Crude Awakening 2 – Top 30 ports face looming double threat of global oil trade disruptions & rising energy insecurity from faster sea level rise
By CWR 23 September, 2025
2/3rds of oil produced globally is shipped yet almost 90% of world's largest oil ports including Brazil's could be impacted by fast rising seas by 2070. Find out which ports are safe or going under
Hong Kong, 17th September 2025 – CWR releases a new report: “Crude Awakening 2 – Oil trade to face growing risks as rapid ice sheet losses drive faster sea level rise” highlighting a looming double threat of global oil trade disruptions and rising energy insecurity from accelerating sea level rise (SLR). Almost two-thirds of global oil produced is shipped, yet the report finds that nearly 90% of the world’s 30 largest oil ports serving the Top 5 oil producing & consuming as well as exporting & importing nations could be hit by fast rising seas by 2070 on the current emissions path, unless such critical infrastructure is adapted.
This grim irony of oil supertankers being overwhelmed by rising sea levels was raised earlier this year by the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, citing work derived from CWR’s earlier “Crude Awakening 1” report published in 2024. However, continued rising emissions and the acceleration of rapid ice melt worried the think tank, leading it to collaborate with global cryosphere scientists to unpack “ice risks” and expand its assessment of SLR threats to energy infrastructure from 15 to 30 ports this year.
Just 1m of SLR can disrupt 26 out of 30 major oil ports…
…impacting 49% of global crude oil exports & 50% of imports
The new report warns that just 1m of SLR (now possible by 2070 if current emissions continue) can disrupt 26 major oil ports which serve countries that provide up to 49% of global crude oil exports and up to 50% of crude oil imports; and that’s just for the Top 5 exporting & importing nations of crude oil.
COP30 host Brazil, ranked #5 globally by oil demand, is also impacted as oil terminals in Santos, the country’s key port will be affected by 1m of SLR. It’s not just the Amazon that is deteriorating but also our cryosphere. “Rapid glaciers as well as ice sheet melt in Greenland & Antarctica has now overtaken thermal expansion of our seas to become the no.1 driver of sea level rise” said Tan, the Director & Head of CWR. This is because “ice sheet losses in Greenland & Antarctica have accelerated, quadrupling since the 1990’s driving faster SLR” she explained.
Ice sheet losses have increased 4x since the 90s…
…speeding up SLR 2x
These alarming losses indicate that future SLR could be much larger and sooner than previously thought. Indeed, this prompted the UN to produce a technical brief “Surging Seas in a Warming World” to provide the latest science since the last IPCC assessment in 2021. The UN brief noted a doubling in the rate of SLR over the last 30 years and warned that if warming persists, ice sheet losses will only accelerate, speeding up SLR further.
New safe threshold for ice = ~1°C
But warming throughout 2025 has been >1.5°C
Still, science is evolving. Last year, cryosphere scientists warned that warming of 2°C was too hot for ice but new research now shows that even 1.5°C is too hot. In May 2025, scientists said the new safe threshold for ice sheets is closer to 1°C. But annual global warming has persisted above 1.5°C throughout 2025 putting the oil sector and countries that rely on the oil trade in jeopardy, says CWR.
According to the think tank, key oil importing nations like Japan & South Korea are particularly vulnerable, but so are key European oil import ports of Rotterdam & Algeciras. Other chokepoints noted are the Strait of Malacca & the Suez Canal – Strait of Malacca ports of Singapore, Tanjung Pelepas & Pengerang are all vulnerable to 1m of SLR while Suez ports of Said & Suez will only be affected at 2m of SLR, possible by 2100 if current emissions continue.
Shrinking sea ice opens up the Arctic route..
…existing trade routes & ports may lose importance
The early vulnerability of the Strait of Malacca to fast rising seas has clear energy as well as economic implications for both Malaysia & Singapore and other countries which rely on these oil transit hubs, warns CWR. The report also highlighted that fast melting sea ice has opened up the Arctic route for some parts of the year. As this route opens for longer periods over the summer, existing trade routes and ports could eventually lose strategic importance.
Oil exporters are not immune. Rising seas also pose a serious threat to economic security of major oil exporting countries like Saudi Arabia & Iraq unless ports are future-proofed against rising risks. Up to US$887bn worth of trade in crude (US$619bn) and refined petroleum (US$269bn) could be impacted, as fast rising seas could sink the 7 key ports serving the Top 5 crude oil exporters (ex-Canada), the report states. Even when adapted, oil exporting nations could still be at risk if importing nations fail to adapt their vulnerable ports.
Ironically, pumping more oil will only further accelerate SLR. “The hotter it is, the faster ice melts; there’s no negotiating with the melting point of ice. The only thing that will slow down rapid ice melt and fast rising seas, is deep and rapid emissions cuts. Given the looming double threat to the oil trade & energy security, it is certainly in the interest of the oil sector and any country which relies on oil for energy or economic security to rethink energy & fast track transition today” Tan stressed.
Fossil fuel financing in 2024 = US$869bn
…mainly for expanding production & for infrastructure
Yet, money is still pouring into oil. According to Banking on Chaos’ Fossil Fuel Finance Report 2025, fossil fuel financing commitments from 65 of the world’s biggest banks increased significantly by 23% to US$869bn in 2024. Almost half of this is going towards expanding fossil fuel production and infrastructure, but new projects could face disruptions from 1m of SLR, which may occur within project financing timeframes.
With so much at stake, CWR urges a rethink of energy security & transition today, not tomorrow. Although 1m of SLR by 2070 is on the cards on the current emissions path, because seas do not rise evenly, the report notes that some regions could experience close to 1m of SLR by 2050. In short, 26 oil ports could be impacted between 25 to 45 years’ time. As this is not that far away, CWR recommends countries that are reliant on the oil trade for energy and/or economic security; bankers, investors & insurers; as well as oil majors to get on top of what’s happening in the cryosphere and conduct more in-depth analyses on the exposure of their critical energy infrastructure.
Media
For more information, please contact: info@cwrrr.org
Quick access – Key takeaways & charts
- At-a-glance global oil flows vulnerable to rising seas – map of key oil ports impacted at 1m, 2m and 3m of sea level rise
- Know real risks ahead: key updates on ice losses & SLR
- Top 10 crude oil producers, consumers, exporters & importers
- Japan & South Korea energy security threats ahead: key supply & receiving ports are vulnerable to 1m of SLR
- Other chokepoints: Strait of Malacca, Suez Canal, key European ports & Santos
- Reality check: global & oil emissions on the rise = increasing sea level rise risk
- 3 Recommendations for countries that are reliant on the oil trade, bankers/investors/insurers & oil majors
Further readings
- Larry Fink, Did You Know that 84% of CK Hutchison Ports are Vulnerable to Just 1m of Sea Level Rise? – Which ports are at risk? Are ports in the America’s more vulnerable than Europe’s? Check out the ice cold truths that BlackRock should chew on when carrying out due diligence
- Let’s “Stop the Melt” to Save our Himalayan Water Towers & Slow Down Rising Seas! Start with CWR’s New 13-Factsheet Guide… – It’s time to start a conversation on ice as the precarious state of our cryosphere brings a torrent of “hidden” risks. Get the low down with these factsheets curated with top cryosphere scientists/institutes & see what’s happening at the front lines from our poles to mountains
- Crude Awakening! Fast rising seas threaten global oil trade & energy security – Almost 2/3rds of global oil produced is shipped by sea but 12 of the Top 15 Tanker Terminals are impacted at just 1m of rising seas. CWR’s new report reveals why oil no longer provides energy security but instead threatens it
More on Latest
- Dr. Chen Zhao on Antarctica’s Subglacial Melt – A Sea Level Rise Driver We’ve Missed – Glaciologist Dr. Zhao on the hidden threat beneath Antarctica that could drastically accelerate sea level rise
- CWR Talks to Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf on the Decades Away Breakdown of the Atlantic Current – What is AMOC and why would its collapse catastrophically disrupt the global climate? Hear from the leading expert Prof. Rahmstorf about this looming climate threat you probably haven’t heard of
- Ice Plan B Please! 3 Thoughts on Why Financial Collapse Could be Sooner Than You Think – Fast melting ice is the systemic risk that is far from the radar of most C-suites and financial regulators. CWR runs through 3 things you should know about ice risks to protect your bottom line
Read more from CWR →
