15FYP New Era of Self Reliance: More Water for National Security

15FYP New Era of Self Reliance: More Water for National Security

By Debra Tan, Ziyang Cai 20 March, 2026

China is building multi-front resiliency for stability. Our analysis of its 2026-2030 strategy finds water at the heart of its policies for economic, food & energy security

The 15^th Five Year Plan (15FYP), just approved in the Two Sessions this March, marks the start of the next 5-year phase of accelerating China’s march towards “a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious and beautiful”. But as this year’s Two Sessions kicked off just after the start of the Israel-US-Iran war, we weren’t sure what we would find when we went looking for water in the 15FYP.

We are pleased to say that we saw water everywhere, even when it was not specifically mentioned. Water is still very much a priority and a lynchpin of national security – it is integral to the “new development philosophy” that Premier Li Qiang in his work report urged China to apply “on all fronts, move faster to foster a new pattern of development, and promote high-quality development”. Read on for why.

Building multi-front resiliency …

To sum, the 15FYP is all about advancing faster and becoming self-reliant faster.

But this must be done without sacrificing the vision of a Beautiful China AND national security and stability must be maintained always. As national security and stability have long been top priorities, it’s hardly surprising amidst peak geopolitical tensions and looming global oil, gas & fertiliser shortages that China is doubling down on shoring up resilience on multiple fronts from the economy & finance to food, energy & water.

Complex geopolitics makes self-sufficiency even more important

Enduring global tariff volatility means it’s boosting domestic consumption rather than relying on exports to drive growth. At the same time, China will reinforce its global dominance in Made in China 2025 sectors where it leads plus “resolutely work” to stay globally competitive eventually becoming the global leader for the others. All the while step-by-step ensuring that the ENTIRE supply chain for these sectors remain Made in China to protect the nation from exogenous shocks to ensure national security & stability.

Kicking off the 15FYP in the advent of a global oil & gas crisis also reaffirms the prescience of China’s sensible commitment to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. It is pretty evident now that decarbonisation does build energy security resilience. We did say last month that the Fire Horse will bring about rapid change triggering a shift to a new world order … we never imagined it would be this soon.

But here we are. So how is China positioned?

A holistic strategy for national security …

National security is a recurring thematic – as Premier Li says “Security is a prerequisite for development, and development provides a guarantee for security”. The good news is that China, according to the Premier, should be “guided by a holistic approach to national security”.

On this front he singled out the “need to improve supply capacity for food, energy, and resources” in his work report when laying out the “major strategic tasks” for the 15FYP period. As water is a key input for both food and energy, water is the No.1 key resource that must be secure.

National security = water + food + energy security…

This prioritisation of water is great because it’s not just geopolitics that’s shifting but also our water cycle that is shifting from “Water A” to “Water B”. So, building resilience against this physical shift is equally important. The fact that water, hydro, rivers, lakes and reservoirs turn up 22 altogether vs. geopolitics & tariffs which turned up only 1 time each in the work report underscores water’s importance.

Premier Li also stated that China will work to “deliver economic work under new circumstances” with the attitude of “preparing for the worst while striving for the best” – we read this to be a clear recognition of shifting landscapes in both water resources as well as geopolitics. Thus, the urgent need to ensure the availability of basic but critical resources of food, energy & water, because without these, there is no security nor stability.

It’s all interlinked! Here’s how China moves to secure food, energy & water in the 15FYP …

Food security … China is still driving more crop per drop

A grain output target of 725mn tonnes has been set for 2030. With production for 2025 at 715mn tonnes, China is looking at an increase of 10mn tonnes of grain. However, it’s looking for this increase in output on less water with utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water targets for 2030. These utilization coefficient targets for agriculture were set back in 2012 when the government implemented “most stringent” water management plans to control water use.

In 12 years, China cut water use by Germany’s total while adding agri value equal to Switzerland’s GDP

Since then, there has been a 12% utilization coefficient target improvement (2012-2024 latest available data). This has resulted in a fall in agriculture water use of around 25bn m³ for the same period despite an increase in the total gross output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fisheries of CNY7.6trn. For perspective, this agriculture water savings of 25bn m³ is greater than the annual total water use in Germany and the increase in agri output value of CNY7.6trn is greater than the IMF’s projected 2025 GDP of Switzerland of US$1trn.

Interestingly, China’s 2024 total agriculture water use of 365bn m³ is very close to the central government targets for agriculture water use set in 2012 of 360bn m³ by 2025. See a 2014 No Water, No Food report we wrote with HSBC.

For 2025-2030 during the 15FYP, we are looking at a further 3% improvement for the coefficient utilization target so expect a further reduction in total agri water use going forward. We expect China resolutely continuing to drive more crop per drop in the 15FYP as this will materially increase water security capacity – more on China’s plans to build “little giants” in the water savings industry – see these 2030 waternomic targets in our new brief “China’s 15FYP Outlook for Water Security & Resiliency”.

Energy security … decarb will accelerate in the 15FYP for water & energy savings

When we said in our Trend #4 last month that “market forces overtake decarbonisation ‘neigh-sayers’ to drive decarb in Asia”, we didn’t anticipate a new war to further accelerate transition. With no end in sight at the time of writing, we will likely be locked into the SSP3-7.0 (Regional Rivalry) scenario – which will only accelerate climate change and Water B. Also let’s not forget that all the emissions related to war – everyday military activity amounts to 5.5% of global emissions, and that doesn’t even include the emissions of ongoing conflicts & reconstruction.

But for now, all eyes are on soaring oil and natural gas prices in the scramble to ensure energy security. No one is unscathed but China is better positioned than others with its vast electricity supply that is hardly reliant on gas – estimated only 2.8% of electricity generation in 2025 compared to Japan (~30%), S Korea (~25%) and . Also, let’s not forget that China has alternate sourcing for both oil & gas from Russia plus China’s ships may still be allowed safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz at the time of writing this article.

Nevertheless, we will likely see a faster transition to EVs to counter oil shocks for China. Indeed, EVs have posted positive momentum with adoption rates in December 2025 of Higher oil prices plus prioritising energy security will likely see China fast track the transition of electric trucks and electric ships – both on the cards for the 15FYP.

Shifting to clean power = reducing the impact of geopolitics + cut energy sector’s water use

Also a priority in the 15FYP is building an energy secure electrostate, especially since most of its “6 emerging pillar industries” (integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, low-altitude economy, new energy storage & intelligent robots) and “strategic frontier industries” (embodied AI, quantum computing, nuclear fusion, 6G, biomanufacturing, brain-computer interfaces) require lots of power.

Although China’s poised to capitalise on its massive energy infra investments from the grid to VPPs plus electricity market deregulation, the weak link is still water – a key ingredient in thermal power generation

Here, as renewables can deliver both water & carbon savings, we see China move to secure a double win to de-water & decarbonise powergen by increasing its wind & solar capacity in 2030 by 1.16TW. This takes their share of national powergen capacity from 47% at the end of the 14FYP to 53% by the end of the 15FYP. Find out how much water switching to renewables can save in our 2016 report with IRENA – WEF just cited this here.

If we include nuclear and hydropower expansion in the 15FYP, thermal power’s share of total installed capacity will shrink further from 39% in 2025 to 35% by 2030 – see graphs for this plus more on resilience in hydropower expansion in our new brief: “China’s 15FYP Outlook for Water Security & Resiliency”.

Lastly, don’t forget that switching to renewables will also help reduce industrial water use. In case you were not aware, powergen accounted for almost half of industrial water use in 2025. And as China has further targets on industrial water use, where better to start than changing power mix. We cover waternomic targets for both GDP and industrial water use for 2030 as well as China’s drive to decouple development & water in our new brief: “China’s 15FYP Outlook for Water Security & Resiliency”.

Water security is the lynchpin for a Beautiful China & National Security …

We said that in the Fire Horse year, “China will gallop ahead with a new 15FYP to shore up water security & resilience risks in Water B” and we were not wrong. The broad direction for water in the 15FYP can be categorised into 2 goals: 1) “Beautiful China”; and 2) “national security”. The strategies to achieve these are not obvious as water is embedded everywhere.

So, we have pored through multiple guiding opinions, major tasks, multiple plans and news announcements and summarised China’s direction of travel in water in: 2 Goals, 4 Directives and 8 Actions.

These are must-reads if you want to decipher what will happen with water for the next 5 years of the 15FYP.

But beware! This is not just for the water sector but every sector which needs water as an input in its supply chain. Moreover, all of us will be impacted by Water B – and if you are not ready for this, all the more reason why you should find out what China’s doing to prepare for this now!

Further readings:

• No Water, No Growth 2 – Rising river risks threaten half the GDP of 16 Asian countries – Asia’s future hinges on the Himalayan rivers but can they continue to support the continent’s growth in a changing climate? Find out which countries are leading or failing in “waternomics” from CWR’s latest report
• China’s “War on Pollution”: 10 Years of the Water Ten Plan – How did China transform its water quality in just 10 years? To celebrate the 10th anniversary of the Water Ten Plan, IPE & Green Jiangnan’s report highlights China’s key achievements in water pollution control since its launch
• Looking for water in China’s 14FYP – The new China is not the old China. CWR’s Xu & Tan went searching for water in the 14FYP and are left feeling optimistic, see why in our review

More on Latest:

• China’s 2 Goals, 4 Directives & 8 Actions to Prep for a New Era of “Water B” – We dived deep into the 15FYP, countless speeches & opinions to distill key takeaways for China’s Water Outlook for the next 5 years – water will be key to a Beautiful China & national security
• Staying Resilient: Inspirations & Insights from Young Women Leaders in Water – Why join the water space? Hear from CWR’s past & present female staff reflect on their early career journeys & what keeps them going
• Building AI-Driven Sustainability Intelligence with Climind’s Karen Wang – The biggest challenge for climate startups isn’t building the tech but finding the right pain point to solve, shares entrepreneur Wang