High Hopes for Rapid Deep Cuts

High Hopes for Rapid Deep Cuts: The third & final report of the IPCC Report (AR6 WG3) calls for rapid deep cuts from everyone and every sector – especially fossil fuels. So, this month we unpack the report to find that we have high hopes for the US (not Saudi Arabia) to lead cuts in oil & gas. And see why China’s 1+N Plan, path to peak emissions, carbon markets, plus Top 10 trends in sustainable investment and CSR actions, left us feeling optimistic on coal cuts. Finally, because we cannot get to 1.5ºC without CO2 removal (CDR), while carbon capture in oil has so far been disappointing, we harbour high hopes for seaweed.

There are multiple ways to get to 1.5ºC but only one way gives us the best chance for an adaptable future – we must do the hard work NOW and push for rapid deep cuts to get to 1.5ºC with little or no overshoot. We cannot proceed on our current 3ºC policy path and bet our future on CDR tech that we have yet to perfect to suck up emissions on a massive scale. “Green” Canada spent US$5.8bn in subsidies for carbon capture and storage tech but only managed to capture 0.05% of the nations’ GHG emissions – shocking.

Seaweed is another promising option. Touted as a climate-friendly food source and feed for livestock, it could be an untapped option for carbon capture. As Megan Howell, Editor at Fish Site/5m says, all indications show that seaweed is good at carbon capture. However, there is uncertainty on the extent and around permanent sequestration; Howell expands and shares how the industry is underexplored & underfinanced.

But as warned by the previous IPCC issue, such nature-based solutions become less effective as we breach 1.5ºC as our ecosystems reach their hard limits in adaptation. Indeed, the AR6 WG2 has made it very clear that overshooting 1.5ºC is a big no-no as it will lock-in a swathe of dire threats.

This leaves us desperately seeking rapid emission cuts and the science in the 2,913-page IPCC tome relating climate change to the supply of fossil fuels as well as its derivative sectors (cement, steel, petrochems & plastics) is sobering. There is no doubt that oil & gas must do their fair share of heavy lifting – ending coal (which we won’t) only tackles 44% of CO2 emissions; the bigger share of energy emissions is from oil & gas.

The tentacles of fossil fuels stretch far beyond energy and industry derivatives, oil & gas also drives transport emissions and the sector gets a free pass with international aviation and shipping. No wonder push back from Big Oil delayed the release of AR6 WG3 plus the Summary for Policymakers is “less punchy” than the actual full report.

Yet we remain hopeful. While, Saudi Arabia is often framed as the “Bad Guy”, it is actually the US that is the largest producer of oil globally – 17% global share compared to Saudi Arabia’s 12%. The US also has a clear lead on global gas production with almost a quarter of the world’s gas supply.

As the #1 producer of oil & gas, we have high hopes for the US to lead us out of this hot mess – there is no reason why it cannot – it has the money, the most advanced tech in the world, plus politically it is already leading the global call to action. Now it just needs to walk the talk … since the Paris Agreement, 12 banks from the US & Canada lent US$2.2trn to the fossil fuel industry while 13 Mainland Chinese banks lent only a third of that.

This brings us to China… as the largest GHG emitter it has an important role to play. To this end, it has published an ambitious 1+N Policy Framework to help it achieve its “Dual-Carbon Goals”. China is at the start of its new 100-year phase of development. Massive transformation is afoot – it aims to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 plus it has a mother-of-all-plans for adapting to ensure future water security.

Is this possible? We sat down with Dr Zhanfeng Dong from the Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning who shares his view on China’s path to peak emissions. Which provinces are ahead? Which are behind? He walks us through the best & worst performing provinces.

Also see what he has to say about China’s carbon markets. How will they work? How did the Ministry of Ecology and Environment’s pilots last year go? What are the next steps for the local & national markets?

Indeed, 1+N will have wider implications for finance and business in China. But what is trending now? See SynTao’s Top 10 Responsible Investment & Top 10 CSR trends in China for 2022.

Don’t miss out on the opportunities as finance and companies look to incorporate climate more, grow ESG & green products and set net zero targets. But there are also risks and rebalancing with common prosperity and shifting insurance.

This search for common prosperity is echoed in the IPCC reports which seek to address climate injustice. The third report does not disappoint – it clearly states that it’s the rich’s fault – they emit more and must make deeper cuts. The stats remind us that the US, Canada, Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Japan, having got rich off empire building and eating up 43% of cumulative emissions since 1850, must step up to deliver climate justice to the developing world and small island states. Otherwise, it is just empty promises.

Surely the G20’s oil & gas subsidies of US$500bn+ in 2019 would be better spent on closing climate adaptation finance gaps and aggressive renewable expansion?

But we don’t have to wait for governments, finance, fossil fuels and other industries to move, we as individuals can take action now. The AR6 WG3 highlights for the first time ever people power in driving demand-side emission cuts.   The IPCC doesn’t provide a to-do list of actions, but we have you covered – check out simple habit tweaks that can make a big difference in our recent report aptly titled “Together We Can”.

To not overshoot 1.5ºC we need to deliver a 43% cut in GHG emissions from 2019 levels by 2030. This works out to roughly 3GtCO2 per year for the next 8 years. Can we do this? Yes we can – COVID delivered 2.3GtCO2 of cuts but no one wants 8 years of COVID lifestyle! There is another way forward … our report shows 2GtCO2 of cuts are possible with habit tweaks over 8 areas. And that’s if only some of us made the change, imagine if all of us did more! High hopes indeed.

There are no more excuses, we are counting on “us” and the US. Even if China gets there with coal, we cannot get to 1.5ºC without America and changing our lifestyles. We must wean ourselves off fossil fuels and we must effect urgent transformative adaptation. We must embark on this massive change exercise now and we must not fail.