5 Trends for the Year of the Rabbit

Mad Hares or Happy Bunnies? – Can the calm Rabbit counter the brash Tiger?  Will happy bunnies restore global harmony or will mad hares pervade sending us all spiraling down dark rabbit holes? With climate impacts outpacing adaptation, it’s time to exit Wonderland.

So this month, take the red pill with our annual 5-trend forecasts to see how far the rabbit hole of water risks really goes.

It’s only the first month of the Water Rabbit Year and already New Zealand has been devastated by floods/typhoons; as have Brazil and South Africa. Like the White Rabbit in Alice in Wonderland, we will all wake up to the reality that climate impacts have outpaced our adaptation efforts.

Water risks will hit everyone, everything, everywhere, all at once demanding transformative adaptation. But rising political & physical risks brings distraction and a higher chance of financial collapse.  As the “water” element also presides over this year, expect fluidity and “slipperiness” of such risks to be amplified.

Rising seas is one such risk that could sink banks. UN Chief Guterres warned, “Low-lying communities and entire countries could disappear for ever. We would witness a mass exodus of entire populations on a biblical scale.” Hong Kong is low-lying.

Corporates and financial regulators are not stupid; they are acting. Like Link REIT (Asia’s largest REIT) which leapt to the forefront to catalyse transformative resilience with “low-regret” stress tests.

We talk to Dr Calvin Kwan, REIT’s Director of Sustainability & Risk Governance on why stress test; which scenarios; plus he runs through key results & benefits of including these in LINK REIT’s annual report.

Financial regulators are also worried.  As wily hares have 3 burrows (狡兔三窟) , we expect regulators to set up a three pronged defense (“three burrows”) to avoid double blind maximum risks that could trigger financial collapse.

One of these burrows is standardizing disclosure. On this front, a game changer is on the horizon, the highly anticipated release of the new ISSB standards, slated for mid-2023.

ISSB Chair, Erkki Liikanen, said recently that it is important that Asia actively participates, and that China is an important jurisdiction. What’s their Asia plans? How well are Asian companies disclosing GHG emissions? Eco-Business’ Ng Wai Mun expands.

As corporates, regulators and enlightened governments work to build a safe “Watership Down”,  we have to be careful … wrong moves could end up with flooded burrows.

We are standing at a precipice: hare-raisingly close to the end of the world not just from nuclear war but also from climate breakdown.

We are closer than you think; which is why we must start talking about permafrost.  It’s BAD – scientists say today’s warming already locks-in additional annual emissions from permafrost thaw on par with Japan’s yearly GHG emissions. Worse still, these permafrost emissions are not included in our carbon budget – they will further narrow our window to cut emissions – see by how much here.

Warring’s oil bonanza also narrows this window. Basically staying within 2°C is not possible without Russia, the country with the largest swathe of Arctic permafrost, which if thawed could derail all our emissions efforts. But right now, what are the chance of the US and the rest of the Arctic Circle countries sitting down to talk?

We have hope … the yin Rabbit favours diplomacy, peace, harmony and collective action so this year we’re hoping that we’ll stop hating and start loving, make friends out of enemies and start multiplying ideas.

Don’t fight the cycle; ditch the mantra of the top lone tiger/ mad hare and embrace win-win outcomes of the collective. Remember, it’s not divide and conquer but united we may have a chance – we are one big rabbit colony.

So hop to it! We must breed innovations like rabbits to avoid the 4°C world we are hurtling towards. Indeed, the IPCC warned of a 4°C “regional rivalry – rocky road” scenario (SSP3); this will lock-in annual permafrost emissions on par with China’s emissions today!

It’s clearly time to take the red pill to get out of Wonderland and put “multiple paws” on the brakes to slow our fast ride to climate hell. It’s the year of the Rabbit for goodness sake – make love not war! Hop forth and be a happy bunny…