Four Years On: Where is China on its Dual Carbon Goals?

By Hongqiao Liu 25 November, 2024

China’s role in global climate action is pivotal so where is it on its 'dual carbon' targets? Liu, award winning journalist & former CWR team member, provides an update & highlights the opportunity for China to again rise to the global climate challenge

Four years have passed since China announced its ambitious “dual carbon” goals: peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. While Western analysts predict China may reach peak emissions this year or next, the Chinese government has maintained its official 2030 timeline, offering little response to these forecasts.

If the coal-dependent economic “supertanker” can change course, it could unlock transformative progress…

…China’s RE achievements show a glimpse of this potential – delivered 6 years early on pledge to install 1,200GW of wind & solar

As the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases and the second-largest historical contributor, China’s role in global climate action is pivotal. While its vast population and landmass are contributing factors, the root cause lies in decades of heavy reliance on fossil fuels – especially coal – to fuel its rapid economic growth in the past few decades. 

Transitioning from this entrenched dependency is a monumental challenge. Yet, if China’s coal-dependent economic “supertanker” can change course, it could unlock transformative progress in the global fight against climate change.

China’s renewable energy achievements provide a glimpse of this potential. The country pledged to install 1,200GW of wind and solar capacity before 2030, a target it has already surpassed six years early. Its progress in new energy vehicles (NEVs) is also remarkable: between 2020 and 2023, China’s electric car fleet grew nearly fivefold, and over half of the world’s NEVs are now on Chinese roads. Despite rising trade barriers, both domestic and export NEV markets continue to break records.

However, to replicate this momentum in emerging clean energy solutions like hydrogen and energy storage, China has much “housekeeping” to do. Top of the list is putting an end to the country’s persistent ambiguous stance on phasing out coal. The recently enacted Energy Law, formalised in November, codifies the controversial “clean coal” policy, supporting the “rational development” and “clean, efficient utilisation” of fossil fuels. While no one would argue the necessity of a “safe, reliable, and orderly” transition, continued investment in coal retrofits is neither cost-effective nor low-carbon. 

However, to replicate this momentum in emerging clean energy solutions like hydrogen & energy storage, it has much “housekeeping” to do

As climate change transforms every aspect of life, the response must be comprehensive and strategic. Since the 2023 launch of the “1+N” climate policy framework, central ministries have expanded the national carbon market, relaunched the CCER program, and introduced climate finance pilots. While all these policy tools and initiatives are critical for steering China’s economy toward decarbonization, some can deliver faster and more significant impacts than others. For instance, accurately determining the emissions peak and promptly implementing a dual-control system on carbon emissions, combining absolute caps with intensity targets, would provide a clear and strong signal to regulators and market actors. 

Amid economic headwinds and geopolitical turbulence, policymakers face increasingly difficult trade-offs. Nonetheless, restoring climate action as a governance priority is imperative, and not just in rhetoric but through tangible actions. Sadly, the state planner’s recent endorsement of falsely labeled “low-carbon” co-firing technology indicates that “climate-first” considerations are not yet central to current energy policy decisions. Worrisome proposals from Chinese think tanks to delay the power sector’s emissions peak also indicating there’s still room for backsliding in the implementation of climate policies.

China must not backslide on policies & must elevate its ambitions for near-term emission reductions is no longer optional – it is a necessity for human survival

China’s next nationally determined contribution (NDC), due by February 2025, presents an opportunity for renewing its climate leadership. Historically, China has followed a pattern of setting conservative, “underpromising” targets, only to later exceed them (“overdelivering”), rather than establishing goals that fully reflect its actual decarbonization potential and global responsibilities. However, as the world edges dangerously close to the threshold of climate overshoot, with no assurance of reversing temperature increases within the expected timeframe, China must aim higher. Elevate its ambitions and unlock its full potential for near-term emission reductions is no longer optional – it is a necessity for human survival. 

China appears unlikely to meet its “carbon intensity” target under the 14th Five-Year Plan (14FYP) by 2025. The country has adjusted its assessment approach, pinning its hopes on making up ground in the final two years of the FYP. This rare shortfall could signal a higher-than-anticipated emissions peak and may compel policymakers to rethink and recalibrate the new NDC currently in the final stage of development and approval.

China appears unlikely to meet its “carbon intensity” target under the 14FYP…

…but there is hope that it will again inject fresh momentum into global climate action

China’s current climate pledges, like with those of other major emitters, fall short of the rapid decarbonization required to meet the 1.5°C target. While no major emitting country is likely to unveil a fully 1.5°C-aligned NDC within the next few months, China still has an opportunity to raise its ambition and move closer to what is needed to avoid the worst-case climate scenarios. Introducing quantitative targets, such as cutting methane emissions, and setting steadily declining carbon caps through 2035, would be practical first moves.

The hope is that, China – once hailed for injecting fresh momentum into global climate action with its “dual carbon” announcement during the COVID-19 pandemic – will again rise to the challenge, countering the setbacks caused by the upcoming Trump administration’s disruptive policies.

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