Too Fast, Too Soon – Vanishing Ice & Rising Seas

Too Fast, Too Soon – Vanishing Ice & Rising Seas

By Debra Tan, Chien Tat Low 21 November, 2023

With persistent global warming, the 'Big Melt' we fear has begun in the polar regions, leading to unprecedented ice loss & devastating sea level rise. Get on top of some ice cold facts with CWR's Tan & Low

Not talking about ice is dangerous. It means we’re not asking the right questions – does faster ice melt mean that multi-meter sea level rise (SLR) is more likely than not? Will this happen sooner rather than later? Have we started adapting to rising seas; are these levels enough?

Accelerated ice melt has the capacity to unleash unimaginably devastating SLR…

In contrast, we are talking about black rain, flash floods, dam bursts and uncontrollable fires – can they be prevented? Are we safe/how can we be more resilient? What about early warning systems/better drainage/ fire management?

These threats are now part of our everyday conversations because we already feel them. But deep in our polar regions, accelerated ice melt which has the capacity to unleash unimaginably devastating SLR remains hidden.

Existential threats to coastal cities, including HK…

Large chunks of ice have disappeared but because this is out of sight and out of mind we are not talking about the dire impacts melting ice and escalating SLR will have on coastal cities around the world.

…“The danger is especially acute for ~900mn people who live in coastal zones at low elevations.” – UN’s Guterres…

Already, UN’s Guterres voiced his concerns during the Security Council Debate in February this year: that from London, New York to Shanghai, “Mega-cities on every continent will face serious impacts”. He is worried: “The danger is especially acute for nearly 900 million people who live in coastal zones at low elevations.”

He warned that rising seas can sink our futures; it is not just a threat but a threat multiplier.

Faster and higher SLR can throw off other adaptation efforts against too much rain/ floods as it will impact drainage as well as raise storm surge levels. Rising seas is not a one-off event but a permanent submersion redrawing our coastlines.

…CWR’s stress test on ~200,000 assets shows HK faces existential threat from multi-metre SLR

Hong Kong is not exempt – as you can see from our stress test of around 200,000 assets that multi-metre SLR poses an existential threat to the HKSAR yet melting ice is far from our thoughts. And because melting ice is not part of our everyday conversation or news cycle, we are not aware of the fact that seas are rising faster than we initially expected.

Well, the “Big Melt” we feared has started too fast, too soon…

Faster than we think…

Previously, we thought Antarctica was a bastion of ice which will not melt and contribute to sea level rise within this century. We were wrong. An Antarctica ice shelves stocktake shows that out of 162 ice shelves, 71 lost mass – 48 of these lost more than 30% of their initial mass between 1997-2021.

The harsh truth is that we’ve underestimated climate impacts on the Arctic and Antarctica. So much so that ice/polar scientists now warn that the 2°C warming limit is too high – we must stay within 1.5°C to slow down significant ice melt and rising sea levels.

Leading ice scientists warn that 2°C is too high, must stay within 1.5°C

Leading global scientists and policymakers are so worried that they formed a new group at COP27 – the AMI (Ambition for Melting Ice) to “raise the urgency of emissions reductions to prevent growing and irreversible global impacts from cryosphere loss for every fraction of a degree of warming above today”.

Recently, the AMI together with the ICCI (International Cryosphere Climate Initiative) hosted an event “The Road to COP28: Melting Ice, Rising Seas and Why 2°C is Too High” – we listened in – the presentations left us deeply concerned about the current state of ice – you can watch them here.

But no one knows…

But perhaps even more alarming is that fact that this video has only been watched 3.5k times as per our last check; it should be watched by millions of key decision makers, especially across Asia given the gravity and depth of impacts to the region.

“Many ice sheet scientists never thought they would see this level of melt in their lifetimes” – ICCI Director Pearson

We reached out to Pam Pearson, the Director of AMI Secretariat as well as the ICCI, for more insights. She did not mince words … “based on what we have seen in the past 20 years, loss from both ice sheets is running well ahead of earlier projections”.

How fast it is melting is scary. According to Pearson, “many ice sheet scientists never thought they would see this level of melt in their lifetimes”. If you want a dose of ice cold facts, we highly recommend you read our interview with Pam Pearson – you too will be terrified and start thinking and talking “ice” and SLR adaptation after that.

Ice is already in the “danger zone”…

According to Pearson, “even 1.5°C is in the danger zone; 2°C is definitely “too high”.

Indeed, a slew of ground-breaking research recently published on melting ice all have horrifying implications for our coastal cities. We aim to summarise all these next year in a special edition on ice but here are just two horror headlines from research published by Nature in October/November 2023:

• Scientists now find that irrespective of our efforts to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the melting of the West Antarctic ice shelf over the 21st century is now “unavoidable” due to committed rapid ocean warming (3x faster). This is the ice shelf holding back the precarious Thwaites Glacier, dubbed the Doomsday Glacier due to its ability to cause widespread coastal destruction – the collapse of Thwaites Glacier could result in around 0.6m of SLR; whereas the West Antarctic Ice Sheet holds 3-4m of SLR.
• Over on the other end of the planet in Greenland, scientists are now saying that the critical threshold of global mean temperatures beyond which will trigger abrupt Greenland ice-sheet loss is between 1.7 °C and 2.3 °C above pre-industrial levels. If warming breaches 1.7°C, partial to complete loss of the ice-sheet is expected, eventually bringing about 7m of SLR. Already, another Nature study published in November showed that >1,000 glaciers are melting 5x faster than 20 years ago.

Unimaginable levels of SLR triggered – 3-4m from West Antarctica & 7m from Greenland

Whether these shelves, which are holding back unimaginable levels of SLR, will collapse in our lifetimes depends on how much and how fast we warm. Every fraction of a degree of warming counts when it comes down to ice.

This is why Pearson urged us to cut fossil fuel emissions sooner rather than later – this decade rather than the next as “we cannot negotiate with ice”. She added “Thinking we can turn back the clock in 2040 or 2050 or 2060 without causing extensive global loss and damage is a fantasy; and we need to face physical reality”.

The gloves are off…

Pearson is not the only one sounding alarm bells. Over in Singapore, it was made clear at an event earlier this month that breaching 1.5ºC means we will face even more dire consequences and that we should make every effort to prevent this.

Alarm bells on multi-metre SLR & the importance not to overshoot 1.5°C also being rung in SG

The messages for the audience were frank and equally terrifying. The gloves are off after seeing how bad things really are in Antarctica this year – 5m by 2150 warned by the IPCC report could well be a reality. Singapore, as one of the most at risk countries to SLR was urged to do much more, especially as there is nowhere to escape to if melting ice unleash existential levels of SLR.

Like Pearson, emission cuts within this decade were also urged – we all need to be doing more with only six years and two months left until we need to hit peak emissions.

Remember, melting ice and rising seas once triggered are irreversible, so it is important not to overshoot 1.5°C – as it is, we are already so very close…

We are so very close to 1.5°C – we even hit 1.75°C of warming for the month of September!

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recently noted that September 2023 was far hotter than before; specifically 1.75ºC warmer compared to the pre-industrial period; this puts us on track for 1.4ºC for 2023. As the chart below shows, the rate of y-o-y increase is worrying in the 21^th Century.

2023 is now on track for 1.4ºC…

…may well breach 2ºC by 2055 at current rate

No matter which institution, 2023 annual warming is tracking 1.34-1.4ºC compared to 0.63-0.68ºC back in 2000.

If we continued emitting and warming at this rate, we may well breach 2ºC by 2055. This would clearly be disastrous for ice as well as our coastal cities and populations.

Since drawing the chart below, the October numbers have come in. Sadly, there was no let-up – October warming stayed high at 1.7ºC. Now the WMO says that warming is at 1.43 ºC for year-to-date (Jan to Oct) 2023.

The window to stop this and slowdown the “Big Melt” is fast closing. We must urgently cut emissions but at the same time, we must adapt for impacts because rising temperatures is really bad news for water in all its formats from ice to rivers and rain, don’t just take our word for it, check out our interview with the WMO’s Director of Hydrology, Water & Cryosphere, Dr. Stefan Uhlenbrook.

The window to stop this & slowdown the “Big Melt” is fast closing…

…we must urgently cut emissions but at the same time, we must adapt for impacts

According to Uhlenbrook, as we are now entering the El Nino period, temperatures will likely rise further and the probability of crossing the 1.5ºC threshold in the next 5 years remains quite high. The WMO says 66% by 2027. Uhlenbrook also says more research and longer timelines are needed to inform adaptation and urges policy makers to stop subsidizing fossil fuel to rein in emissions.

Underestimated! Antarctica warming, ice loss and projected SLR…

1.5°C of warming may not sound like much but it is important to understand that this is the global average. In Antarctica, it was much worse.

Last year, an unprecedented heatwave struck East Antarctica and temperatures rose by a whopping 40°C to around -10°C; they should have been -50°C. This year, the maximum extent of sea ice surrounding Antarctica during winter reached “mind-blowing” low levels – it was 1.75mn km² below the 1981 to 2010 average. This means that the area of sea ice loss is more than half the land area of India!

 Area of sea ice loss in Antarctica >half of India…

…Antarctica now 2x hotter than the global mean; higher than IPCC AR6 prediction

Scientists now find that Antarctic is now warming 2x faster than the global average temperature. Published in August 2023, these new findings raise concerns that IPCC AR6 projections may have significantly underestimated Antarctic warming, ice loss and projected SLR.

This adds to the ever-growing body of publications since the issuance of the IPCC AR6 that show we have underestimated the sensitivity of ice dynamics to warming.

Surely this is more the reason to heed the IPCC AR6’s low confidence but high impact scenario that 2m of sea level rise by 2100 and 5m by 2150 “cannot be ruled out due to deep uncertainty in ice sheet processes”.

How high can seas rise?

5m sounds unimaginable but it is important to look back at history. Sea levels were 6-9m higher in the last interglacial period where global temperatures were around 1°C warmer than pre-industrial periods. In short, we have likely locked in 6-9m of SLR. When this will happen depends on how fast we warm; and how fast we warm depends on how much carbon is in the atmosphere.

In the past, 3-4m of SLR occured within a century…

…worryingly, we are now warming at a faster rate than when that happened

Given that we know that 3-4m of SLR can happen within a century and that we are warming at a faster rate than when that happened, surely it is better to heed the IPCC’s advice and mount transformative adaptation to defend high impact areas in our coastal cities against the higher “cannot be ruled out” levels?

Fears of fast melting ice and multi-metre SLR are not new. Renowned ice scientists like the late Konrad “Koni” Steffen was already warning that 5m could happen possibly in the next 50-100 years before he passed away from a tragic accident in Greenland in 2020.

Steffen was clearly concerned about the state of melting ice – his powerful message encapsulated by short video produced by NASA. Why listen? Steffen was Director of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) as well as the Lead Author of the IPCC’s Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate published in 2019.

Don’t wait … start adapting now!

We often deprioritise SLR adaptation as we think this is something happening in some far off time in the future but given the sorry state of ice, we need to start this now.

The call to step up adaptation action is gaining momentum – just had the One Planet Polar Summit hosted by the French President

The call to step up adaptation action is gaining momentum. Did you even know that earlier this month there was a One Planet – Polar Summit? Hosted by President Macron, the summit raised the alarm about the scale and speed of melting ice and permafrost thaw. The risk of crossing thresholds and tipping points for ice and abrupt SLR is real. And we haven’t even talked about permafrost feedback loops – see 3 must-knows about permafrost.

As rapid ice melt and rising seas have dire consequences for coastal populations, Sea’ties, an initiative of the Ocean & Climate Platform unveiled a series of “Policy Recommendations to Coastal Cities to Adapt to Sea Level Rise” supported by 80 organisations globally; we are one of them. Hear about this from the Ocean & Climate Platform directly.

But what levels should we prepare for? Given that the “Big Melt” has started at rates ice sheet scientists would have never imagined, it’s better to be safe than sorry – take a low-regret/ just-in-case approach rather than a just-in-time/ incremental approach to adaptation planning. After all, for every one additional cm of SLR, 2 to 3 million more people will be threatened by annual floods according to Jérôme Chappellaz, the other Co-chair and Chairman of the Ice Memory Foundation – get the lowdown from the summit here.

For every additional cm of SLR, 2-3mn more people will be threatened by annual floods…

…and don’t forget about the ice in the mountains, which have lost 2% of their total volume in 10 years

And let’s also not forget about another bastion of ice that is fast melting – the Hindu Kush Himalayas. This is the source region for 10 rivers – one in two Asians rely on these river basins for water and 865GW of power generation capacity are located there. In the past decade alone, global mountain glaciers have lost 2.72 trillion tonnes of ice or 2% of their total volume. These ice losses will not only result in faster rising seas but also eat away our “free freshwater reserve bank” in the form of ice.

There is simply too much at stake – lives, livelihoods and swathes of cities underwater. We cannot afford to get this wrong. We are not saying we must build 2-5m of SLR coastal defence right now, but we must have a plan for these levels. The fact that the levels of carbon we have in our atmosphere today is similar to those in the Pliocene means that it is ever more urgent to start planning for multi-metre SLR now as they will eventually happen – during the Pliocene seas were as much as 25m higher than they are today.

“3m might be passed early in the 2100s”  should today’s emissions continue & exceed 3°C+ of warming

If you are still not convinced, check out the recently published State of Cryosphere Report 2023 which warned that “3m might be passed early in the 2100s” if CO2 emissions continue to increase at today’s pace and cause 3°C+ of warming. Shockingly, new stats are now showing that 2°C will commit us to 12-20m of SLR.

It’s time to stop fighting and talk ice…

As you can see, it’s bad, our cryosphere is literally in the ICU. The sad state of ice is telling us that there is no time to waste. Deep emission cuts are needed to abate escalating SLR – we must get back to driving oil cuts plus rein in ballooning ICT emissions. But we must also start adapting to locked-in SLR.

There’s a very slim chance to peak warming at 1.7°C…

…so all eyes on COP28 to deliver deep oil cuts

Global mean temperatures were already higher than 1.5°C for at least 122 days this year. But it’s still not too late – there is a very slim chance that we may still be able to peak warming at 1.7°C and stay within the 2°C too-hot-for-ice threshold. But we have to stop fighting wars, make peace and work together.

We’ve taken the eye off the ball but we cannot afford to do so anymore. The “Big Melt” which is out of sight and out of mind is happening – the consequences are terrifying – we must stop it. We should all be urgently talking about melting ice and its ability to cause widespread destruction of life as we know it now.

Rapid ice loss & fast rising seas demand our attention…

…2°C is too hot for ice as it’ll commit us to 12-20m of SLR 

…1.5°C is the only option to avoid loss of coastlines on a massive global scale

Vanishing ice and rising seas too fast, too soon demand our attention. We can no longer afford to ignore them … start by getting on top of ice cold facts.

Then all eyes on COP28 where we must deliver serious fossil fuel cuts if we are to have a chance. Oil & gas cannot stay at current projected peak levels for 2030-2050; they must, like coal, decline steeply after peaking in 2030. So fingers crossed  on oil cuts in Dubai next week. We must deliver as 2°C is too hot for ice – “1.5°C is the only option” to avoid “loss of coastlines on a massive global scale”.

Further Reading

More on Latest

• 2°C Too Hot For Ice & Rising Seas – A Conversation with ICCI Director Pearson – Lead ice scientists are calling to “take 2°C off the table” and you’ll understand why from our conversation with ICCI Director Pearson, who makes it clear just how bad the situation is for our cryosphere, ice sheets & sea level rise but she still has some hope
• What Does 1.5°C Mean For Water? A Conversation with WMO Director of Hydrology, Water & Cryosphere Dr. Uhlenbrook – To unpack what unprecedented temperatures means for extreme events, melting ice & sea level rise, we chat to Dr. Uhlenbrook, WMO Director of Hydrology, Water & Cryosphere. Plus, see how soon he thinks we will cross the 1.5°C threshold
• The Ocean & Climate Platform Launches Its Recommendations For Coastal Cities To Adapt To Sea Level Rise – Adapting to irreversible rising seas is a collective challenge so to help cities, OCP released policy recommendations. Bongarts-Lebbe shares key priority areas & what’s next