The Big Melt – Ice Loss & Fast Rising Seas

The Big Melt – Ice Loss & Fast Rising Seas: We never thought Antarctica, a bastion of ice would vanish this soon but that’s what is happening. The “Big Melt” we have feared is here and has the capacity to unleash unimaginably devastating impacts. So, this month we talk cold hard facts with ice experts to find out why 2°C is too hot for ice and rising seas, what 1.5°C means for water & actions to help coastal cities defend against irreversible sea level rise (SLR).

It’s all happening too fast and too soon for our ice. From Antarctica to the Arctic and in between in the mountain glaciers, large chunks of ice have disappeared – in some cases half the size of India. But because this is out of sight and out of mind, we are not talking about it, which is dangerous.

Dangerous because this means we are not asking the right questions, not making the right decisions. As a result, 900 million people living in low-lying coastal areas are at risk as unprecedented ice loss = devastating SLR.

We’ve underestimated the amount of ice loss at current temperatures causing lead ice scientists and policymakers to form a new group: “Ambition on Melting Ice” (AMI). Recently, the AMI called for 2°C to be taken off the table and so we spoke to AMI Director of Secretariat, Pam Pearson, to find out why.

Pearson, also the  Director of the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI), warns that ice sheet losses are well ahead of earlier projections so much so that “many ice sheet scientists never thought they would see this level of melt in their lifetimes” – hear from her on the latest trends in ice.

Also, find out how high seas can get with our current levels of CO2 of around 420ppm – the number will shock you! No wonder Pearson says “1.5°C is in the danger zone – 2°C is definitely too high”. But Pearson still has some hope – see what she thinks our priorities need to be (especially re fossil fuels) – after all, we can’t negotiate with ice but can with each other.

Pearson’s urgent call to cut emissions was also echoed by Dr Stefan Uhlenbrook, Director of Hydrology & Cryosphere at the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). He worries that multiple hazards will not only escalate but may also compound as they are interconnected – many of which are water-related.

We also asked Dr Uhlenbrook: how soon we will cross the 1.5°C threshold? (It’s way sooner than you think!) So, what does this mean for rivers, floods/droughts, melting ice & rising seas? Which water risks are moving faster? Get all the answers from our interview with him and don’t miss out on his key advice.

Given all these cold hard facts, it was positive to see President Macron host the “One Planet – Polar Summit” this month to raise the alarm about the scale and speed of melting ice, permafrost thaw and rising seas. There, Sea’ties an initiative of the Ocean & Climate Platform, supported by 80 organisations, unveiled a series of “Policy Recommendations to Coastal Cities to Adapt to Sea Level Rise”; CWR is one of the 80 and is mentioned in the document.

Want a summary? Théophile Bongarts-Lebbe of Sea’ties runs through the 4 priority areas and what’s next after the Polar Summit with the upcoming COP28. Watch this space – there will be dedicated workshops on the Southeast Asia region in 2024.

The risk of crossing warming thresholds and ice tipping points is real and likely; especially since 2023 is on track for 1.43ºC of warming. As it is, irrespective of our efforts to limit greenhouse gases, the melting of the West-Antarctic ice shelf by 2100 is now unavoidable due to committed rapid ocean warming (3x faster) – this is holding back 3-4m of SLR.

Ice losses are unprecedented and rising. Switzerland has lost 10% of its glacier volume in under 2 years – at this rate, half of Switzerland’s glaciers will be gone within a decade – this has serious implications for the Rhine, Rhone, Danube & Po Rivers. It’s not much better in the Himalayas.

Our cryosphere is literally in the ICU – the gloves are off – we must start talking about ice and what the big melt means for our “freshwater ice banks” and the devastating multi-metre SLR it will unleash on our coastal cities. Life as we know will change – every additional cm of SLR means 2-3 million more people will be threatened by annual floods.

Don’t wait. There’s a very slim chance we can peak warming at 1.7°C; we must take it. So all eyes on COP28 in Dubai and fingers crossed on fossil fuel cuts – we must deliver as 2°C is too hot for ice – 1.5°C is the only option to avoid “loss of coastlines on a massive global scale”; 2°C will commit us to 12-20m of SLR.