COP28: 5 Firsts & Buts

By Dawn McGregor, Yisih Chai, Sophie Lam 21 December, 2023

Despite being dubbed the 'oil COP' it achieved some key firsts, including the first-ever agreement for countries but all these came with 'buts'. Check out our five reasons why despite the movement forward, we feel it’s not concrete nor urgent enough

Right off the bat, there were many concerns that this year’s COP would not achieve much. Dubbed as the “oil COP”, with over 2,450 oil and gas lobbyists in attendance, which was 4x higher than any previous COP, it is surprising that we managed to achieve various firsts, including the first-ever agreement for countries to transition away from fossil fuels. However, all these firsts come with “buts”. So, while there has been movement forward, like previous COPs (catch-up on COP26 & COP27) we feel it’s not concrete nor urgent enough – here are five reasons why:

1. Finally, a global call to transition away from fossil fuels! But loopholes galore + oil & gas production ramping up

Let’s face it – the latest global stocktake says we need to cut GHG emissions by 43% by 2030 to keep 1.5°C alive – there is no doing this without transitioning away from fossil fuels. So, it’s good to see that the first-ever Global Stocktake at COP28 (conducted every five years) where Parties have to determine how to respond to the stocktake findings resulted in everyone agreeing to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”.

First-ever Global Stocktake agrees to transition away from fossil fuels; first time oil & gas is included in final agreement…

…but it’s loopholes galore with linguistic gymnastics

This was the most notable outcome from COP28 as it is the first time oil and gas has been included in the final agreement. It didn’t look like it was going to happen with such wording painfully absent from the draft text but thankfully it did in the end, albeit with linguistic gymnastics. There were 100+ countries that wanted the wording “phase out” of oil, gas and coal but this was met powerful opposition from OPEC. And it doesn’t end there, preferred language from the fossil fuel industry is clear in the final agreement including “transition fuels” (code for natural gas), “carbon capture” and more.

However, despite the language dilution industry pledges were tabled. The UAE and Saudi Arabia jointly launched an Oil & Gas Decarbonisation Charter (OGDC) just four days in. The new initiative aimed to table the top 50 companies representing more than 40% of global oil production to “net-zero operations by 2050 at the latest, and ending routine flaring by 2030, and near-zero upstream methane emissions”. This included oil giants like BP, ExxonMobil and Shell; Chevron Corp and ConocoPhillips were notably absent. The remaining 60% of the signatories were National Oil Companies (NOCs) – like Brazil’s Petrobras, Nigeria’s NNPC and Kazakhstan’s KazMunaiGa – which was “the largest-ever number of NOCs to commit to a decarbonization initiative”.

New Oil & Gas Decarbonisation Charter launched…

…but nowhere does it require to reduce production

On top of this Charter, a ‘first-of-its-kind’ Transparency and Accountability Measure was jointly launched by Bloomberg Philanthropies, EDF, IEA, and others. This is to implement a new set of emissions accountability frameworks to track progress made by the signatories, which is a good step as this will hold the pledges accountable.

But here comes the “but” – nowhere in the deal does it actually require these companies to reduce their oil and gas production or make them set tangible short-term targets to achieve net zero. And who is to say this is not yet another green wave for them to ride on – after all the Western oil giants who joined the new Charter – BP, ExxonMobil and Shell – have backpedaled big time on their pledges before.

Ironically, a couple days before COP28, the Guardian revealed that US oil and gas was set to break record production in 2023. Indeed the IEA projects oil and gas to only peak by 2030 and to stay close to peak levels for another 20 years; meanwhile it projects a steep decline for coal after 2030. This begs the question – why aren’t there plans to phase out oil and gas like there are for coal?

2. 120+ countries agreed to triple renewable energy by 2030! But efforts negated with fossil fuel growth

Over 120 countries signed the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge agreeing to key targets by 2030 – tripling renewable capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements. This will bring global renewable energy capacity to at least 11,000 gigawatts (GW) in just six years – more than 20% higher than current projections.

120+ countries pledged to triple RE capacity by 2030…

…but not India & China but does that matter with their RE growth trajectories?

But there are questions whether this is even possible with already signs of strain across the renewables industry. Already while 2022 was a record year for renewable energy ($495 billion invested globally, up 17% from 2021), the IEA says the pace is still not aligned with reaching net zero by 2050.

On top of this major emitters like China and India have not signed up – mostly due to anti-coal language in the Pledge. However, both have backed calls for ambitious renewable targets and capacity expansions. Already this year, China is projected to reach 230GW of new wind and solar in 2023 – more than double the US and Europe combined. Moreover, China is expected to double renewables by 2027. India meanwhile has an aim to triple its renewable capacity to 450GW by 2030. Given China’s and India’s existing growth trajectories and commitments, both countries are already adding significant renewables regardless of the Pledge.

$2.5bn in fresh pledges for RE…

…but more is needed – investments must hit $4.55trn

The other good news is that COP28 also put on the table over $2.5 billion in fresh pledges for renewables. This provides good momentum needed to make the renewable energy shift we badly need this decade. But let’s not forget more is needed – according to BNEF annual energy transition and grid investment must hit $4.55 trillion between 2023-2030.

Of course, such all-out efforts on renewables will be negated if fossil fuels continue to grow. Let’s hope Jennifer Morgan, Germany’s climate envoy is correct, “If you’re an investor, the future is renewable. Fossil fuels are stranded assets.”

3. Loss and Damage Fund finally set-up! But it’s just a start – a lot more funds are needed

The Conference had a strong start with the announcement during the Opening Plenary of the operationalisation and capitalisation of the much talked about loss and damage fund that was first agreed at COP27. Developed countries pledged a combined total just over US$700 million into the loss and damage fund.

This is a good start but there are of course several contentious points still. Firstly, the US$700 million is far from enough – it’s equivalent to less than 0.2% of the economic and non-economic losses developing countries are facing from rising temperatures every year.

Loss & damage fund operationalised with >$700mn in pledges…

…but it’s 0.2% of annual losses…

…US only pledged $17.5mn…

…questions still remain around deployment

Another is the make-up of the US$700 million. The US, the biggest historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter pledged a mere US$17.5 million, one of the smallest pledges. Comparatively, Germany, Italy, France and host UAE each pledged US$100 million or just over, significantly more than the US. And then there are the views around whether China and India, the biggest and the third biggest current GHG emitters should be paying into the fund or collecting from it. And on the funds themselves, it was agreed they should be new but in some cases aren’t, like the UK’s £60 million, which was taken from an existing climate finance pledge.

It’s also unclear how, where and when the funds will be deployed. Will adaptation measures against sea level rise which we have severely underestimated be included? How will the funds be allocated? Is there a prioritisation methodology? So many questions are still unanswered. Even with these points and questions it is crucial that the funds be deployed soon as we are already feeling the impacts.

And while on the topic of finance, though US$3.5 billion in new pledges were made to the second replenishment of the Green Climate Fund, overall financing commitments and discussions on climate and adaptation finance were largely absent from this COP, despite the trillions urgently needed to help us cope with escalating and compounding climate impacts, which brings us onto the next point on water.

4. Water & ice still MIA from key discussions & climate agenda = shooting ourselves in the foot

We had hoped to see more “water” in the COP conversation this year as water had its own day at COP27. But we were sorely disappointed as this year it was lumped together with food and agriculture in the “Food, Agriculture and Water Day” – so back to being painfully missing from key discussions and the climate agenda.

Water & ice back to being sidelined at COP…

…clearly bad as water is how we feel climate impacts

This is clearly bad as water is how we mainly feel climate change and it is especially worse as warming is accelerating – 2023 has broken all warming records and is on track for at least 1.4°C of warming for the year. Shockingly, on November 17^th global temperatures even exceeded 2°C above the pre-industrial average. At 1.5°C “ice is in the danger zone” and 2°C is “definitely too high for ice” – it is melting too fast, too soon which has disastrous consequences for chronic water scarcity for billions of people around the world as well as sea level rise which will devastate coastal populations. So, why is water still on the sidelines? Why is it not an integral part of the carbon conversation? Afterall, for every additional tonne of carbon emitted, three square meters of Arctic ice melts, according to Inge Relph, Executive Director & Co-founder, Global Choices.

Every additional tonne of carbon emitted = three square meters of Arctic ice melts

This wouldn’t be news if you visited the two cryosphere pavilions at COP28 hosted by the ICCI. Events were organised in conjunction with the Ambition on Melting Ice Group to highlight the crisis state of our cryosphere. We interviewed the Director and Founder of ICCI & AMI so get your cold hard facts on melting ice directly from her here or if you want a broader view check out our last newsletter.

You’ll see we are so close to triggering multiple ice tipping points, which will trigger irreversible sea level rise. So why isn’t ice or sea level rise mentioned in the final agreement? Why is water only mentioned 7 times?

At least on the water front, there was the Water4Climate pavilion (started at COP26) that hosted several events, 30 more countries signed up to the Freshwater Challenge (protect 30% of freshwater ecosystems by 2030), the UAE pledged US$150 million for water security solutions in vulnerable communities and the UK also announced a partnership (including £40 million of funding) with the World Bank for the Just Transitions for Water Security programme.

Some strides for water…

…but just a drop in the ocean given escalating risks…

…water must be higher on the agenda at COP29

But this is just a drop in the ocean of funds that will be needed to adapt to escalating and compounding water risks. On this front it was positive to see water gaining prominence when it comes to adaptation. A water target was included in the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). The GGA framework reflects a global consensus on adaptation targets and the need for finance, technology and capacity-building support to achieve them.

Water is the only resource we cannot live without- especially with rising temperatures water must be higher up on the climate agenda at COP29 next year in Baku, Azerbaijan.

5. Other firsts, overlooked risks & interesting points + 1 big overlooked solution

Other COP firsts

• Health Day – This year there was the first-ever health themed day during which over 120 countries have signed a health declaration, which focused on strengthening healthcare systems as a means of climate adaptation. Health and climate are interlinked and so it is good to see action on it.

Key overlooked risks beside water

• Won’t reach 1.5°C without solving food issues – The real weight and importance of our food system to the climate was made clear. “Even if you were able to fix the just energy transition and go completely renewable, you still wouldn’t be able to reach the 1.5 degrees if you don’t solve the food systems issue. That’s how big of a cause this is. Food systems will now be center stage in all future COPs.”, as stated by the UAE’s Minister of Climate Change and Environment.
• The climate risks from war – War, be it in Ukraine or Gaza or wherever brings emissions, distracts from climate efforts and at times water can be used as a weapon. Let’s hope that the theme of World Water Week 2024, “Bridging Borders: Water for a Peaceful and Sustainable Future”, will come true.

Interesting points

• Actions on methane – Positively, there were various actions to address methane emissions including five nations joining the Global Methane Pledge, the US unveiled new regulations and China agreed to include methane in its next NDC.
• Clear youth dissatisfaction – 12-year-old Licypriya Kangujam managed to rush on stage despite tight security at the Conference and braved the strong anti-protest environment in the UAE to hold a sign that said “End fossil fuel. Save our planet and the future”.

1 big overlooked solution

In all the discussion around solutions at this COP, the power of collective action was not included in any key way, meaning a big solution was overlooked. The latest IPCC AR6 report included a chapter on demand side management of emissions, the first time ever, which showed this can cut 40-70% of GHG emissions by 2050 given the right conditions. We hope to see this more meaningfully tabled next year as we need to be hitting all the solutions we can.

Leveraging collective action for reducing emissions needs to be tabled next year

Until then, check out how making smarter choices can end oil, greener gifts for the festive season and the success of Carbon Canteen, the initiative of a HK ISF student. As we’ve shown, all of our actions matter, Together We Can.

Further readings

• COP 27: Irrational Exuberance & 3 Signs of Imminent Crash – CWR’s Tan calls out who’s walking the talk at COP27 & mulls over 3 signs of frothiness that disguise the true extent of physical climate risks
• Are We More Or Less Water Secure Post COP26? – Find out what COP26 means for water security with CWR’s Debra Tan as she reflects on frank conversations had by ministers & water leaders at a high-level water security forum on the eve of COP26 in Glasgow.
• Too Fast, Too Soon – Vanishing Ice & Rising Seas – With persistent global warming, the ‘Big Melt’ we fear has begun in the polar regions, leading to unprecedented ice loss & devastating sea level rise. Get on top of some ice cold facts with CWR’s Tan & Low
• 2°C Too Hot For Ice & Rising Seas – A Conversation with ICCI Director Pearson – Lead ice scientists are calling to “take 2°C off the table” and you’ll understand why from our conversation with ICCI Director Pearson, who makes it clear just how bad the situation is for our cryosphere, ice sheets & sea level rise but she still has some hope
• Code Red: 8 things you need to know about water in IPCC AR6 – IPCC AR6 is a code red for water too! CWR’s Debra Tan shares 8 things you may have missed on water and urges to delay no more
• IPCC AR6: High Hopes For Oil & The US + China & The Rest Of Us – Rapid and big action is needed to stay within 1.5ºC. What is the best plan of action? Which sectors need major cuts? Who is still financing oil & gas?  Find out and more in CWR’s key takeaways from the latest IPCC AR6 WG3 report
• G20: Don’t Just End Coal; Add Deep Cuts For Oil & Gas Too – Producing >60% of coal, oil & gas, G20 is trying to end coal yet still subsidising oil & gas. Why does this happen? Which countries are most responsible? CWR’s Ronald Leung brings to light the motivations behind

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• Catching Up with CWR’s Ex Intern Isabel Picazo on her Carbon Canteen Initiative – It’s been 9 months since Carbon Canteen completed its trial period so, we catch up with Picazo to find out how it went, what the challenges have been & what’s next
• Ending Oil By Making Smarter Choices – Did you know oil lurks in 95% of our everyday products? Maybe that’s why we can’t end oil… CWR’s Lam unveils where oil is hiding & how you can make smarter choices
• Green Gifts That Keeps On Giving – Ready for a greener holiday? CWR’s Chai shares five environmentally friendly gifts that keep on giving – think experiences, donating, renewables & more