Heroes Wanted: Don’t “Cop” Out, Opt In

Heroes Wanted: Don’t “Cop” Out, Opt In – Media coverage of COP30 in Belém has been relatively quiet despite a grim climate outlook. So this month, in case you’ve not been following, check out our 5 thoughts on the progress & roadblocks as well as unwilling & unlikely heroes at COP30.

Despite the significant challenges ahead, we also celebrate unsung heroes who are fighting to spotlight massive “hidden” emissions generated from global military activities as well as AI-driven fossil fuel expansion. Let’s also not forget the fight for justice at the international courts – they are putting pressure on states to act on climate and we explore what the ICJ’s climate ruling means for the private sector.

At COP30, the narrative was no longer “keeping 1.5°C alive”. Now, it’s all about “managing overshoot”. Brazil’s President Lula da Silva set the scene at the opening in Belém. “COP30 will be the COP of truth,” he said, where we recognise that “climate change is no longer a threat of the future. It is a tragedy of the present.” Indeed, adaptation was front and centre at COP30. Indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation were finally agreed on, though they are far from perfect.

The state of the climate is grim. Scientists in Brazil warned that it is “virtually impossible” to stay within the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This means that all types of water risks will escalate – we’ve covered these in our past newsletters on Erratic Rivers & Rains, Breakdown of Planetary Systems,  Extreme Events, and Ice Cold Truths from our Cryosphere.

But when all hope is lost, heroes turn up. At COP30, we found glimmers of hope as Global South leaders rose to the challenge.

China emerges as the unwilling hero as the focus shifts from pledges to implementation. With a new commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 7-10% from peak levels by 2035, experts estimate that the peak will likely happen in 2028 ahead of their 2030 goal.

In absolute terms this is 1GtCO2e, more than double of what the EU pledged! Check out how else China is leading the energy transition.

Negotiations centred on the “Baku to Belém Roadmap to US$1.3trn” – at COP29 in Baku last year, a new climate finance goal was set to deliver US$300 billion annually by 2035, with an ambitious aspiration to scale this to US$1.3 trillion per year by 2035. Private finance – it’s time to step up here.

While the funding gap remains significant, it is nothing compared to what is spent globally on military & war. Reaching a record-high of US$2.7trn in 2024, military spending is expected to grow to US$6.6trn in the next decade. If only these funds were diverted towards fighting climate change instead of wars…

Ahead of COP30, President Lula warned that “the conflict in Ukraine has reversed years of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and led to the reopening of coal mines.”

He went on to say that “spending twice as much on weapons as we do on climate action is paving the way for climate apocalypse.”

Military emissions can no longer be ignored. The Conflict and Environment Observatory estimates that global military activities produce 5.5% of global GHG emissions. This is equivalent to the combined global GHG emissions shares of international aviation (2.5%) and international shipping (3%)! Yet reporting military emissions is entirely voluntary.

Worse still, the estimate does not include emissions from warfighting and post-conflict reconstruction. For example, rebuilding the Gaza Strip could be greater than the annual emissions of Portugal or Sweden – read what researchers Dr. Abolfathi & Kinney found on the war on climate.

Another “hidden” emissions source comes from AI use – not their datacentre emissions; that’s peanuts compared to how oil & gas companies are using AI to accelerate their exploration process, unlocking new reserves that may result in emissions that outweigh all potential carbon savings the technology can offer in energy efficiency enhancements.

Check out our interview with Holly Alpine, co-founder of the Enabled Emissions Campaign, who is raising awareness of this blind spot.

Previously she worked at Microsoft, where she found that even as the tech company pledged to be carbon negative by 2030, it was contributing to higher global emissions by building AI tools for the fossil fuel industry…

Even at COP30, fossil fuel lobbyists were abound – they were 1 in every 25 attendees at COP30! Since COP28 in Dubai where a global commitment to “transition away from fossil fuels” was made, petrostates like Saudi Arabia have tried to stifle this discussion.

In spite of this, more than 80 countries from the north and south have demanded for a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. While this didn’t make it into the final text, Brazil will spearhead efforts to present the roadmap at COP31 next year.

Regardless, there is hope in the International Court of Justice’s ruling earlier this year, which decided that climate action is a legal duty for all countries. Failing to control emissions could result in an “internationally wrongful act” – not just for governments but also for companies. See Van Asselt on what that means for the private sector.

So, despite the US absence at COP30, it’s clear that there are coalescing efforts among other states, courts, civil society and activists to push the energy transition forward.

We may have missed the 1.5°C target but it’s never too late to get back on track. We need to start now especially since the safe temperature limit for ice is at 1°C. In the spirit of the implementation COP, we need to turn pledges into action. We need to make peace, not war and we need to ensure the transition is just.

Climate science, the business case and social imperatives are converging. Step up and be the hero we need to make climate progress possible in this era of backsliding.