Post COP26 – Are we more or less water secure?

Post COP26 – Are we more or less water secure? A disappointing COP26 and “totally inadequate” 2030 targets means that we are heading to a 2.4°C temperature rise by the end of this century. A series of historic extreme weather events in Japan, China and Canada since the start of COP paint a stark contrast to the snail’s pace progress in Glasgow.

While we wish this was not true, we were not surprised. From failure to deliver on existing pledges to old pledges dressed up as new and declared as “landmark commitments”; countries (especially the developed ones) care more about looking good than delivering on their promises.

Hypocrisy was abound at COP26 and climate injustice was again ignored – why just rally to “end coal” but not oil & gas? Why blame 2.8bn people in China and India for not doing enough while allowing 775mn people in the G7 to continue their high consumption lifestyle? If the richest 1% will have per capita consumption emissions 30x higher than that compatible with the 1.5°C goal in 2030, should the rich not bear more responsibilities?

We in Asia feel miffed and Ronald made a list – check out 8 Empty Promises & Hypocrisies we need to move passed for a 2°C world. Asia, we need to step up and lead in both decarbonisation and adaptation – we need to deliver real action, not just the current “NATO” (no action, talk only).

And we need to do this fast because behind the noise and fanfare of announcing new promises and pledges, actual policies and action will deliver a dire 2.7°C. At these levels of warming, we would lose large chunks of our mountain glaciers, a big worry for the 1 in 2 Asians that rely on water from rivers that flow from the Himalayas. Also global weather as we know it will severely and drastically change due to a shutdown of the AMOC, the driver of ocean currents in the Atlantic if temperatures near 3°C.

A sluggish COP26 means that these ice tipping points are fast approaching. This means that understanding the science and fast-tracking adaptation are becoming more important than ever.

These are not just our words – reviewed and supported by nearly 50 leading cryosphere scientists, whom over half are IPCC authors, the State of the Cryosphere 2021 painted a grim picture with multi-meter sea-level-rise (SLR) in the horizon. Check out our review to see what tipping points we have already triggered in SLR, mountain glaciers, permafrost, Arctic sea ice and polar oceans.

So are we more or less water secure post COP26? Find out why COP26 was bad news for water security with CWR’s Tan as she reflects on frank conversations had by ministers & water leaders at a high-level water security forum on the eve of COP26 in Glasgow. See what risks top her water to-do list post COP.

The signalling of a dire future for water makes the NatureSpringer book “Water Security Under Climate Change” launched at the high level forum even more pertinent – so check it out – especially if you want to know how to use waternomics to develop and avoid systemic shocks to the economy!

A hard dose of honesty is what’s needed post COP26. As Asit Biswas remarked, a prominent minister once said to him “we know exactly what to do, but we do not know is how to do them and still get elected.” So besides walking you through locking in 10-20m of SLR to a widening of water extremes, Tan also mulls whether we can progress when we hold onto the past. Can we stomach short term pain for long term gains? Do we have the will?

Fast-advancing water risks mean we must ramp up adaptation efforts now. Fortunately, some countries are already leading ahead so we don’t need to start from scratch. Dr de Heer, Dr Minkman and van Alphen share how the Netherlands & Bangladesh, two delta cities, have both adopted a long-term and risk-based water governance framework to implement flexible and adaptive strategies to deal with long term uncertainties.

Another resource we can use is the Sea’ties Map of Solutions that features over 70 coastal threat adaptation solutions across the world. Théophile Bongarts who manages the Sea’ties initiative expands on what the Map of Solutions wants to achieve and plans in the future. Plus our CWR Coastal Capital Threat Series has also been included as the only solution from Hong Kong – so check our 5-reports series here!

But it’s not just rising seas we have to worry about, livelihoods will also be affected. A recent report by the University of British Columbia in collaboration with ADMCF tells a cautionary tale on the future of fisheries in the East and South China Seas – in a severe climate change scenario, upwards of USD10bn in revenues of fisheries could be lost annually in the South China Sea alone. Find out more about the impact of climate change and overfishing on fishstocks in a succinct summary from ADMCF’s CEO Sophie le Clue.

We are clearly cutting it fine and playing with fire. Adapting our lifestyles and racing to resilience can provide relief but even with so much at risk in Hong Kong, we have yet to draw up a serious adaptation plan. So it’s good to hear that resilience and adaptation will be at the core of COP27 in Egypt.

In the meantime, a long hard look at our contradictions is long overdue. Like this Honest Government Ad urged … it’s time to look at our failings so we can stop failing because we cannot afford to “carry out an experiment with the only planet we have”.

An ever-shrinking timeline means that passing the buck and transferring the risk to the next gen is not going to work anymore. We are both the hero and baddie; we just need the hero in us to surface right now. COP 26 has upped the challenges to ensure water security – our only failure now is the failure to act. Go off-piste if you have to!

P.S. Check out the very cool and innovative “Five Tiny Dances” performed by the HK Ballet at M+ as part of our collaboration with the ballet on “Beyond Carbon: The Climate Change Project”.