Power plays we never imagined

Power plays we never imagined – We never imagined typhoons to escalate so quickly or for seas to rise so much so soon. But it’s happening and our power systems are clearly not up to the challenge. So, this month we look at ways extreme weather causes blackouts, 8 things we never imagined that will cause “sooner & higher” sea level rise, and how this could cause North Asia to experience coastal blackouts sooner rather than later. Some good news is that more companies are disclosing transition plans.

Just last month, Typhoon Beryl left 2.7 million people in Texas without power. And this month, Super Typhoon Yagi ripped up wind turbines and caused power outages as it swept across Southern China and Southeast Asia. In Vietnam alone, damages north of US$1.6 billion is expected to lower the country’s annual GDP growth.

But it’s not just typhoons, we share 5 ways extreme weather can impact power; from obvious ways like scorching heat to less obvious ways like overheated waterways that can’t cool nuclear plants, which is happening in France right now. Get on top of these now before your power goes out!

Let’s not forget that chronic risks like sea level rise can also cause blackouts. Power assets almost equivalent to the national installed capacity of Indonesia are vulnerable to 1m of sea level rise (SLR), which may happen as early as 2050 if global emissions continue to rise.

For more on this, see our latest report, which found significant threats to power assets at province/prefecture levels in China, Japan and South Korea. At just 1m, 18% of Guangdong, 20% of Ibaraki prefecture & 10% of Gyeonggi-do province (which surrounds Seoul) are exposed.

Stress tests also found material exposure of clean energy portfolios to fast rising seas – this could stymie Japan & South Korea’s already laggard transition efforts. There are also clear EV adoption implications for all three countries. Such high levels of exposure demand a rethink of energy resilience and transition strategies. So, don’t delay build power resilience now!

But will seas really rise so fast? Our concerns over higher & sooner SLR have escalated following our participation in the gathering of international cryosphere (ice, snow, permafrost) scientists in Beijing this month.

Seas are rising so unimaginably fast that for the first time since the founding of CWR the urge to just give up is strong. CWR’s Tan shares 8 things she never imagined.

These never-imagined risks from our cryosphere will put at least 900 million people and trillions of dollars at risk. Asia is especially vulnerable, so this is a must-read.  Which IPCC scenario is Greenland ice sheet melt tracking? Has ocean heating reached a new paradigm? When will our ocean currents collapse? How fast is Antarctica melting? Find out now.

But it’s not all dark. Tan also shares 3 hopes to slow down fast rising seas – they are all related to China!

Other good news is that businesses disclosing climate transition plans jumped by 44% last year, with 1 in 4 companies (5,906) reporting to have a plan in place, according to CDP’s new report. More good news is that Asian companies are emerging as frontrunners.

However, significant disparities exist in the ‘credibility’ & ambition of these plans and only 2% of companies with a plan disclosed all 21 key indicators. Get more key findings, industry trends and what the road ahead looks like from CDP’s Dennis Wan, Head of Capital Markets APAC.

There is still time, but not much to slow down the pantheon of climate risks from typhoons to rising seas. We have 5 years left to make a difference, after which we will overshoot 1.5°C and lock-in ice melt that will lead to 12-20m of SLR.

Just when we need the world to come together to ensure water & energy security, political power play is making it even more fragmented. Right now, there is a higher likelihood of widespread war than meeting the 1.5°C target.

As there is no negotiating with the melting point of ice, we are literally rearranging deck chairs as the Titanic goes down. It’s high time we set aside our differences to focus on delivering rapid emission cuts or else things we never imagined will happen to us.