Soaring High or Scorched Earth?

Soaring High or Scorched Earth? The Dragon is the most powerful animal in the Chinese zodiac so we can expect a strong year with little to no let-up. So is 2024 the year for soaring high or will we go down in flames? Find out in our 5 trends for the Year of the Dragon.

In Chinese legend, Dragons are the rulers of weather and water, such as rainfall, waterfalls, rivers, and seas; and they lived in the water themselves. So this year, with escalating water & climate risks as global warming accelerates, it is critical that we too channel the Dragon and put water at the heart of our agenda.

How can we deal with “scorched earth” and unimaginable havoc ahead? The good news is that the Dragon brings strength, innovation and luck, all of which we will need. It’s going to be an epic battle to tame both the “Fire & Ice dragons”. So arm yourself with our forecast for the Year of the Dragon.

Broken records will be the new norm in 2024 and we didn’t have to wait long… we start the Dragon year with roaring news that we’ve breached the 1.5°C target. Warming soared to 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels for Feb 2023 – Jan 2024. In 2022, we only stood at 1.15°C.

The Dragon in its many water forms – rain, sea and ice – will be unleashed but in new majestic proportions. In 2024, we will feel its watery and scorching wrath sparking a rush to adapt for rising risks. “Doomsday prepping” will enter mainstream dinner conversation. But don’t maladapt! To truly survive the onslaught of climate hazards to come, we will need massive transformation.

The reason why we are dealing with a “scorched earth” is because we are now tracking the IPCC’s high and very high emissions scenarios of SSP3-7.0 – Regional Rivalry and SSP5-8.5 – Fossil-fueled Development. Indeed, “Tiger & Dragon fighting” means that SSP3 may well be our base case – check out why.

The added carbon cost from conflicts and wars is not going to help. The war between Russia and Ukraine could have already caused 150MtCO2e, which is over 4x Hong Kong’s annual emissions.

Meanwhile, the escalation in the Middle East with Ansar Allah which has disrupted trade in the Suez Canal is causing ships to be rerouted increasing travel time, costs and emissions – get on top of the impacts and numbers.

The US and UK have stated they “will not hesitate” to attack and are demanding an “immediate end” to the conflict. But where is this rhetoric for the battle against climate change? The 10-month long drought in the Panama Canal cut traffic by more than a third. Why doesn’t this matter as much? It can cost as much and add emissions too.

Eyes wide open to the death and destruction before us means we can “breathe fire” into more action so expect more around stress testing from companies, financial institutions and central banks.

Adding fuel to the “fire”, cracks in the ice kingdom are showing so brace yourself for more significant changes in the ice/ cryosphere. As ice is in the danger zone at 1.5°C, there’s a real chance in 2024 that we will awaken the mighty Ice Dragon – it’ll be an “aha” moment for us all to realise that ice-related impacts are coming to a neighbourhood near you.

From mountain glaciers to sea ice and ice sheets to permafrost, their melt/thaw is happening too fast & too soon which means seas will also rise sooner than expected; worse still, abrupt jumps in SLR may also be on the cards.

It’s important to remember here that once awakened, it will take an Ice Age to return this ice beast to slumber.

Only by taking decisive action to address the root cause i.e. GHG emissions, will we have a chance at preventing the catastrophic consequences – like 2-3m of sea level rise or the collapse of AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation). All of which will now happen much sooner than expected.

Passing tipping points is scary but they can also be catalysts for positive change; we innovate best when our backs are against the wall. Think renewable energy, EVs, plant-based diets and more.

Authors of the “Global Tipping Points Report 2023” Steven Smith, Caroline Zimm & Tim Lenton say we just need to intervene in our systems – technology, economic, political and social – to enable positive tipping points to be triggered. Check out the example of Norway’s rapid tipping of the EV market, which interestingly involved the lead singer of a-ha.

So leverage the special qualities of the Wood Dragon and take a flight through innovation. A rare combination of the Dragon’s power & luck and Wood’s creativity means there will be tailwinds for transition. But beware – don’t lie. Dragons favour the honourable so don’t greenwash or greenhush!

China, often symbolized by the dragon, recognises the critical importance of holistic water management in its pursuit of ecological civilisation.

The country’s transformation to mountains-to-oceans water governance started more than a decade ago and continues today with innovations leveraging AI and 5G. So, look to China for ideas and innovations to safeguard rivers so they can continue to ensure “vitality and prosperity”.

China is also further embracing responsible investment with fintech, green finance & inclusive finance identified as key priorities that will be driven by strengthening by regulators and banks’ finance-related products. Get on top of the latest ESG trends in China for 2024 with SynTao Green Finance.

As we stand at the head of the Year of the Dragon, at the precipice of the climate breakdown, we have been offered a chance to “save our planet” by “saving water”.

The Dragon heralds a rare era of transformation, innovation and drastic change … so set visionary goals and channel that dragon energy to get your brave on. Power up to slay emissions and leverage transformative resilience to protect your lair.

Soar high! Here’s to luck, good health, much fortune and an abundance of prosperity in the Year of the Dragon!