COP30: Shifting from Off Target to On Target?

COP30: Shifting from Off Target to On Target?

By Jamie Chan, Debra Tan 24 November, 2025

Did this "implementation COP" turn ambition into action? Even though 1.5°C is now out of reach, CWR's Chan & Tan find 5 glimmers of hope in Belém to get back on target

The message from COP30 is clear – we’re way off target. Scientists at COP30 issued a grave update: record greenhouse gas levels have made it “virtually impossible” to stay within the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The narrative is no longer “keeping 1.5°C alive”. Now, it’s all about “managing overshoot”. Brazil’s President Lula da Silva set the scene at the opening of COP30 in Belém. “COP30 will be the COP of truth,” he said, where we recognise that “climate change is no longer a threat of the future. It is a tragedy of the present.”

Only weeks ago, Hurricane Melissa battered the Caribbean while the Philippines was hit with two back-to-back typhoons. As Lula said, “From droughts and wildfires in Africa and Europe to floods in South America and Southeast Asia, the rise in global temperatures is spreading pain and suffering, especially among the most vulnerable populations.”

The state of the climate is grim – we’ve covered these in our past newsletters on Erratic Rivers & Rains, Breakdown of Planetary Systems,  Extreme Events, and Ice Cold Truths from our Cryosphere. But when all hope is lost, heroes turn up. At COP30, we found glimmers of hope as Global South leaders rose to the challenge.

Here are 5 “heroes” we found who could help move us from “Off Target” to “On Target.”

1. China emerges as the unwilling hero as the focus shifts from pledges to implementation

Promising to decarbonise is easy but doing it is hard. According to the UN Emissions Gap Report 2025, emissions are still rising and updated national climate commitments only bring us to 2.3-2.5°C by 2100. After being let down by years of promises and kicking the can down the road, the Global South has had enough – Brazil was adamant on turning ambition into action, branding this COP as the “implementation COP.”

So where do the top emitters – the USA, China & EU – stand? Altogether they are responsible for almost 40% of global cumulative emissions, yet their responses are highly disparate:

• The USA left the Paris Agreement. If they stayed, warming would have improved by 0.1°C… or more if they had stepped up their commitments instead of shirking their global responsibilities – the US alone accounts for almost a fifth of cumulative global emissions.
• China commits to reducing its GHG emissions by 7-10% from peak levels by 2035, with experts estimating that the peak will likely happen in 2028 ahead of its 2030 goal.
• The EU has made a diluted commitment to cut 90% of emissions by 2040 from 1990 levels.

China aims to cut 1GtCO2e by 2035…

…2x what the EU committed

China’s 7-10% goal may sound meagre but in absolute terms this amounts to 1GtCO2e by 2035 – that’s more than double the EU’s 90% commitment (446MTCO2e). All in all, over 100 countries renewed their climate commitments.

At Belém, the China Pavillion was one of the most frequented and prominent pavilions. This is hardly surprising, considering that China has emerged as a global leader in green tech and dominates the global production of renewables, EVs, and batteries, helping drive down the price of clean energy. With cheaper renewables, the IEA expects global solar use to increase by 344% and wind by 178% in the next 10 years.

Nationally, China has made astounding progress in the past 5 years towards its target of 40% clean energy consumption by 2030. It has integrated the national grid by unifying the electricity market and almost doubling UHV transmission lines to 40,000km. Energy market reform in the past years shifted to market-based pricing, mainstreamed green electricity certificates, and allowed distributed RE to connect directly to the grid.

Since March 2024, China’s CO2 emissions have been flat or falling…

…even when electricity demand grew

The reforms are working. Analysis by Carbon Brief shows that China’s CO2 emissions have “now been flat or falling for 18 months” since March 2024. In the power sector, “CO2 emissions were flat in the third quarter, even as electricity demand growth accelerated to 6.1%, from 3.7% in the first half of the year”.

So, although China has not yet stepped in to fill the leadership void left from the US’ exit, it has emerged from this COP as an unwilling hero through its track record in under-promising but overperforming.

2. Global Goal on Adaptation indicators agreed on & adaptation financing target of US$120bn by 2035 set

Failure to meet the 1.5°C goal means that adaptation is inevitable. Some have even called COP30 “the adaptation COP”.

A central focus at COP30 was on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) as parties decided on the set of indicators to measure global adaptation progress. From 100 proposed indicators, this was whittled down to 59. But while the GGA moves forward, it will be difficult to achieve these goals without stronger commitments on adaptation finance which has remained at abysmal levels.

Adaptation finance gap grew from US$187-359bn in 2024…

…to US$284-339bn per annum in 2025

From 2024, the adaptation gap for developing countries has grown from US$187-359 billion per year to US$284-339 billion per year in 2025 due to a lag in funding amid escalating physical risks. The Global Mutirão decision, which states the key outcomes of COP30, proposed to triple adaptation finance to reach US$120 billion annually by 2035 to help bridge the gap, though no concrete finance was promised.

In response, the African Bloc & the Pacific Small Island Developing States raised valid concerns that the GGA indicators would become just another reporting burden without channeling more finance into making adaptation actionable.

Here, it’s worth noting that while water indicators now represent nearly a quarter of the 38 thematic indicators of the GGA, how water figures in the GGA is far from perfect – more on this in UN technical expert Feng Hu’s opinion piece. We also urge stronger emphasis on ice melt as cryosphere decline and subsequent sea level rise is one of the biggest challenges for adaptation.

Currently, ice is mentioned in 1 of 59 indicators of the GGA. Yet, the ICCI’s State of the Cryosphere 2025 report gives us a chilling glimpse of our incoming climate reality: “a child born today and living within 2-3m of sea level rise will almost certainly lose their home within their lifetime if current emissions continue.”

We need to return to 1°C or below to prevent rapid sea level rise

The report also notes that we need to return to 1°C of warming or below to prevent widespread ice loss and rapid submersion of coastlines. If not, the rate of sea level rise will only accelerate, reaching levels beyond what is manageable for coastal adaptation.

That’s why managing overshoot and cutting emissions sooner rather than later are crucial. In Asia, climate change and cryosphere melt is already causing erratic water flows, which put our key rivers at risk. With almost half the GDP of 16 countries located in 10 river basins, we should be very worried. Energy security could also be disrupted as almost 90% of the top 30 global oil ports could be underwater by 2070 due to fast rising seas.

Kudos to Brazil for getting the final GGA indicators agreed on and a new adaptation finance target set… now we just need “heroes” to effect adaptation & fundraise.

3. Finance dominates COP30 discussions – small steps forward but huge gap remains… private finance to the rescue?

Besides funding adaptation, we also need more money to decarbonise and protect our carbon sinks. COP30 started with Brazil launching the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), a new financing mechanism for tropical forest conservation across Brazil, Colombia, Ghana, DRC, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

TFFF kicks off with US$6bn raised out of US$25bn

With an initial goal of US$25 billion, it now has US$6 billion pledged, though China and the UK have decided to abstain their investments. Some in civil society have rejected the program as a false solution, and its viability remains to be seen.

The key finance conversation centred on the “Baku to Belém Roadmap to US$1.3trn” – at COP29 in Baku last year, a new climate finance goal was set to deliver US$300 billion annually by 2035, with an ambitious aspiration to scale this to US$1.3 trillion per year by 2035 to match the actual needs of developing countries.

It was up to Belém to figure out how to set this in motion. Climate finance flows have been late to achieve their targets with the 2020 goal of US$100 billion achieved two years late. Limited progress was made on this front as other financing goals like the TFFF and the US$300 billion goal taking priority, though the Global Mutirão text decides to “urgently advance actions” to scale up finance to US$1.3trn. Independent analysis finds that the vast majority of the US$1.3trn will come from private sector.

So, we call for private finance to step up! Investing in the green economy has already proven profitable. Who would have known that BYD’s market cap could grow to almost double that of BMW?

Ramping up private investment will help reach the US$1.3trn climate finance by 2035 target

The private sector participation in the adaptation economy remains dismal, comprising only 10% of total flows. But investment opportunities in adaptation are growing to become a multitrillion dollar industry with solutions like sustainable insurance, weather intelligence, storm-resistant construction materials, and more. Adaptation finance models are already here, with evidence that every US$1 spent on adaptation this decade generates an economic benefit of $12.

4. Brazil spotlighted military emissions – the 4th largest emitter if it were a country

Emissions from military activities and wars were finally taken seriously at COP30. Leadership came from Brazil’s President Lula himself. Even ahead of COP30, he warned that “the conflict in Ukraine has reversed years of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and led to the reopening of coal mines.” He went on to say that “spending twice as much on weapons as we do on climate action is paving the way for climate apocalypse”.

Military = 5.5% of global GHG emissions…

…yet reporting is voluntary

Indeed, military emissions should no longer be ignored. The Conflict and Environment Observatory estimates that global military activities produce 5.5% of global GHG emissions. This is equivalent to the combined global GHG emissions shares of international aviation (2.5%) and international shipping (3%)! Yet reporting military emissions is entirely voluntary.

This loophole dates back to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol in which the US insisted to “exempt key overseas military activities from any emissions targets” including bunker fuels used in international aviation or maritime transport and emissions resulting from multilateral operations and from international military bases. More on this in Brown University’s Pentagon Fuel Use, Climate Change, and the Costs of War. This is hardly surprising as the US operates upwards of 750 military bases in about 80 countries.

So, while global shipping & aviation industries have made concerted efforts to measure and combat their emissions – both have net-zero targets for 2050 in place – the world’s militaries have been let off the hook, creating a huge “black hole” in the UNFCCC’s carbon accounting.

Worse still, the estimate does not include emissions from warfighting and post-conflict reconstruction. For example, rebuilding the Gaza Strip could be greater than the annual emissions of Portugal or Sweden – read what researchers Dr. Abolfathi & Kinney found on the war on climate.

Climate spending goal = US$1.3trn

2024 military spending = US$2.7trn

Military spending is expected to grow from US$2.7 trillion in 2024 to US$6.6 trillion in the next decade. If only these funds were diverted towards fighting climate change instead of wars. President Lula echoed this in his opening speech: “the men who wage war were at this COP, they would realize that it is far cheaper to dedicate 1.3 trillion dollars to solving a problem than to spend [2.7 trillion] dollars on waging war, as they did last year.”  It’s not just President Lula, you know it’s becoming mainstream when even S&P Global is covering the topic.

More than 1000x was spent on military & war than on climate last year. It’s clear that our priorities are misaligned. We need to join calls that ceasefire and extended peace are critical solutions to address the climate crisis. Maybe then we’ll finally find the money to bridge the climate finance gap.

5. Growing support for underdogs: fossil fuels phase-out, justice & indigenous rights

Outside the COP30 venue, around 40,000 protesters marched with indigenous leaders to urge governments to rapidly ramp up mitigation efforts and recognise indigenous land rights. Protesters called for climate justice, which resonates even deeper considering a new Oxfam report that finds the top 1% represent 41% of global emissions associated with private capital ownership, yet it’s the most impoverished who are at the frontlines of climate impacts. A few days later, Brazil announced the expansion of protected indigenous territories in the Amazon by hundreds of thousands of hectares, which could prevent up to 20% of additional deforestation.

A roadmap to phase out fossil fuels failed to pass in the main text…

…but action could still happen as ICJ rules that climate action is a legal duty

But inside the venue fossil fuel lobbyists were abound – they were 1 in every 25 attendees at COP30! Since COP28 in Dubai where a global commitment to “transition away from fossil fuels” was made, petrostates like Saudi Arabia have tried to stifle this discussion. In spite of this, more than 80 countries from the north and south have demanded a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. Ultimately, the roadmap failed to materialise in the final text, but the COP30 presidency has promised to spearhead the just transition roadmap away from fossil fuels to present at COP31.

Regardless, there is hope in the International Court of Justice’s ruling earlier this year, which decided that climate action is a legal duty for all countries. Failing to control emissions could result in an “internationally wrongful act” – not just for governments but also for companies. See Van Asselt on what that means for the private sector.

New monitoring tools like Carbon Mapper are also harnessing highly granular satellite data to identify point sources of methane & carbon dioxide. This added transparency allows us to chart actions to curb emissions.

But while tech & AI can help accelerate the energy transition, it can also help oil & gas companies accelerate their exploration process unlocking new reserves that may result in emissions that outweigh all potential carbon savings.

Check out our interview with Holly Alpine, co-founder of the Enabled Emissions Campaign which works to highlight this blind spot.

G77+China supported the Belém Action Mechanism for a just transition

Ultimately, the energy transition must be a just transition and COP30 saw coalescing efforts among states, courts, and civil society to drive this forward. Notably, G77+China, representing 80% of the world’s population, supported the Belém Action Mechanism (BAM), which would require countries to coordinate concrete steps toward a just transition.

Also, the COP30 presidency has leaned into the new climate era with the announcement of the Global Initiative on Jobs & Skills for the New Economy which aims to provide social protections and low-carbon upskilling. These are much needed given that the next decade is expected to create 375 million new jobs in mitigation and 280 million jobs in adaptation.

COP30 also recognised transition minerals & health as critical to the new climate economy

But embracing the new economy also means acknowledging the challenges. For the first time, the UNFCCC just transition draft text recognised the transition minerals sector, marking an important advance.  And in recognising that climate change has serious health impacts from heat-related diseases to extreme weather injuries, the WHO and Brazil also launched the Belém Health Action Plan,

So, despite the US absence at COP30, it’s clear that other countries are forging ahead to champion the needs of the most vulnerable and China is providing the technology.

We may have missed the 1.5°C target but it’s never too late to get back on track. We need to start now especially since the safe temperature limit for ice is at 1°C. In the spirit of the implementation COP, we need to turn pledges into action. We need to make peace, not war and we need to ensure the transition is just.

Climate science, the business case and social imperatives are converging. Step up and be the hero we need to make climate progress possible in this era of backsliding.

Further readings

• Water for Climate: COP29 Five Takeaways – Encouraging to hear Hu, Founder & Director of silkroad.earth, say that water was increasingly being recognised for its role in connecting & broadening climate conversations at COP29. See his 5 key takeaways
• COP28: 5 Firsts & Buts – Despite being dubbed the “oil COP” it achieved some key firsts, including the first-ever agreement for countries but all these came with “buts”. Check out our five reasons why despite the movement forward, we feel it’s not concrete nor urgent enough
• COP 27: Irrational Exuberance & 3 Signs of Imminent Crash – CWR’s Tan calls out who’s walking the talk at COP27 & mulls over 3 signs of frothiness that disguise the true extent of physical climate risks

More on Latest

• The War On Climate – Closing the Military’s Emissions Gap – Global military activity is the 4th biggest polluter after India but no reporting or reduction targets are required of the industry. Researchers Dr. Abolfathi & Kinney reveal how to hold this hidden carbon source accountable
• Enabled Emissions: How AI is Being Used to Expand Fossil Fuels – Tech firms spout support for clean energy yet continue to supply oil & gas companies with AI tools to boost extraction. Former Microsoft manager Alpine speaks out about this hidden emissions source & what to do about it
• The ICJ Says Climate Action is a Legal Duty for All Countries – What Does It Mean for the Private Sector? – Now that international courts have added teeth to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal, legal scholar Van Asselt anticipates that corporates failing to curb their emissions will face rising regulatory & liability risks