Please save HK from rising seas!

Please save HK from rising seas! 
Begging is not something we usually do at CWR, but this month we implore the powers that be in Hong Kong to heed President Xi’s advice and save our low-lying world city from rising seas.

As you can see from our 8 New Factsheets, the situation is dire – we are way behind New York and Singapore on adaptation efforts – their adaptation planning levels for rising seas are 4-6x of HK’s. This makes us ‘hangry’ as the poor will suffer more plus we could also lose access to basic needs such as food if links to the Mainland are flooded. It’s time HK steps up to build resilience with the GBA. How? Read on …

First off, the powers that be from the government to boardrooms of conglomerates and banks should all follow Xi’s advice given during the 25th Anniversary. In case you missed it, he wants HK to have an “international vision in order to make better development plans for the region from an overall and long term perspective”. There’s nothing more urgent and long term than climate change; all of us are reeling from its impacts around the world and as bad as it is, the worst is yet to come.

Rising seas could sink HK, but HK can also lean into these threats as transformative adaptation can lead new growth. This also dovetails with China’s National Climate Adaptation Strategy 2035 as well as the 14FYP on Water Security, which is what Xi expressed in his 4 hopes for HK – active dovetailing into national policies while creating strong impetus for growth.

The Northern Metropolis can be a grand pilot to develop a futureproof coastal hub and if successful, why not export this as part of the BRI to other vulnerable coastal cities across APAC and beyond?

So Dear John Lee, please heed President’s Xi’s “4 hopes for HK” as they can guide the way to adapt and futureproof HK so that it will “rise and shine brighter than ever”.

It is imperative to set up a dedicated Coastal Defence Task Force to prioritise adaptation as banks could also collapse from concentrated exposure to residential, commercial and industrial properties. The risks are high as HK is currently way behind New York and Singapore on adaptation efforts – their adaptation planning levels for rising seas are 2-3m whereas HK’s is less than a metre. Over 43,000 more residential, commercial and industrial buildings will be underwater if we adapt to the wrong levels of sea level rise (SLR).

With up to 82% of the HKSAR’s government revenues exposed to rising seas, we need to urgently close these adaptation gaps – from inconsistencies across government departments to ignoring the IPCC’s recommendations on multiple fronts. Selecting the wrong scenarios and timelines for adaptation will only lead to maladaptation and increase financial risks for HK.

Already, the HKMA’s stress test shows ~HK$1trn of mortgages/ loans at risk at around 0.5m of SLR by 2050; clearly more would be at risk at the 2-3m that New York and Singapore are defending against by 2100. A dedicated Coastal Defence Task Force must clearly be set up to close these gaps and safeguard HK from climate threats ahead. This improved new governance is exactly what Xi wants.

So why are we not taking rising seas seriously? With more than 200+ islands, HK is more like Fiji than not. So why isn’t HK rallying with other islands around the world on the urgent need for adaptation or leading the charge on adaptation finance?

2 dangerous myths are holding us back – we debunk these in “HK Stranded! – ‘Asia’s World Low-lying City”. If we are not careful, we could be swimming from island-to-island when parts of HK’s well-connected transport system are underwater. Check out how many of HK’s MTR entrances and ferry terminals will be affected here. You might think you are safe on the Peak/Mid-levels but what will you do when HK Island is stranded?

Ultimately, we are heading toward a grand re-design of HK as Asia’s coastlines will be reshaped by rising seas. Transformative adaptation, as recommended by the IPCC, is the way forward but this could be hard to deliver due to vested interests. Again, we defer to President Xi who supports HK to take “active yet prudent steps” to “dismantle the barriers of vested interests and unlock enormous creativity and development potential”.

HK needs to be courageous and pragmatic. With a 50/50 chance of breaching 1.5°C by 2026, we can no longer select low and low-medium emissions scenarios to plan adaptation. We must be realistic and use the current global policy path, which is high emissions to plan adaptation – because only then can the government have “low-regret”.

If the powers that be get this wrong, the poor will suffer a triple whammy hit. This will only further widen the already gaping income chasm between the haves and have-nots in the SAR. A lion’s share – 95% of residents vulnerable to rising seas are from low & middle-income households. And at any one time, around a quarter of properties listed for sale are vulnerable to coastal threats; worse still, cheaper housing is more prone.

Surely letting HKers invest all their hard-earned savings into properties that will be permanently submerged in the future is climate injustice itself? Where are public ‘buyer beware’ warnings like in the UK and New York?

Besides well-managed income gaps, another key ingredient for stability is ensuring a constant supply of food and other basic needs. Yet this could be disrupted as the youngest member of our team, Sophie Lam, found as she went grocery shopping … she balked at the food miles on the shelves and got “hangry” over HK food insecurity from climate threats ahead. Incensed, she lays out 3 ideas for a new food security vision for HK and calls for working together with the GBA to build HK resilience.

Never would Lam have thought that she would give up her job offer in London and move back to HK, but she did. She shares her revelations and mindset shift – from her shock on finding out about HK’s reliance on the GBA for its basic needs to “not running away” and her transformation into a “climate patriot”.

The truth is: HK cannot be resilient without the GBA. It’s time to acknowledge this; as Xi prompted “we need a new outlook on the motherland”.  Like Lam, we are depressed and excited at the same time over our changing climate. Seas are rising and so must we.

So, powers that be … we implore you to be realistic & pragmatic by following the latest science so that we can defend our low-lying city. We also beg you to maintain stability and harmony by putting people first by protecting HKers with “low-regret” and not “just-in-time/wait-and-see” adaptation plans.

We must have the courage to face our future in a changing climate. There is no running away from hard facts; if a 22 year old can see these risks and opportunities ahead, then so can John Lee and the rest of the powers that be who run HK. Like Lam says, if you all “truly care about HK, then building a safe and stable HK that will survive coastal threats is the only way forward”.