A Conversation with Dr. James Kirkham, Ambition on Melting Ice Chief Science Advisor & Coordinator

A Conversation with Dr. James Kirkham, Ambition on Melting Ice Chief Science Advisor & Coordinator

By James Kirkham 25 November, 2024

We sat down with Dr. Kirkham, Ambition on Melting Ice Chief Science Advisor & Coordinator at COP29 to find out more from their latest report, insider discussions at COP29 & how to mobilise meaningful action to slow down ice loss

The International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) recently published its annual update – State of the Cryosphere Report 2024 – Lost Ice, Global Damage – in time for COP29 in Baku. To find out more about the report’s sobering key findings, insider discussions at COP29 on ice, and how to mobilise meaningful action in the short time we have left to meaningly slow down ice loss, we chat to Dr. James Kirkham, Ambition on Melting Ice Chief Science Advisor & Coordinator, and one of the chapter editors on ice sheets & sea level rise in the report.

CWR: Congratulations on publishing the new report. The title is quite sobering, especially with the observed ice losses. There seems to be a growing consensus that this could result in higher and sooner sea level rise. With Asia being particularly vulnerable, could you highlight some of the key findings we should be paying attention to in this context?

Dr. James Kirkham (JK): One of the key findings this year is that the rate of sea-level rise has doubled in the last 30 years. It has accelerated from 2.1 millimetres per year in 1993 to 4.5 millimetres per year in 2023. And under that trajectory, 6.5 millimetres per year will be reached by 2050. This has massive implications for the viability of nature-based solutions because science shows that 7 millimetres per year is a threshold, above which it will be very difficult for natural ecosystems like mangroves, salt marshes and these sorts of ecosystems, to keep up with the rate that the water is rising.

Cryosphere loss is already causing a growing array of problems today & even more terrible impacts to come…

…SLR has doubled in last 30 years & could reach 6.5mm/yr by 2050 = can strand investments

This has major implications for investments in nature-based adaptation solutions along coastlines in Asia, as these investments could become effectively stranded if the pace of sea-level rise becomes too fast. Large ensembles of multiple ice sheet models have also confirmed that under higher emissions, the rate of ice loss from Antarctica will begin to skyrocket shortly after 2100, which supports the IPCC’s higher-end scenarios of multi-metre sea level rise that could play out over multiple centuries under a high emissions future. And of course, Asia has huge swathes of coastlines which are far below that potential future water level.

The report also stresses that the impacts of cryosphere loss are already causing a growing array of problems today in many parts of the world such as coastal erosion, salinity intrusion into agricultural lands and the degradation of freshwater quality in coastal areas. In many parts of the world, just an additional 10 centimetres of sea-level rise will cause coastal flooding to become 10 times more frequent, and even this modest amount of sea-level rise will be enormously costly to defend against and adapt to. This will have terrible impacts on lives and livelihoods globally, but especially on those that are least able to adapt and cope with the rising water.

CWR: What about impacts on glaciers and snow on our current emissions path – can you share some key findings for Asia’s Himalayan Water Towers?

Dr. JK: Yes, the Himalayan Water Towers are melting and they’re melting increasingly rapidly. Unfortunately, by the end of the century, we’re still looking (even under low emissions) to lose at least 30% of the ice. But this could be much worse under current policies, which will see 50-75% of the ice in the Himalayas being lost by 2100. In the long term, looking beyond 2100, these glaciers will continue to melt more and more, apart from under a 1.5°C pathway, where losses would stabilise to provide long-term water security for the region.

Under current policies 50-75% of Himalayas’ ice could be lost by 2100…

…risks of lake outbursts could x3 by 2100 & their floods will peak in the next 30 yrs

We also expect more frequent hazards from glaciers to occur in this region, such as outbursts flooding from lakes that are growing as more ice melts. The risk of lake outbursts is expected to triple by the end of the century, and risks related to these floods will peak in the next thirty years. We’ve seen multiple examples of these terrible events rip through communities just this year, such as in Thame, Nepal, back in August for example.

CWR: Despite global climate pledges, ice loss continues at an alarming rate. Why do you think this is happening, and what are the positive and negative outcomes of COP29 discussions on the cryosphere?

Dr. JK: There’s a couple of reasons. The number one reason is because we keep pumping massive amounts of fossil fuel pollution into the atmosphere, which then causes temperatures to rise and ice to melt. The second is that warming is amplified in the polar regions, with the Arctic warming at four times faster than the rest of the world and Antarctica and the Hindu Kush Himalaya warming at about twice the global rate. This means that we are seeing climate change on steroids in both the Arctic and the Antarctic as well as the high mountains.

Alarming loss rate due to 1) fossil fuel pollution + 2) amplified warming in regions – Artic 4x, HKH 2x

Some countries are losing all of their glaciers already; a prominent example this year was Venezuela, which became the second country in modern history to lose its final glacier. Other countries will soon experience this grim reality as well, with the likely next candidates being Germany, many of the high-altitude African glaciers, as well as Indonesia, which will lose the last tropical Asian glacier in probably within the next two to five years.

Seen an uptick in cryosphere discussions at COP29 & gaining traction at political level….

…but still need more & urgently

The discussion on the cryosphere at COP29 has been quite interesting. We’ve seen a real uptick this year in how frequently the cryosphere is being discussed by leaders at a very high level. The President of Azerbaijan even mentioned how snow is melting at the mountains here and is challenging Azerbaijan’s adaptation efforts, and there have been abundant mentions of the damage caused by sea-level rise during ministerial level discussions. The impacts of cryosphere loss are already becoming visible enough to be gaining traction at the political level. However, there’s still a lot more we need to do in communicating the urgency of action to decelerate impacts from the cryosphere and make sure that countries are able to adapt to the ice loss that is already locked in for the future.

CWR: There is only 5 years left to meaningfully slow down ice melt yet accelerating “ice risks” are not fully understood by business, finance, and most governments.  In your view, how can we bridge this gap?

Dr. JK: I think we need to do more work as a scientific community to put some numbers on the damage caused by ice loss globally. Now this is obviously a really hard problem because what tends to happen when you do this is that the numbers become so big with such high uncertainties that it doesn’t really mean anything useful to anyone, apart from just being a massive number. However, I think that it would still be really useful to quantify the enormous value that preserving the cryosphere has on planetary stability today, as well as the economic damage that will result globally if we fail to protect the world’s frozen regions in the years to come.

We need to more on quantifying & attributing the damage caused by ice loss globally…

…e.g. SLR already experienced to date at just 1.3°C of warming added US$8bn to the damage bill of Hurricane Sandy

We also need to get better at quickly attributing and quantifying the cost that cryosphere-related impacts like sea-level rise are already having at just 1.3°C of warming. For example, the sea-level rise we’ve already experienced added US$8 billion onto the bill of damage from the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy in the US, but this finding came out nearly ten years after this disaster happened. We need more stats like this, generated rapidly yet still accurately, because it is the impacts of these individual extreme events that really stick in the minds of policymakers and businesses after they happen, compared to risks of much larger damage in the future, but decades to hundreds of years down the line.

However, we also need to shift the dialogue in order to better value and appreciate the long-term risks and costs associated with political inaction. A collaboration with CWR would be really useful in this space because businesses have a massive role to play in the energy transition. They can provide an example of the courage and leadership needed to shift the dial on the green transition for politicians and countries to follow, and can communicate how this will also have massive co-benefits for employment, cleaner air, cleaner water, and a plethora of others that are too numerous to list here. We need to promote a positive vision for humanity in response to climate change; one where we can grow together in a more equal, equitable, and advanced society for everyone. Rapid climate action is a no-brainer when you express it in terms like that.

CWR: With the International Year of Glacier Preservation coming up next year, how can we best leverage this opportunity to raise awareness, mobilise action, and drive meaningful progress to slow or stop the ice melt?

Dr. JK: Next year is the International Year of Glacier Preservation, run by UNESCO, the WMO, and championed also by Tajikistan. There’s lots of interesting events that’s going to happen throughout the year. The 21st of March will be World Glaciers Day, and this will be the first time we’ve ever had a Glaciers Day, so I’m really hoping that this will give these issues a lot of visibility. But it’s really important to stress that this is a year for Preservation and the only way to preserve glaciers is through rapid decarbonisation.

The only way to preserve glaciers is through rapid decarbonisation…

…we need to bring the risks home – make them feel real

We need to bring the risks home – make them feel real. This is not just about the beauty of glaciers – we have to talk about the essential role they play in our daily lives, their often overlooked value, and how they are melting away at an accelerating pace, with impacts hitting real people now. The continued loss of glaciers across the world will cause massive costs and damage in the future unless we get our collective act together and encourage our leaders to be courageous and set genuinely ambitious and transformational policies in a truly forward-thinking way.

Further readings

• 2°C Too Hot For Ice & Rising Seas – A Conversation with ICCI Director Pearson – Lead ice scientists are calling to “take 2°C off the table” and you’ll understand why from our conversation with ICCI Director Pearson, who makes it clear just how bad the situation is for our cryosphere, ice sheets & sea level rise but she still has some hope
• We never imagined we’d have to urgently deal with fast rising seas – Seas are rising so unimaginably fast that the urge to just give up is strong. CWR’s Tan walks us through 8 things she never imagined & her 3 hopes to slow down fast rising seas
• What Does 1.5°C Mean For Water? A Conversation with WMO Director of Hydrology, Water & Cryosphere Dr. Uhlenbrook – To unpack what unprecedented temperatures means for extreme events, melting ice & sea level rise, we chat to Dr. Uhlenbrook, WMO Director of Hydrology, Water & Cryosphere. Plus, see how soon he thinks we will cross the 1.5°C threshold

More on Latest

• Water for Climate: COP29 Five Takeaways – Encouraging to hear Hu, Founder & Director of silkroad.earth, say that water was increasingly being recognised for its role in connecting & broadening climate conversations at COP29. See his 5 key takeaways
• Can Water Security In Asia Be Ensured? – What type of solutions are needed to solve Asia’s water problems? What lessons can be learned from China? Global water gurus Biswas & Tortajada answer these key questions & more so we can head to a more water secure Asia
• Four Years On: Where is China on its Dual Carbon Goals? – Liu, award winning journalist & former CWR team member, provides an update & highlights the opportunity for China to again rise to the global climate challenge