Global Meltdown – Climate, Tariffs & Managed Retreats

Global Meltdown – Climate, Tariffs & Managed Retreats: The meltdown from Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs have dominated headlines but the more worrying meltdown of ice, which has dire consequences for us all, is flying under the radar. So this month, we ponder climate upsides to the tariffs as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) unpacks the state of global climate. And as the Ocean Climate Platform & Sea’ties explore the managed retreat of cities to rising seas, we also wonder if Li Ka Shing is also executing a ‘managed retreat’ of his 43 ports for the same reasons.

Scientists have been sounding alarm bells on the dangers ahead such as increasing freshwater scarcity & fast rising seas, especially if we don’t dial back on emissions. We even recently published factsheets to “Stop the Melt” but is anyone paying attention? Sadly, the critical news of our climate meltdown has been drowned out by tariffs wars.

We must pay attention … the WMO’s recent “State of Global Climate 2024” has alarming findings. To unpack this, we spoke to the report’s lead author, Dr. John Kennedy. He paints a grim picture – GHG levels, ocean heat content & global mean sea level rise – all hit new records in 2024. Find out what this means in our interview with him.

Dr. Kennedy also explains the critical state of our oceans and shares how glacier losses will impact Asia. Can multi-hazard early warning systems make societies more resilient to extreme weather & climate? Check out the WMO’s key recommendations.

Another way of being more resilient is through ‘managed retreat’. Unlike emergency management, a managed retreat is an effective and planned effort to permanently move people, buildings, and activities away from climate threats. Given the rapid rate of sea level rise of 1m by 2070 on our current high emissions path, managed retreat could well be the best option for coastal cities.

Here, we turn to Palazot, Segonds & Bongarts-Lebbe, the authors of The Ocean Climate Platform & Sea’ties latest report “Managed Retreat: Preparing coastal cities to sea level rise” to get the low down. Is managed retreat a last resort or a transformation opportunity? Can rehousing address social injustice for poor or marginalised groups? Check out the pros & cons of this adaptation strategy.

But it’s not just cities that are planning retreat from sea level rise, corporates may also want to “manage retreat” by selling down their vulnerable assets today because by the time everyone is aware of coastal threats, no one will want these assets. Could this be what Li Ka Shing is doing?

We took a look at this with our latest brief addressed to Larry Fink as we thought BlackRock and its consortium of buyers should know the real risks ahead before they buy CK Hutchison’s ports. Indeed, our quick analysis revealed that 36 of the 43 ports would be vulnerable to 1m of sea level rise, which is possible by 2070 if current high emissions were to continue.

Already, accelerated ice melt is causing fast rising seas but warming for the 12 months to March has reached 1.59°C, alarmingly close to triggering tipping points for multiple ice sheets which hold tens of metres of SLR.

Since there’s no negotiating with the melting point of ice, Larry Fink should really price in adaptation costs into his port buying spree of US$22.8bn as adaptation can be costly! They could be hundreds of million to more than a billion per port for around 1m of sea level rise. Elsewhere, melting permafrost could also destroy US$51bn worth of building and road infrastructure in Alaska by 2050 under the high emissions scenario.

Damages will be in the trillions if we cannot slow down fast rising seas. Ironically, while Trump’s liberation tariffs caused a global meltdown, they may provide unintentional reprieve for climate change and water risks. Here, we share 5 unintended climate upsides from fashion, renewables & transport to data centres.

Will tariffs change the business of fashion for the better? Will everyone still want renewables? Will there be carbon savings from delivering less packages due to the removal of tariff exemptions on small parcels? After all, 1 billion parcels fall under this category. What about AI & data centres? Their electronic components may be exempt for now, but power/grid build outs also require parts from China.

Trump is certainly no climate hero but he may have triggered unintended “forever changes” in global supply chains and these related emission cuts could slow down global warming, ice melt and fast rising seas. We can only hope for this as climate change won’t wait for us to sort out trade wars.