Ice Plan B Please! 3 Thoughts on Why Financial Collapse Could be Sooner Than You Think

Ice Plan B Please! 3 Thoughts on Why Financial Collapse Could be Sooner Than You Think

By Debra Tan, Chien Tat Low, Jamie Chan 23 September, 2025

Fast melting ice is the systemic risk that is far from the radar of most C-suites and financial regulators. CWR runs through 3 things you should know about ice risks to protect your bottom line

More and more corporates are now planning for climate impacts like extreme weather and sea level rise, but is anyone truly acknowledging the deadly risk of fast melting ice sheets? Ice is rapidly vanishing in the cryosphere because of rising temperatures – we are losing ice at a rate of 50mn tonnes per hour, every hour for the last 30 years.

You might think that only companies with a stake in these icy regions should be concerned with this drastic cryosphere melt. But what happens in the cryosphere doesn’t stay in the cryosphere. Rapid ice losses could trigger breakdowns in our planetary systems sooner than you think, significantly raising the risk of financial collapse posing grave risks to governments and the private sector.

Here are 3 reasons why we need to get prepared now…

1. When our cryosphere fails, planetary systems fail too… key tipping points are not 100 years away but a few decades away!

Freshwater, rainfall, weather patterns, and ocean circulation all rely on the cryosphere. It’s no wonder that two-thirds of planetary tipping points are located in the cryosphere, including boreal permafrost, Arctic winter sea ice, the East Antarctic and West Antarctic ice sheets, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

2/3 of tipping points are in the cryosphere…

…where warming is 3-4x faster than the rest of the planet!

In short, the cryosphere is one of Earth’s most critical climate regulators, yet it’s also the most sensitive to warming temperatures. So, it’s not surprising with annual warming persistently well above 1.5ºC in 2025 that our cryosphere is continuing to deteriorate. Keep in mind the Arctic and Antarctica warm 4x and 3x faster than the rest of the planet.

Already AMOC – a critical system of ocean currents that regulates our global climate – is showing alarming signs of instability. Recent studies suggest that AMOC may well pass its tipping point within decades. This will have devastating consequences for weather patterns, ecosystems, and food security.

It’s bad enough that over 40 scientists wrote an open letter to the Nordic Council of Ministers, urging immediate action to address this looming crisis. Check out our conversation with Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf, one of the signatories and the Head of Research on Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute to see how bad it is and what can be done.

There is no coming back once tipping points are passed & ice masses collapse…

The problem is that once tipping points are passed, ice masses will collapse and our Earth system will tip into an unprecedented and irreversible state, leading to a dramatic shift in coastlines around the world, the disruption of natural rainfall cycles, and extreme temperatures in Europe and around the world.

We are speeding headlong into this as emissions and global temperatures rise. The Paris Agreement target of 1.5°C refers to the average temperature over 20 years as it’s an indicator of long-term warming trends. But ice doesn’t respond to the average decadal temperatures but temperatures today.

The hotter it is, the faster it melts. Think about how fast your ice cream melts on a hot summer day… that’s happening now to our glaciers, ice sheets, snow, and permafrost. Heatwaves can get as hot as 31°C in Lhasa high up in the Himalayas to 38°C in Verkhoyansk in Arctic Siberia to 24°C in Greenland.

Worryingly, accelerating permafrost thaw releases vast stores of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, which amplifies warming in a vicious cycle. Clearly, this is an existential threat to our survival, and as we near that point, the global economy will not be spared either.

2. We can no longer ignore faster sea level rise (SLR) unleashed by fast melting ice sheets & glaciers… it’s today not tomorrow!

When ice sheets melt, global sea levels rise. If you have been following CWR, you will know we are worried about this. But now more than ever we are terrified because ice sheet & glacier losses have now overtaken ocean thermal expansion to become the No. 1 driver of SLR.

Factoring in ice dynamics makes a difference. In 2021, the IPCC AR6 WG1 included a worst-case scenario for SLR that didn’t factor in rapid ice sheet losses and a “cannot be ruled out” (CBRO) scenario that does. The difference is massive: ~1m versus ~2m by 2100.

Financial losses at either of these levels are tremendous. Remember, in 2021 the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) ran a pilot climate stress test and the results showed that around a third of Hong Kong banks’ property loan books are vulnerable to climate risks, especially floods and typhoons. This amounts to ~HK$1 trillion at risk… and that just by 2050 for ~0.5m of SLR. Such exposure levels could certainly cause financial collapse, so can you imagine what we could lose when SLR is at 2m?

Within 5 years, ice sheet & glacier melt has become the largest contributor to SLR

Here, it’s worth noting that at the time of the IPCC AR6 WG1 (2021), thermal expansion was the largest contributor to SLR (~50%) but in a short 5 years, this has been overtaken by accelerated melt from ice sheets & glaciers. Indeed, Greenland Ice Sheet losses today already track IPCC AR6 worst-case projections. In East Antarctica, glaciers are retreating some 25 years sooner, contributing ~30% more to SLR by 2100 due to ocean freshening under the ice sheet.

Feedback loops which cause vicious cycles that accelerate melt are also concerning. These mechanisms, now observed to be widespread across the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, are causing runaway melt under marine ice sheets adding to SLR. Hear from ice sheet specialist Dr. Chen Zhao on why this is happening and what this means… it’s scary, these “hidden processes” may triple the ice flowing into the ocean.

Top listcos are stress testing for 1m of SLR by 2100…

…but it’s very likely that we’ll see 1.9m by 2100

At this rate, it’s likely we’re tracking the CBRO scenario. Indeed, a new method built on the IPCC AR6 now projects that it’s “very likely” global sea levels will reach 1.9m by 2100 under a high emissions scenario. Don’t believe us? Hear directly from sea-level science leader Professor Horton – he was a review editor of the IPCC AR6 & authored the IPCC AR5. He’s also the AXA Chair in Natural Hazards and the newly appointed Dean of the School of Energy and Environment (SEE) at City University.

Yet, top listco’s are stress testing to 1m of SLR by 2100, if at all, making them blind to this risk. Surely, we should be stress testing at the CBRO scenario and coming up with an adaptation Plan B for rapid ice melt?

At least, all corporates in Hong Kong certainly should given that the CBRO ice scenario is existential – see how to survive this. Banks should do the same as 62% of loan books of the 17 APAC banks are concentrated in sectors vulnerable to coastal threats. The AIGCC with an AUM of US$36trn agrees with us in urging banks to stress test for the CBRO scenario of SLR – see our open letter to banks.

Still, even as pressure mounts on companies to stress test and disclose climate risks, ice risks remain obscure as none of the disclosure guidelines/ risk frameworks have accounted for/included the cryosphere.

3. Our cryosphere is the biggest climate & nature risk, yet it’s not obviously featured in IFRS-S2 & TNFD frameworks

IFRS-S2 requires companies to disclose climate risks and opportunities. It includes a list of physical risks to account for including slower-moving chronic risks such as rising water scarcity & sea levels. However, these slower-moving risks are now speeding up due to rapid ice melt, yet this link may not be obvious to many in the business & finance world.

Underpinning chronic physical risks & extreme weather is the cryosphere…

…but is it on the radar for corporates?

Crucially, because the cryosphere underpins all these chronic physical risks as well as exacerbates extreme weather events, we believe that it should be specifically highlighted. Right now, cryosphere risks are not even mentioned. If they are not on the radar, how would corporates know to stay on top of what’s happening there? And what’s happening there can be significantly material as continuing drastic ice sheet losses can bring forward and amplify all physical climate risks.

Worse still, cryosphere science is evolving fast as we are only now able to observe its reaction to warming. This will affect how we should factor in risks associated with ice tipping points. What about other cryosphere-related climate impacts like AMOC collapse? Rigorous capacity building is needed now to ensure that corporates & finance are up to speed with the latest science.

Ice losses are not just about “poor penguins & polar bears”…

…it will lead to lost assets & financial write downs

Right now, no one is paying attention to what’s happening in our polar regions. Most of us will think “poor penguins & polar bears” when we read about ice losses in the Arctic/ Antarctica when we actually should be thinking… s#*t!! ice losses = faster SLR = asset/city underwater = $$$ write down.

Compounding this blindspot is that most of the existing physical risk stress testing tools used by corporates/banks to assess climate risks DO NOT take into account cryosphere risks adequately. This means that this systemic risk continues to remain hidden even as ice losses continue to accelerate. The danger of getting blindsided only grows greater.

Enter TNFD, the Taskforce for Nature-related Financial Disclosures. Surely, the cryosphere (seeing as it’s so integral to nature) should be featured there?

We looked at the final “TNFD Recommendations” which lists the general requirements that companies should follow when disclosing nature risks. There was only one mention… “polar-alpine biome” in the “Guidance on Biomes” which helps organisations understand the biome that their business model and value chain interface with. However, although it was mentioned, no guidance was provided. Anyway, even if there was guidance, it would only be relevant for companies with direct engagements in the Arctic region, such as a Scandinavian timber company.

Also, it’s worth noting here that the cryosphere only made it into the “Land Realm” – it was missing in the “Freshwater” and “Ocean” realms. This is worrying as the loss of ice sheets would wipe out swathes of small island nations and coastlines around the world. Paradigm shifts in sea ice losses are also affecting polar oceans, climate and related biodiversity.

As for water… permafrost melt, glacier & snowfall losses are already threatening mountain communities from the Himalayas to the Alps. Let’s also not forget the Himalayan Water Towers and its critical role as the source region for the mighty Yangtze & Ganges Rivers as well as glaciers for farming in Central Asia.

Ice sheet collapse could pose a systemic risk to corporations

You have to dig further into other report appendices and supporting documents to find mentions that ice sheet collapse could pose a systemic risk to corporations. Who’s going to drill down that far? So for all intents and purposes, cryosphere risks are absent.

The framing of ice loss as just a regime shift on local ecosystem level has failed to acknowledge that this has regional and global ramifications. We must do better. Given the rate of deterioration of our cryosphere and its critical importance to multiple planetary functions as well as the stability of our global financial systems, it’s time we gave the cryosphere proper dues – feature cryosphere risks prominently, not bury it in some appendix.

The danger is not going away… in fact, it’ll likely get worse…

While we wait for these frameworks to catch up with the latest cryosphere science, it’s up to corporates themselves to decide whether to acknowledge the canary in the coalmine that is melting ice. Regardless, the window for action is closing as record-breaking temperatures continue to rise.

When we published our Stop the Melt factsheet guide in March 2025, the consensus was that ice was in the danger zone at 1.5°C and 2°C was certainly too hot for ice. But in May 2025, a new Nature publication warns that 1.5°C is too hot for polar ice sheets and leading cryosphere scientists now say that the safe threshold for ice sheets is closer to 1°C. We are clearly far from this – see chart.

As our planet heats up, no one will be immune from cryosphere risks. Ironically, even the oil sector is shooting itself in the foot. As our new report shows, two-thirds of global oil is traded by sea yet almost 90% of the world’s 30 largest oil ports serving the Top 5 producing, consuming, exporting & importing nations will be submerged on our current emissions path. See the full report or press release.

Rapid emissions cuts = protect the cryosphere

Transformative adaptation = protect ourselves

Delivering rapid & deep emission cuts is the only way to protect the cryosphere and avoid multi-metre SLR. Rethinking energy security is also necessary as fast melting ice can also unleash coastal blackouts as sizeable portions of power assets are affected at 1m of SLR, now possible by 2070 on our current emissions path.

As some impacts are already locked-in, transformative adaptation is the only way to protect ourselves. Already, insurance premiums are soaring while some insurers have pulled out in certain vulnerable regions.

Losing ice is the most critical risk we’ll face. We can no longer afford to ignore the looming financial collapse it portends. It’s time to pay ice its dues and draw up a Plan B for Rapid Ice Melt.

Further readings

• Help “Stop the Melt” with our new 13-Factsheet Guide! Let’s slow down sea level rise & preserve our freshwater ice banks – a “13-Factsheet Guide to Stop the Melt” to slow down sea level rise and preserve freshwater ice banks launched by CWR
• Top 4 HK developers ill-prepared for climate risks! – New CWR report points to material write downs & insurance hikes for tycoons with stakes in listco’s with assets worth over HK$2.3trn as resilience measures disclosed are not commensurate to escalating risks ahead
• Climate ‘Tipping Points’ Can Be Positive Too – Our Report Sets Out How To Engineer A Domino Effect Of Rapid Changes – One poke too many is all it takes to pass the point of no return but what if climate tipping points were positive? Smith, Zimm & Lenton share how we can trigger these & key takeaways from their Global Tipping Points Report

More on Latest

• Dr. Chen Zhao on Antarctica’s Subglacial Melt – A Sea Level Rise Driver We’ve Missed – Glaciologist Dr. Zhao on the hidden threat beneath Antarctica that could drastically accelerate sea level rise
• CWR Talks to Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf on the Decades Away Breakdown of the Atlantic Current – What is AMOC and why would its collapse catastrophically disrupt the global climate? Hear from the leading expert Prof. Rahmstorf about this looming climate threat you probably haven’t heard of
• Crude Awakening 2 – Top 30 ports face looming double threat of global oil trade disruptions & rising energy insecurity from faster sea level rise – 2/3rds of oil produced globally is shipped yet almost 90% of world’s largest oil ports including Brazil’s could be impacted by fast rising seas by 2070. Find out which ports are safe or going under