EVs Everywhere – 5 (Not So) Impossible Wishes

By Ziyang Cai 19 December, 2025

Six years ago, CWR's Cai could not imagine the EV revolution taking place today, so perhaps her far-fetched wishes, from tripling China's EV fleet to making money from her EV, may come true in the next five years

Today, China is almost at its EV tipping point where more EVs are sold than ICEs. Following the Shenzhen model could help China triple its EV fleet to 110mn by 2030
With more charging stations and cheaper batteries, it's time to wish for EVs' long-distance road trips as well as electric trucks. But note that the EV supply chain remains dirty
When Vehicle-to-Grid tech matures, EV owners will be able to earn money from charging their car, incentivising greater EV adoption while helping stabilise the grid

Christmas bells are ringing … if you are buying (or renting) a car this holiday, choosing an EV can be an impactful way to do more good. According to the IEA, a battery EV with a 300km range is estimated to produce 54% less greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) over its lifetime than a conventional internal-combustion engine “medium car.”

In China, EVs have exploded from an idea in a 12FYP policy directive issued in 2011 to global domination today. In 2024, based on IEA stats, China accounts for 59% of the global EV stock share. The speed of this uptake is beyond belief – even 6 years ago, my family was hesitant about buying an EV, because we couldn’t imagine the future of EVs coming so fast.

Back then, my mother wanted to buy a new car for commuting. I had just entered university and tried very hard to persuade her to buy an EV, but she still ended up buying a conventional petrol car. “There are no charging stations at my company’s parking lot. We should wait for the tech to be mature,” my mother said, “maybe another day.” However, mere months after her purchase, her company’s parking lot was equipped with chargers.

By the time I graduated, range anxiety, charging inconvenience and long charging times were no longer worries. This makes me wonder … what other seemingly impossible things can be made possible in a few years? A tripling of China’s EV fleet? A clean supply chain? Vehicle-to-Grid a new norm? Here are my 5 wishes on this front … they may not be impossible after all …

1. Less ICE, more EVs – follow Shenzhen & triple China’s national EV fleet by 2030

If you’ve been to Shenzhen, you’ll notice that every Uber (Didi, to be precise) that picks you up is electric. A Didi driver once told me that while an internal combustion engine (ICE) car costs about RMB0.60/km, an EV runs for just RMB0.10/km. This means driving 200km a day saves RMB3,000 per month. It’s no wonder ICE vehicles have virtually vanished from Didi fleets in major cities.

Shenzhen achieved 100% electric buses & taxis in 2017 & 2020 respectively

In short, the decision to own an EV is now market-driven, not policy-driven – according to the Shenzhen government, almost 8 in 10 cars sold in Shenzhen is an EV. The city takes it further – you won’t see a single ICE bus or taxi, because Shenzhen has achieved 100% electric public buses in 2017 (a world first) and 100% electric taxis in 2020.

In Shenzhen, it feels like EVs have already dominated the vehicle market. So, when I read China’s new NDC aiming for “new energy vehicles to become the mainstream among newly sold cars,” I was surprised. Hadn’t we already reached that point?

In 2025, China’s EV ownership  = 33x 2017, but EVs only = 10% of total vehicles on the road

The reality is, not yet nationally. While China’s EV ownership has skyrocketed 33x since 2015 to over 37 million vehicles, EVs only make up 10% of all vehicles on the road as of June 2025 (see chart below). But my perception wasn’t wrong, Shenzhen’s EV ownership share of total vehicles is 29% – this is almost triple the national share. It also has the highest EV penetration rate among Chinese cities – 80% of new vehicle sales are EVs versus 42% nationally for 2024.

Decisive state support, including RMB1.66 trillion in subsidies from 2016 to 2020 has triggered a whole-industry revolution. And although direct purchase subsidies ended in 2022, favorable policies like tax exemptions continue. Now, when my friends discuss buying a car, they only consider EVs – they’re cheaper, greener, and offer more compelling models than ever.

Today, China is almost at its EV tipping point, where more cars sold are EVs than ICEs. Next Christmas, the adoption rates could be well over 50% – FYI the rate was only 30% in 2023. So, while wishing to triple China’s national EV fleet which stands at 37mn today to 110mn by 2030 may sound incredulous, it may well turn out to be conservative!

2. Take a 2,412 km guilt-free green road trip on the “318” from Chengdu to Lhasa in an EV

The G318 Highway is one of China’s most legendary scenic routes, stretching over 2,400km from Chengdu, Sichuan to Lhasa, Tibet. In China, there’s a well-known saying: “318 此生必駕” or “318 is a must drive in your lifetime”.

Driving 2,400km in an EV is now possible as there are more charging stations…

A few years ago, attempting the 318 in an EV seemed crazy because it winds past many rural areas with few charging facilities. But things have changed. Last year, my friend completed the route in an EV and I am so envious! “The whole trip was smooth. The many fast-charging stations inside the highway’s service area made it easy – buy some food, take a rest and you are ready to go again with a fully charged EV”, he said. Accommodation with charging stations was also available. However, finding charging stations now feels like finding Wi-Fi a decade ago, but soon they too will be everywhere.

The mental block of EVs not being suited for long-distance travel is surely being dismantled. By July 2025, China had built 16.7 million charging piles, a tenfold increase from 2020. A new national action plan aims to double charging capacity again by 2027, ready to support over 80 million EVs (not too far off my wish of around 110 million EVs by 2030).

…& a 3x improvement in battery performance over the past decade

There have also been huge improvements in battery performance. Over the past decade, the energy density of power batteries has increased threefold, while costs have decreased by more than 80%. As battery energy density increases, driving range improves. In 2024, many automakers launched models with a range of 1,000km, making it possible to complete the 318 with 2-3 charges.

Plus, driving an EV on the 318 is much greener than anywhere else – Tibet has the “cleanest” grid in China, with 99% of the electricity generated by renewables while they provide 76% of total power gen in Sichuan.

So, now you can go on a guilt-free green road trip … and best of all, you can form a deeper connection with the plateaus, valleys, snow mountains and forests in beautiful silence, without any engine noise. I can’t wait … 318 in an EV beckons!

3. Complete silence on China’s highways when it shifts to electric trucks!

When dreaming of driving in silence on the 318, I almost forget that 74% of goods in China are transported by truck. It will be difficult to ignore the huge trucks that roar past me, so it seems fitting that I should also wish for fully electrified trucks!

100% electric truck now appears possible & they are expected to achieve in 3 yrs what EVs took 15 yrs to achieve

Electric trucks were considered impossible to commercialize for various reasons. But now, with the technology development driven by small EVs, a 100% electric future for trucks now appears within reach. According to WRI, the total cost of ownership of electric trucks is projected to be the same as diesel trucks by 2027 in urban & port transportation scenarios.

Encouragingly, in May this year, Robin Zeng, the founder of CATL projected that by 2028, the electrification rate of newly sold trucks in China will reach 50%. This means that what took EVs 15 years to achieve will be done in just 3yrs for “ETs”! Fingers crossed this comes true.

4. A green EV supply chain – cleaning up the dark side of nickel, cobalt & lithium mining

If my first wish comes true, there will be around 110mn EVs running on the road by 2030; plus, lots of electric trucks too. Imagine how many batteries will be needed!

Sadly, the battery supply chain can be highly polluting. Batteries need a large amount of critical minerals, like nickel, lithium and cobalt depending on the type; and the mining of these can be highly polluting.

Indonesia produces 70% of the global nickel supply & faces severe pollution from mining…

Indeed, huge environmental damage and water pollution has been sustained in Indonesia from nickel mining. Currently, Reuters says that Indonesia is the world’s largest supplier of the ore with 70% share of global nickel supply but Chinese firms control about 75% of Indonesia’s nickel refining capacity. So, Chinese EV brands need to step up and clean up their supply chain.

The clean-up may be slow, but momentum is building. Although postponed, the EU battery regulation if enacted will require enterprises to conduct supply chain due diligence for cobalt, lithium, nickel, and graphite by 2027.

… but with new battery tech, we can rely less on these polluting metals

Regardless, battery tech is fast-evolving away from nickel and a cleaner sodium-ion battery (SIB) is emerging. According to IRENA, SIBs would account for approximately 10% of total EV battery demand by 2030 based on current assumptions.

I am waiting for the day to buy my own EV. Hopefully, when that day comes, the EV will come with a green supply chain certificate!

5. Making money with my EV – Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Virtual Power Plant (VPP)

Imagine one day your EV sitting in the garage can earn money for you. With Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology, this is already possible! How does V2G work? Imagine the EVs as a power bank – it not only draws energy from the grid but sends it back.

In Shenzhen’s V2G test, EV owners earned RMB 3.60 / kWh by sending electricity back to the grid

China is already piloting large-scale V2G in 9 cities. Not surprisingly, Shenzhen is at the forefront, launching China’s largest V2G (vehicle-to-grid) test on 28 March 2025, with over 17,000 vehicles participating across more than 760 charging stations and 18,000 charging piles. 88 MWh of electricity was generated and EV owners made a profit of RMB3.60 per kWh for sending electricity back to the grid. This is the beginning – the energy storage potential of EVs in Shenzhen today exceeds 3,000GW – this is almost equivalent to the capacity of five medium-sized coal power plants.

Growing EV capacity could one day act like a  virtual power plant to help to stabilize the grid

With the maturity of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) applications, the ever-growing sizeable “EV capacity” will play an important role in supporting the grid’s stability. Once integrated and managed by a centralized smart platform, EVs can act like a Virtual Power Plant (VPP). Like traditional coal power plants, VPPs can respond to peak demand and stand by in the off-peak by using pricing to entice EV users to charge at off-peak times and sell electricity back to the grid at peak hours.

In the near future, the running of an EV can be transformed into potential earnings every day. If the Shenzhen pilot is anything to go by, I could net RMB3.60 per kWh with my EV, making it an even more attractive investment. I am already dreaming of buying my own EV and using this method to cover my electricity bill.

These are just my wishes for EVs for China. However, we should note that private EVs are not affordable for everyone, and building EVs are resource-intensive, not forgetting the road and charging infrastructure needed to support them. So the greenest & most guilt-free way of travel is still green public transport – even without the green part high-speed trains are twice as fast plus use 29% less energy compared to planes – see here for more.

Now imagine if we have both green public transport and EVs and this was applied across the Global South …

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Author: Ziyang Cai
Ziyang focuses on China’s climate policies and contributes to CWR’s monthly newsletter management and publication. She is passionate about building resilience in the water-energy-climate nexus. Ziyang holds a Master’s degree in public policy from the Hong Kong University of Science & Technology.
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