Impacts of Super El Niño from Lives to the Economy with Prof. Benjamin Horton
By Benjamin Horton 20 August, 2026
A Super El Niño is brewing. Top earth scientist Prof. Horton unpacks health impacts for major Asian economies like Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan & how to plan ahead for resilience
Read more from Benjamin Horton →
This summer’s soaring temperatures and heavy rain bursts are being linked to the upcoming Super El Niño. What exactly is this weather phenomenon, and does it have long-term implications? We talk to leading earth scientist Professor Benjamin Horton – who is heading up the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development – about his latest Nature paper on how El Niño events in the past reshaped health and economic outcomes across the Pacific Rim countries, including US, Canada, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia.
Prof. Horton is currently the Dean of the School of Energy & Environment at City University of Hong Kong. Previously, he served as a review editor for the IPCC AR6 and was the Director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore and a Professor in Earth Science in Nanyang Technological University.
CWR: Thanks so much for speaking with us, Prof. Horton. First, in “plain speak” can you quickly explain what Super El Niño is – how does it compare to a regular El Niño?
Prof. Benjamin Horton (BH): El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm. These warmer ocean temperatures alter weather patterns around the world, affecting rainfall, temperature, droughts, floods, and storms.
A Super El Niño can trigger extreme heatwaves, widespread coral bleaching & crop failures
A Super El Niño is simply an exceptionally strong El Niño event. Think of it as El Niño on steroids. While a regular El Niño may slightly increase global temperatures and disrupt weather patterns, a Super El Niño can trigger much more severe consequences, including extreme heatwaves, intense rainfall in some regions, prolonged droughts in others, widespread coral bleaching, crop failures, and increased wildfire risks.
Only a handful of Super El Niño events have been recorded in recent history, including those in 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16. These events had significant social, economic, and environmental impacts across the Pacific and beyond.
CWR: When will be the worst of El Niño and why should people in APAC cities and countries like Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and Japan be concerned?
BH: The current forecasts suggest El Niño will strengthen through the second half of 2026 and is most likely to peak during late 2026, roughly between October and December.
People across the Asia-Pacific region should be concerned because El Niño shifts rainfall, temperature and storm patterns across the Pacific. For cities such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and parts of Japan, the biggest risks are not identical, but they all face a higher likelihood of climate extremes.
SE Asia can expect hotter & drier conditions…
In Southeast Asia, including Singapore, El Niño often brings hotter and drier conditions, increasing heat stress, drought risk, water-management challenges and wildfire smoke from regional peat and forest fires. Hong Kong and Taiwan can also experience unusually warm conditions and disruptions to normal rainfall patterns.
East Asia may see more extreme temps & storms…
For Japan and other parts of East Asia, El Niño can alter seasonal weather patterns and affect the tracks and intensity of storms, while increasing the likelihood of temperature extremes. The exact local impacts vary, but the broader message is that El Niño loads the dice toward more unusual and extreme weather.
What makes this especially important today is that El Niño is now occurring in a warmer world. Human-caused climate change raises baseline temperatures, so when a strong El Niño develops, the combined effect can lead to record-breaking heat, heavier rainfall events in some locations, and greater stress on infrastructure, public health and ecosystems.
CWR: Can you share key takeaways from your Nature paper on its impacts?
BH: One of the key findings of our Nature paper is that El Niño affects far more than weather. We found that strong El Niño events can have long-lasting impacts on human health, slowing improvements in mortality for up to 16 years after the event itself has ended. By analysing six decades of data across ten Pacific Rim countries, we showed that the major El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 reduced life expectancy by about half a year and four months respectively, while causing trillions of dollars in economic losses.
People under 30 are most exposed to El Niño health risks…
…life expectancy could drop by ~3 years by 2100 if society does not adapt
The most vulnerable group is people under 30, who are more exposed to the long-term consequences of extreme heat, air pollution, disease risk and disruptions to economic development. We also found that future intensification of El Niño under climate change could lead to a cumulative reduction in life expectancy of almost three years by the end of this century if society does not adapt.
For Hong Kong specifically, the impacts are close to the average across the Pacific Rim. We estimate that the 1982-83 El Niño reduced life expectancy by about 0.6 years and the 1997-98 event by about 0.4 years, while generating economic losses of roughly US$15 billion and US$58 billion respectively.
CWR: So does this mean our lifespans are going to be cut short by this El Niño?
BH: It is important not to interpret our findings as meaning that every individual will lose months or years from their life because of a single El Niño event. Life expectancy is a population-wide statistic. What our research shows is that strong El Niño events increase health risks across society and slow progress in reducing mortality, particularly through heat stress, air pollution and other environmental impacts.
El Niño is predictable months in advance so impacts can be avoided…
…through heat-heath action plans, early warning systems etc.
If the current El Niño becomes very strong, it could contribute to adverse health outcomes and reduce average life expectancy at the population level, as previous major El Niño events did. However, these impacts are not inevitable. El Niño is predictable months in advance, and measures such as heat-health action plans, early-warning systems, resilient healthcare systems and protection for vulnerable populations can significantly reduce the risks.
The broader message of the paper is not that El Niño will suddenly shorten everyone’s life, but that climate variability has important and measurable consequences for human health that persist long after the weather event is over. Recognising those risks allows governments and communities to prepare and protect lives.
CWR: The Super El Niño expected to hit in Oct/Nov coincides with COP31 in Turkey. Do you think policymakers are ready for this?
BH: Policymakers today are certainly more aware of El Niño than they were twenty or thirty years ago. Forecasting capabilities have improved considerably, giving governments more time to prepare for potential impacts.
Many countries are only responding to disasters & not proactively reducing risks before they occur
However, awareness does not always translate into action. Many countries remain focused on responding to disasters rather than proactively reducing risks before they occur. The challenge is that policymakers are dealing with multiple overlapping issues – climate change, economic pressures, energy security, food security, and geopolitical tensions.
If a strong El Niño unfolds during COP31, it could serve as a powerful reminder that climate risks are not distant future concerns; they are already affecting communities around the world. It would underscore the importance of strengthening adaptation measures, improving early warning systems, and increasing investment in resilience.
COP31 risks appearing disconnected from the realities people are facing
COP31 will need to be flexible enough to respond to events as they unfold. If a Super El Niño develops with the severe impacts many scientists are concerned about, delegates must have the bandwidth to pivot discussions toward the immediate humanitarian, economic, and environmental consequences. If negotiators remain focused solely on pre-planned agendas while communities across the Pacific are experiencing devastating heatwaves, floods, droughts, crop losses, or health crises, there is a risk that the conference could appear disconnected from the realities people are facing.
In many ways, a Super El Niño would be a real-time demonstration of the vulnerability of societies to climate extremes. COP31 should be prepared to incorporate those lessons into the negotiations and use the event to accelerate action on adaptation, resilience, and climate risk management.
CWR: Many people say that Super El Niño’s weather later this year will be the norm in the future. What can we expect an El Niño to look like in say 2050?
BH: Climate change and El Niño are distinct phenomena, but they interact in important ways. El Niño is a natural source of climate variability, while climate change is caused primarily by human activities. What worries scientists is that El Niño events are now occurring on top of a much warmer climate baseline.
By 2050, even if El Niño behaves similarly to today, its impacts will be amplified
By 2050, even if El Niño behaves similarly to today, its impacts will be amplified. Heatwaves will be hotter, droughts more severe, rainfall extremes more intense, and coastal flooding worse because of rising sea levels. In effect, future El Niño events will push communities beyond thresholds they have historically experienced.
CWR: How can governments better prepare for this future? What actions can the private sector take to build resilience against impacts?
BH: Governments should focus on three priorities. First, invest in science to strengthen climate monitoring and early warning systems so communities can prepare in advance. Second, build resilient infrastructure that can withstand hotter temperatures, heavier rainfall, and longer droughts. Third, integrate climate risk into planning for water resources, public health, food systems, and coastal development.
The private sector also has a major role to play. Businesses should assess climate risks throughout their supply chains, invest in resilience measures, diversify critical suppliers, and adopt climate-informed planning. Financial institutions can help direct capital toward adaptation projects, while technology companies can improve forecasting and risk management tools.
Universities, governments, and the private sector must work to become resilient. The most resilient societies will be those that anticipate risks rather than simply react to disasters after they occur.
CWR: Lastly, any tips to stay safe and healthy for this Super El Niño?
BH: I am sad to write this, but the most important thing is to recognise that extreme weather is now a common part of life.
Extreme weather is now a common part of life…
Stay informed & hydrated!
People should stay informed by following official forecasts and warnings from meteorological agencies such as the excellent Hong Kong Observatory. During periods of extreme heat, stay hydrated, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest parts of the day, and check on elderly relatives, neighbours, and vulnerable community members. If air quality deteriorates due to wildfires or pollution, limit outdoor exposure and follow public health guidance.
Communities should also prepare for disruptions caused by floods, storms, or droughts. Having emergency supplies, backup power options where possible, and a family communication plan can make a significant difference during extreme events.
Ultimately, resilience starts at the individual level but extends to communities, cities, and nations. El Niño is a reminder that we live in a dynamic climate system. The better we understand and prepare for these events, the better we can protect lives, livelihoods, and economies.
Further readings
- Rising Health Risks: 4 Reasons Why We Must Pay Attention to Sinking Pacific Islands – Sea level rise is a public health crisis that can spread dengue, typhoid, even snake bites. CWR’s Chan explains how saltwater intrusion & flooding is already affecting health & wellbeing in Asia Pacific
- The Future of Predicting Black Rain with Prof. Fei Chen – Intense rainstorms are forming quicker than ever as the planet warms & climate modellers are innovating to catch up. Leading in the field is HKUST’s Prof. Chen, who shares the future directions in weather intelligence
- COP30: Shifting from Off Target to On Target? – Did this “implementation COP” turn ambition into action? Even though 1.5°C is now out of reach, CWR’s Chan & Tan find 5 glimmers of hope in Belém to get back on target
More on Latest
- Super El Niño – Stay Ahead with IWMI’s New ENSO Outlook Tool – Overwhelming climate data point to a Super El Niño but what can farmers, insurers or government ministers do to prepare? IWMI’s Amaranth introduces a first-of-its-kind tool that translates forecasts into anticipatory action
- 5 Takeaways from SIWW2026 – Coastal threats are on global leaders’ minds this year. Which cities are ready for their future coastline? CWR unpacks key water topics from urban planning for climate overshoot to AI & water
- From Brown to Green – but Only if the City can Cope – Resilience at an asset level isn’t enough anymore. Investment strategist Currimbhoy shows how cities can leverage adaptation to improve investor confidence
