Reflections On Ice – 5 Hopes & Fears

Reflections On Ice – 5 Hopes & Fears

By Debra Tan, Chien Tat Low 25 March, 2025

We are not prepared for the ice-cold truths but we need to be & quickly. Tan & Low share 5 hopes & fears on CWR's ice journey in the past year from the collapse of AMOC, geoengineering, wildfires to the critical roles China/Asia or even you can play to help Stop the Melt!

At CWR, it’s no secret that we are worried about ice and what this means for sea level rise (SLR) & freshwater reserves across Asia. We started this “exploration of ice” and what it means for our freshwater reserves back in 2018 when we explored the waternomics of the 10 rivers which flow from our Hindu Kush Himalaya Water Towers. We completed our mountains-to-oceans journey in 2019-2020 when we looked at the impacts of coastal threats to the key capitals that were located in our river deltas such as Shanghai, Ho Chi Minh and beyond to Tokyo, Singapore and Sydney.

“…we fear that the risks/impacts ahead may well be underestimated – even at 1.5-2°C, we would have triggered tipping points”…

…warming for the 12 months to Feb 2025 year was 1.59°C

We encountered many scary facts over the years and ranted about them here(2024); here(2023); here(2022) and here(2021). Our views of “ice risk” have evolved as more science has emerged on how ice is behaving as warming has accelerated. Now, we fear that the risks/impacts ahead may well be underestimated – even at 1.5-2°C, we would have triggered tipping points. And let’s not forget that warming for the 12 months to Feb 2025 year was 1.59°C.

It’s not pretty. A paper published earlier this year puts us at a 66% chance of breaching 1.5°C by the 2030s with a 10-30% chance of breaching 2°C by 2040-2060. Moreover, the La Niña which emerged in December 2024 (which can help lower temperatures) is now likely to be short-lived – according to the WMO, there’s a 60% probability that it will now end Mar-May 2025. This is all very very bad news for ice.

So on reflecting on ice, here are 5 recent hopes & fears … let’s start with the fears …

1. Over 40 top scientists say Atlantic current collapse is “closer than we think”

Scientific consensus is hard to reach. So, when over 40 of the world’s leading ocean & climate scientists sounded the warning in October 2024 of “increasing evidence for a higher risk of an AMOC collapse” – we noticed. Together, they penned an impassioned letter to the Nordic Council of Ministers warning that the risk “has so far been greatly underestimated” and that it would have “devastating and irreversible impacts” for countries around the world.

40+ scientists warning “increasing evidence for a higher risk of an AMOC collapse” …

…it it weakens or collapse = huge global implications…

We are talking about the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – the ocean mechanism responsible for moving heat around the planet – in short, it keeps the Earth’s climate stable. Clearly if this weakens or collapses, it will change weather as we know it and there would be huge global implications beyond the Nordic countries, yet there was little coverage of this in Asia nor the financial press.

According to the 40+ scientists, recent research since the IPCC AR6 report does suggest that “the IPCC has underestimated the risk and that the passing of this tipping point is a serious possibility already in the next few decades”. (The AR6 had noted with medium confidence that the AMOC will not collapse abruptly before 2100.) The scientists thus urge “Arctic tipping point risks, in particular the AMOC risk, are taken seriously in governance and policy”. Read the letter or watch the presentation by Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf who presented the letter at the Arctic Circle Assembly in Reykjavik.

…there’s also a growing body of research raising alarm of the possibility of rapid SLR caused by accelerated ice sheet melt

But it’s not just AMOC research that has evolved, there’s also a growing body of research raising alarm of the possibility of rapid SLR caused by accelerated ice sheet melt. Uncertainty in ice sheet behaviour with warming had led the IPCC AR6 to warned that sea level rise (SLR) “approaching 2-5m by 2100 and 2150 cannot be ruled out”.

At that time, the lack of published research on ice dynamics meant the scenario was deemed “low-likelihood” causing many to mistake it as an unlikely scenario rather than a scenario that is plausible but based on a few papers. Now, accelerated ice losses observed today can only be adequately captured by the IPCC’s “cannot be ruled out” scenario!

So, we may well have to deal with multi-metre SLR this century after all. Indeed, rapid SLR of 3-4m per century has occurred before; some 14,500yrs ago. Plus, there’s now a new fusion projection method led by Singapore that quantifies the “very likely” SLR range to be 0.5-1.9m on the high emissions path by 2100. The high end of this range should help address the question “What high-end sea-level rise should we plan for?” Don’t take this from us – hear from the authors of this new method directly!

We know it’s complicated so we’ve unpacked the latest science on ice sheet melt & SLR…

…check out our 13-factsheet guide to “Stop the Melt

So, it pays to “Choose Wisely” when it comes to both adaptation & decarbonisation – don’t get these wrong! We know it’s complicated so we’ve unpacked the latest science on ice sheet melt & SLR! And for more on what’s happening with the AMOC & Antarctic Bottom Water … check out our 13-factsheet guide to “Stop the Melt” to get the low-down on what’s happening with Ocean Warming, Sea Ice, Greenland & Antarctica. See these hidden risks now.

2. Geoengineering cannot save the cryosphere – hopes dashed by a separate group of 40+ scientists

Geoengineering has often been touted as a climate change solution – we can make ice, cool our planet with aerosols, cover glaciers with white sheets to stop them melting and so on. Although some of these have been highly publicised, they are nowhere near where we need them to be to work at the scale we would need, according to another group of 40+ eminent scientists who evaluated five highly-publicised polar ‘geoengineering’ proposals.

Separate group of 40+ scientists say “no current geoengineering idea passes an objective and comprehensive test regarding its use in the coming decades.”…

…these ideas should not distract from the priority to reduce GHG emissions

According to them, “no current geoengineering idea passes an objective and comprehensive test regarding its use in the coming decades.” Significant issues such as risks relating to technological availability, logistical feasibility, cost, predictable adverse consequences, environmental damage, scalability (in time and space), governance as well as ethics were highlighted in their paper “Safeguarding the polar regions from dangerous geoengineering”.

The paper notes that the proposed ideas are environmentally dangerous and says that given their feasibility challenges and risks of negative consequences, these ideas should not distract from the priority to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, we have seen such projects shut down – just this February the Arctic Ice Project experimenting with using silica beads to slow ice melt in the Arctic was cancelled as tests showed the plan posed risks to the food chain.

Our polar ecosystems are fragile – don’t mess with them. We had the privilege of listening to Professor Martin Siegert who led the group study present this realistic assessment of geoengineering at COP29 last year and it was clear that we cannot solve a problem with solutions that create other problems. So read the paper before you invest in these solutions!

Let’s stop kidding ourselves – we have to cut fossil fuels and yes, that includes oil

It’ll come down to money – maintaining geoengineering projects at the scale needed to preserve our cryosphere will require billions of dollars and lots and lots of electricity every year – surely this amount of money & energy is better spent on fast tracking decarbonisation?

Let’s stop kidding ourselves – we have to cut fossil fuels and yes, that includes oil. Incidentally, the paper notes that vested interests in fossil fuel production – those wedded to carbon-intensive industries & lifestyles – often champion geoengineering as it creates an illusion of a climate solution without committing to decarbonizing. But it doesn’t work and is highly irresponsible.

You get the picture, all these top scientists are saying we have to cut emissions if we want to save AMOC or our other cryosphere tipping points. So who’s responsible? And who should or can fast track decarbonisation? See which countries/ sectors can provide these in our deep cuts factsheet… we need these fast as 2°C is too hot for ice. There is no other choice.

3. Apocalyptic fires released 8.8GtCO2 in a year = 2023 GHG emissions of US + EU27!!!

The LA fires at the start of this year stoked the imagination of an apocalypse now and we may be entering a vicious cycle – accelerated global heating increases the chance of wildfire events which in turn release more emissions that further exacerbate climate change. Also, fires can destroy forest ecosystems and their carbon stocks, diminishing carbon sinks.

A shocking 8.8GtCO2 emissions were released in the March 2023–February 2024 fire season – this is almost the 2023 GHG emissions of the USA & EU27!!!

Don’t forget deep permafrost thaw emissions that aren’t included in the carbon budget…

…we have much to do but stay positive

And then there are emissions from permafrost thaw. Deep permafrost thaw emissions which are happening today are not included in the carbon budget. The numbers here are also shocking … check out our Permafrost factsheet to see how much of the carbon budget we really have left for staying below 1.5ºC and 2°C.

We have much to do if we want to “Stop the Melt”, preserve our freshwater ice banks and slow down fast rising seas. But we must also get real with where we are now – check out our current emissions path & see how much we’ve cut & how much more we’ll need to do.

Stay real! But stay positive … we still remain hopeful – here are 2 things that keep us going …

4. It’s encouraging to see that our work matters! From financial regulators, the UN Secretary General to top cryosphere scientists …

In response to breaching 1.5°C last year, we published a series of reports hoping to reframe the decarbonisation conversation to one on energy security. We tackled the fastest growing power-hungry sector ICT and looked at exposure of national power assets to rising seas as well as the exposure of global oil trade to rising seas.

Our work reframing oil transition as an energy security issue has taken off globally with the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres mentioning our findings in his 2025 Special Address at Davos

Rethinking / reframing these in business contexts works. The promise of green finance issuance in the fastest growing sector meant that within a year of intense engagement, the ICT sector will now be included in Hong Kong’s green taxonomy. Hong Kong’s Green and Sustainable Finance Cross-Agency Steering Group co-chaired by the Securities Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority now has a transition finance workstream and is developing transition finance sectoral principles with ICT identified as the pilot sector.

But more importantly, our work on reframing oil transition as an energy security issue has taken off globally with the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres saying that “the world’s biggest ports for oil supertankers will be overwhelmed by rising sea levels” in his 2025 Special Address at Davos. Here, we are very grateful to the ICCI which made this happen at COP29. This conversation has just started and there is so much more to be done … so watch this space!

At CWR, we believe that tackling complex challenges start with conversations and we are glad to see these “reframes” take hold. We cannot solve what we don’t understand, and we cannot see the opportunities without first knowing the risks. So, we’re hoping the “13-Factsheet Guide to Stop the Melt” can help everyone see the hidden dangers lurking behind ice melt so that we all can prioritise a conversation on ice losses & their impacts.

We’re hoping the “13-Factsheet Guide to Stop the Melt” can help everyone see the hidden dangers lurking behind ice melt…

…but since we’re not scientists, we wouldn’t have gotten here without our collaborative partners – top cryosphere scientists & institutes at the front lines

And since we are not scientists, we would not have gotten here without the help of all our collaborative partners from the research and science space. We are truly, truly honoured to have worked with these top cryosphere scientists/institutes who are at the front lines of climate change from our poles to high mountains in the Himalayas … so a VERY BIG THANK YOU to ICCI, CNC-IACS, IGSNRR-CAS & ICIMOD. Thank you all for providing guidance & reviewing the factsheets plus your patience in helping us unpack complex science into plain speak.

The first part of getting the facts down is now done … now for the engagement! We hope the “13-Factsheet Guide to Stop the Melt” will inform multiple stakeholders from business & finance to policymakers on the critical importance of protecting our cryosphere, inspire rapid decarbonisation to Stop the Melt to slow down rising seas and preserve our freshwater ice banks. We’re totally open to ideas so contact us if you have one or would like to join us to kickstart this important ice journey.

5. Seeing & seizing green opportunities & economies – Asia, yes we can!

Seeing and seizing the opportunity to dominate globally in renewables & EVs is exactly what China has done. We still remember way back when during the 12^th FYP when China introduced 7 new Strategic Emerging Industries (SEIs) – they were Energy Saving & Environmental Protection, New Energy (renewables), Clean-Energy Vehicles, High-end Manufacturing, NextGen IT, Bio-tech & New Materials. Many in business & finance thought they were pipe dreams at the start of 2011; even by 2015, doubts pervaded about Made in China 2025 – could China even build these? Why would they even want to?

The precarious state of our cryosphere brings a torrent of “hidden” risks we must attend to

Now, China dominates globally for most of these industries. And if you saw the liquidity constraints that the top leadership saw way back when, you too would understand that expansion into these 7 SEIs was not a nice-to-have but must-do for its national energy, food, water & economic security. All compelling reasons to drive change.

Today, we stand at a crossroads. The precarious state of our cryosphere brings a torrent of “hidden” risks we must attend to. It’s daunting but we must start somewhere and since 2025 is the International Year of Glacier Preservation, it’s clearly an auspicious time to for Asia to act.

It’s clearly time for Asia to act…we can & we must…

…can: Asia = >50% of GHG emissions = can deliver deep decarb…

…must: most vulnerable region

We can & must – we can because with over 50% of global greenhouse gas emission Asia can deliver deep decarbonisation this decade; and we must because Asia is the region most vulnerable to ice losses due to the importance of our Himalayan Water Towers & exposure to fast rising seas. We must develop with these in mind and urgently act to preserve our freshwater ice banks & slow sea level rise. Indeed, Asia is in a unique position to leapfrog ahead on transition as well as step up adaptation action to match escalating risks.

What key Asian economies do in the next few years on transition & adaptation will decide our futures – we could lock-in a bright future or a world of misery across the continent – so choose wisely! We’re sure if you knew the ice cold truths about what’s happening in our polar & mountain regions, you too will act to stop the melt to slow down fast rising seas and preserve our Himalayan ice banks!

Get on top of the facts now!

Further readings

• We never imagined we’d have to urgently deal with fast rising seas — Seas are rising so unimaginably fast that the urge to just give up is strong. CWR’s Tan walks us through 8 things she never imagined & her 3 hopes to slow down fast rising seas
• A Conversation with Dr. James Kirkham, Ambition on Melting Ice Chief Science Advisor & Coordinator – We sat down with Dr. Kirkham, Ambition on Melting Ice Chief Science Advisor & Coordinator at COP29 to find out more from their latest report, insider discussions at COP29 & what needs to happen to slow down ice loss
• 2°C Too Hot For Ice & Rising Seas – A Conversation with ICCI Director Pearson – Lead ice scientists are calling to “take 2°C off the table” and you’ll understand why from our conversation with ICCI Director Pearson, who makes it clear just how bad the situation is for our cryosphere, ice sheets & sea level rise but she still has some hope

More on Latest

• Help “Stop the Melt” with a new 13-Factsheet Guide! – New CWR 13 factsheet guide to Stop The Melt! The precarious state of our cryosphere brings a torrent of “hidden” risks from SLR to disappearing glaciers & more. It’s daunting but we must act. Start by checking out our guide done in collaboration with top cryosphere scientists/institutes who are at the front lines of climate change
• A Conversation with Prof. Shichang, Chair of CNC-IACS – What’s at stake when our glaciers disappear? From water scarcity to floods, Prof. Kang, chairman of CNC-IACS, shares the hidden risks of glacier melt, the urgent need for global climate action & more
• Sea-level rise: a new method to estimate the probability of different outcomes – including a worst case – A new method built on the IPCC 6AR now projects that it’s ‘very likely’ global sea levels will reach 1.9m by 2100 under a high emissions scenario. Authors of the new paper, Grandey & Horton breakdown their findings in The Conversation