We’re 70 years late! The future is today

We’re 70 years late! The future is today – Climate impacts we were going to be dealing with in the future are here today as witnessed this summer. With a 50:50 chance of breaching 1.5°C by 2026, we are 70 years late to the game in adaptation. So, this month we take a look at rivers that are running dry today and explore how corporates as well as governments (China & Australia) are planning to survive. Also, can new townships like Hong Kong’s Northern Metropolis leapfrog ahead and how bad can heatwaves get?

While news coverage on event driven climate disasters has been plenty, there’s not been nearly enough conversation on underlying chronic risks. Besides rising seas, failing river systems can also pose existential threats. Rivers are our lifelines and drive significant chunks of GDP – up to 92% of Pakistan’s GDP is derived in the Indus River Basin. The recent floods were devastating, the scale unimaginable – 33 million affected, yet the situation worsens with food shortages ensuing.

Elsewhere, rivers are running dry today, not tomorrow. This summer the Yangtze, Po, Rhine and Colorado rivers ran dry causing crippling power outages, in some cases power generation was down 50%. Crops were destroyed and jobs lost – billions of dollars went down the drain … find out more in our deep dive into five rivers.

These rivers are the industrial/agricultural heartlands for China, Pakistan, the US and Europe – if not well managed basin risks could trigger further disruptions in food and energy security as well as global supply chains. Companies need to be aware of these risks since they have material impacts, like the US$63 billion price tag for private insurers from recent Hurricane Ian in the US.

Indeed, riskier and costlier water risks and climate-related water risks are drastically reshaping the operating environment, even for leading companies. It’s survival of the fittest.

Companies need to get on top their risks to plot a survival guide. Though as we’ve heard from many of them, it’s easier said than done, but that’s why we are here to help. It’s our job to stay on top of the climate science and emerging strategies like being water positive. Now is the time for companies to commit to their and the world’s survival. There has never been a bigger impetus than the existential threat from the climate crisis to change what business as usual means forever.

China is especially vulnerable to water-related climate risks but that also means increasing capacity for adaptation and it has recognised that. Indeed, China has some of the world’s most ambitious investments in adaptation infrastructure.

This isn’t surprising as climate adaptation and water are closely linked in the minds of China’s senior leaders as Scott Moore, Director of China Programs & Strategic Initiatives at UPenn, points out. See what else China is doing and the policy examples the world should learn from, says Moore.

Meanwhile, in Australia which is still reeling from climate disasters, there are increasing calls and debate for managed retreats and buyouts. For high-risk areas like New South Wales that flooded four times in 18 months, action is more urgent as this isn’t an issue for the future, but now.

How do managed retreats work? Are there any success stories? How can governments manage it? Honorary Associate Professor at Australian National University, Tayanah O’Donnell answers these questions and more.

Closer to home there is the Northern Metropolis project. Soon after it was announced Christine Loh, Chief Development Strategist at The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, grasped the opportunity to launch the ‘Sustainable Northern Metropolis’. We sat down with Loh to talk about the project’s vision, risks, opportunities for Hong Kong to climateproof with Shenzhen and more – check out our interview with her.

Something else we are already feeling today are hotter days with temperatures soaring to 51ºC in Pakistan this May. Heatwaves are among the deadliest climate and weather-related disasters and already 30% of the world live in deadly heat and humidity levels at least 20 days a year.

And worryingly, poorer countries will be 2-5x more exposed to heatwaves by 2060, which risks billions of dollars. Wealthy countries can buffer risks by investing in climate adaptation. Mojtaba Sadegh, John Abatzoglou and Mohammad Reza Alizadeh share more key findings from their research.

Clearly, the consequences of our slow progress on decarbonisation have caught up to us. Plus, our focus on net zero over adaptation has left us dangerously maladapted. We urgently need to ramp up adaption and jointly pursue it with decarbonisation to tackle the accelerating and intensifying climate impacts.

We hope that adaptation will gain more traction/prominence at COP27. We also need to urgently table and address climate injustice, which will only widen as the lack of resources to adapt mean that poorer countries will suffer more.