasters: from a sudden glacier collapse in Blatten burying an entire village in the Swiss Alps to a devastating GLOF causing US$36mn in losses in China and Nepal.
• Himalayan Water Towers’ resources affected: a new 2025 study shows snowfall decline in recent years have undermined Central Asian glacier meltwater resources. With scientists now finding correlation between polar sea ice loss & decreased winter snowfall in the Himalayas, snowfall losses are likely to persist. On top of this our “ice reserves” have also shrunk with the world’s glaciers losing a total mass of 408Gt in 2025 – thus releasing enough water to fill ~163mn Olympic swimming pools!
• Accelerated sea level rise from faster melt from Greenland & Antarctica: record-breaking heatwave caused Greenland ice to melt 17x faster last May. Now, even under low emissions, Greenland’s peripheral glaciers are expected to lose almost one-fifth of its volume by 2100. Over in Antarctica, new projections find that high emissions may see 10% more surface melt and the collapse of Larsen C & Wilkins ice shelves by 2100.
• Accelerated permafrost thaw: is eating up our carbon budget and is directly increasing wildfire risks – an extra 7mn hectares will be burned under high emissions. More emissions from both of these will eat into remaining carbon budgets from 2025 onwards by 25% – this means we need much more action to meet the Paris Target of 1.5°C.

Oops! Inaccurate modelling of sea level rise = it could be over 1m higher!

On top of accelerating melt driving faster SLR, SLR levels have been underestimated due to inaccurate modelling. SLR impacts are determined by coastal sea-level height and land elevation but a new Nature paper has just shown that more than 99% of evaluated impact assessments handled SLR and land elevation data inadequately.

This was because rather than using actual sea-level measurements, most coastal hazard assessments use assumed coastal sea levels based on geoid models that estimate global sea levels based on the Earth’s gravity & rotation. Based on actual measured coastal sea levels, global ocean levels are an average of 30cm higher than previously believed. But in some areas of the Global South, including Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific, they may be 0.9-1.1m higher than previously estimated!

SLR modelling error means that 1m will impact up to 37% more land & 68% more people

This is a big deal … according to the study, if relative SLR was 1m, 31–37% more land and 48–68% more people will be impacted. This error is especially pronounced for the Global South due to insufficient data. In contrast, the geoid model performs relatively well for the Global North because the gravity data set is more complete.

This “modelling error” plus the fact that ice is melting much faster than expected is a double whammy hit – SLR will be even higher and arrive even sooner across Asia.

Given the large swathes of coastal cities and populations at stake, we must prioritise the re-evaluation of existing coastal impact assessments with the correct elevation data as well as adapt to the right levels of future SLR that accounts for rapid ice melt.

China’s long coastlines are not immune …

China has been monitoring actual SLR along its coast and has noted that it is accelerating. Seas have risen 0.18m from 1900 to 2020 but according to China’s Ministry of Natural Resources, 0.14m of this was from 1980. This means most of SLR in China has happened within the last three decades. And because we are way above the 1°C safety limit for ice, acceleration of melt and SLR will continue.

China’s 14FYP & 15FYP prioritise coastal defence

The good news is China has been strengthening coastal defence. In the 14FYP for Water Security, China recognised the need to prioritise the strengthening of its coastal cities’ defence against floods & storm surges as they were “economically developed, densely populated, with high social wealth”, especially since SLR was accelerating. And in the latest 15FYP, China did urge action to “prevent and respond to seawater intrusion” signaling an integrated approach to the threat.

Living with sea level rise is possible – the Netherlands is testament to that fact – but planning needs to start now. China’s National Adaptation Plans for all coastal provinces do include adaptation for coastal threats but more will need to be done to ensure coastal assessments and adaptation plans have factored in the rapid ice melt we are now seeing.

Here, it’s worth noting that Singapore is planning to build a continuous line of defence around its 300km coastline While we know new critical infrastructure like Changi Airport Terminal 5 will be at least 5m above current sea levels, it is not clear how high the defence will be for other areas – and if it’s high enough to fend off higher and sooner SLR driven by rapid ice melt. Regardless, its new coastal protection bill is a first step forward – check it out.

Rethink energy to slow down SLR

1m of SLR could happen in 25-45 years’ time if current emissions continue. While there is time, we must start rethinking cities, food & energy security now. Continuing to burn fossil fuels would certainly speed up SLR.

The current energy crisis provides an opportunity for an energy reset…

The current energy crisis provides an opportunity for an energy reset. Even if Asia rides out current disruptions and market volatility due to the US-Israel-Iran war, its energy infrastructure is still vulnerable to fast rising seas – 1m of sea level rise (now possible in as little as 25 years) will submerge many of the continents’ import/export oil ports – see Japan & South Korea exposure and which Top 30 oil ports will be hit by fast rising seas.

Coastal electricity generation assets are also at risk. Our Coastal Blackout report finds that 65GW of national power assets could be impacted by 1m of SLR before 2070 across China, Japan & South Korea – this is equivalent to the total installed capacity of Indonesia. Renewable assets aren’t safe either – see how solar and nuclear assets will be impacted too.

Given what’s at stake, use this time wisely to rethink energy & economic security and commit to faster transition away from oil & gas.

…already China’s EV exports jumped 140% in March

We have high hopes especially for China – at least the nation still committed to decarbonising. And the energy crisis is renewing interest in EVs – in March alone China’s EV exports jumped 140%.

According to IRENA, the world saw a 15.5% growth in renewable capacity with 692GW added in 2025; almost two-thirds or 452GW of this came from China. Like we said in our “5 Trends of the Fire Horse” China will remain committed to decarb with “firm resolve and maximum effort”. Plus, China’s aware that rising emissions = rising water risks, so they’re going all-out to ensure there’s water & to protect against water shocks in the next 5 years – see our 15FYP Water Outlook.

The growing body of science pointing to higher & sooner SLR cannot be ignored. We are not being alarmist; the facts are alarming. The fact that we’ve published this with China’s national cryosphere institutes means that the country is aware of the alarming state of our cryosphere. As China always acts on science, we hope China will adapt accordingly to rapid ice melt and SLR.

That said, more research on urban infrastructure resilience and coastal engineering is also crucial and here, we’re pleased to see a newly launched State Key Lab of Climate Resilience for Coastal Cities to address such. This lab is based in HK, giving the SAR an opportunity to lead the way in R&D to protect the low-lying Greater Bay Area.

There’s lots to be done. But solving the problem starts with knowing the problem. So get on top of these with our Chinese “Stop the Melt” factsheets! For English click here. Help us get the word out – we need all hands on deck.

Further readings

• Can Arctic Sea Ice Impact Hong Kong’s Weather? Dr. Cen Wang Explains — From polar vortex surges to sea level rise, atmospheric scientist Dr. Wang’s research explores the deep connections between the Arctic & Asia’s coastal cities
• Dr. Chen Zhao on Antarctica’s Subglacial Melt – A Sea Level Rise Driver We’ve Missed — Glaciologist Dr. Zhao on the hidden threat beneath Antarctica that could drastically accelerate sea level rise
• CWR Talks to Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf on the Decades Away Breakdown of the Atlantic Current — What is AMOC and why would its collapse catastrophically disrupt the global climate? Hear from the leading expert Prof. Rahmstorf about this looming climate threat you probably haven’t heard of

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• Singapore’s New Coastal Protection Bill – 3 Key Updates — How will Singapore build 300km of watertight coastal infrastructure around its border? CWR’s Chan breaks down its new sea level rise defence mandate into 3 private sector implications
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• AI For Energy Savings: A Conversation with Univers’ Chun Yin Mak — With the equivalent of one-fifth of the world’s renewable energy under its belt, Univers’ Mak explains how its AI platform works